Men's Basketball

Ott’s Thoughts: Creighton Charges Ahead Toward Potential Big East Championship

Ott's Thoughts Presented by State Farm -- Talk to Bluejay Alum Grant MussmanTwenty-eight days. When Creighton was busy putting the finishing touches on a 101-80 win over #6 Villanova last Sunday (ALL WBR COVERAGE HERE), that’s how many days remained until the 2014 NCAA Tournament Selection Show. I’ll be watching that event from Times Square or some other historic place in New York City, having attended Creighton’s first trip to a Big East Tournament at Madison Square Garden. And it’s very possible that the Bluejays will appear on the nationally televised broadcast of this year’s bracket with one of the “protected” seeds in the tournament, anywhere from a #4 to a — gulp — #1 next to “CREIGHTON” on the screen.

How’d we get here? There’s a perfect storm engulfing the Hilltop right now. It started with Creighton’s acceptance into the Big East, where bigger profiles and historic success combines with exceptional recruiting success and outstanding cities to offer CU a new challenge becoming of a great basketball program in its own right. Then came critical personnel decisions — Doug McDermott’s return for his final year of eligibility and the NCAA’s granting of an extra one for Grant Gibbs. None of that would have mattered without the improvements on both the offensive and defensive ends of the court brought forth by Greg McDermott’s coaching staff and reiterated by a savvy group of upperclassmen leaders.

Creighton’s one of the nation’s best basketball teams. Period. Whether you’re looking at statistics or judging by outcomes while controlling for strength of schedule, it doesn’t matter. If you’re trying to dismiss certain performances as flukes, or just chalking up their stature as a material benefit of Doug McDermott’s All-World status, don’t.

Entering the weekend, Creighton leads the nation in a multitude of statistics, including:

  • Efficiency (121.9)
  • Points per possessions (1.22)
  • 3-point percentage (42.6%)
  • Effective field goal percentage (59.2%)
  • True shooting percentage (62.1%
  • Assist-to-turnover ratio (1.81:1)

The team’s in the top 10 nationally in a host of others:

  • 3-pointers made (2nd)
  • 3-point field goal point percentage (4th)
  • Assists (2nd)
  • Assists per game (2nd)
  • Assists percentage (3rd)
  • Field goal percentages (6th)

They protect the basketball extremely well, averaging just 10 turnovers per game (338th lowest average in the nation).

The Bluejays have the sixth best RPI in the nation. The Big East has the fourth best RPI among all leagues in the country. Creighton currently sits atop its new league, a half-game up on a Villanova team it’s beaten — bludgeoned, actually — twice. In fact, CU owns seven double-digit wins over six top-65 RPI teams (Nebraska, Arizona State, Cal, Xavier, Butler, Georgetown, and Villanova – twice).

According to advanced statistician Ken Pomeroy the Jays have the country’s best adjusted offensive efficiency. CU’s adjusted defensive efficiency is 71st, making Creighton one of just three teams in the top 20 of KenPom’s overall ratings with a AdjD over 50. Still, the Bluejays enter the weekend #2 overall in KenPom’s ratings, ahead of schools like Louisville, Florida, Duke, Syracuse, and Wichita State.

Speaking of other teams, remember when it was nearly impossible for Creighton to play a statistically strong schedule each season? Here’s the season-ending Strength of Schedule for CU the past 11 seasons (11 is an important number, as we’ll read later).

  • 2013 – 70th
  • 2012 – 84th
  • 2011 – 158th
  • 2010 – 110th
  • 2009 – 156th
  • 2008 – 79th
  • 2007 – 30th
  • 2006 – 73rd
  • 2005 – 100th
  • 2004 – 146th
  • 2003 – 147th

Currently, Creighton’s KenPom.com SoS is 25th. Of the top 20 teams in KenPom’s ratings entering the weekend, the Bluejays have the 8th toughest schedule. Coach Mac’s team is proving night in and night out that what’s worked the past few years in Omaha translates just as successfully to a new league.

That new league might help the Bluejays snag one of the top seeds in March Madness. Win or lose, Creighton won’t have many opponents the next four weeks dubbed “weak” by anyone. Take Wednesday’s win at Marquette (ALL WBR COVERAGE HERE), for example. Are the Golden Eagles having a tough season by their traditional standards? Yes. Is Buzz Williams looking for any answers he can find to help steer a 15-11 team toward a strong finish? Yep. But was this Marquette team the preseason favorite to win the Big East? Sure. And a road game in Milwaukee against any Williams-coached team will almost always be a difficult challenge.

So when the Bluejays blew out MU — 5th in the Big East standings — 85-70 at BMOHarris Bradley Center (a potential landing place for the Jays this March, by the way, as the building hosts second- and third-round NCAA Tournament games), it was still a top-50 win. In past years, a win against the fifth-place MVC team might have still brought Creighton’s computer numbers down. Now, no matter the outcome, the top-to-bottom quality of the Big East will help buoy Creighton’s power numbers a bit. The current KenPom rating for CU’s final four regular season Big East opponents:

  • vs. Seton Hall (83)
  • at Xavier (39)
  • at Georgetown (65)
  • vs. Providence (56)

(NOTE: As I type this, Georgetown just finished absolutely obliterating Xavier in Washington, D.C., a top-50 win for a Hoya team trying every which way to be on the right side of the bubble come March 16.)

There’s really not a bad team in the bunch, especially when compared to previous late-season opponents of Creighton’s while in the Valley. It will make the Bluejays’ path to a championship that much harder, sure. But ultimately, when the selection committee sits down to discuss Creighton’s resume, barring an epic and unforeseeable collapse, the Bluejays will be hard to discount as one of the nation’s most successful and battle-tested teams.

So, just what is Creighton’s ceiling ahead of the NCAA Tournament? The Jays are 22-4. They’ll likely be Vegas favorites in their final four regular season games, two of which are on the road. They’re 3-1 against their final four opponents, with the lone loss almost assured to be avenged on Senior Night against Providence. It is reasonable to think they’ll enter the Big East Tournament — again, the postseason tournament for the nation’s fourth-toughest conference — at worst 23-7. At best? CU shows up to MSG 26-4 and clearly in the picture for a #1 or #2 seed nationally.

Unrealistic? Had you asked me in November, I’d say yes. But I’m not shocked by McDermott and these Bluejays anymore. That’s why it isn’t hyperbole when I type that the next few weeks are the most important in Creighton basketball history. We’ll turn a page after the Selection Show, when every team remaining is undefeated and enters the bracket with a record of zero wins and zero losses.

So, just humor me a few more minutes. What if Creighton does finish the regular season with four more wins. And what if Villanova can’t keep up and the Jays win an outright Big East regular season title. And what if the Jays play for a tournament championship at MSG the night before Selection Sunday? Let’s give CU a loss in that hypothetical: Creighton would be 28-5 and the regular season champions of the country’s fourth-toughest conference. That’s certainly enough to garner a #2 seed in NCAA Tournament. Right?

Of course, no one can say for sure. But the fact that the situation isn’t laughable is remarkable to me. One year ago today, rumors swirled about the “Catholic 7” and teams like Creighton and Xavier creating a “new” Big East at breakneck speed. Many around the country laughed then: about a team in Nebraska being considered in the Big East, about how a school from the little ol’ Valley would possibly be able to hang with the big boys like Georgetown and Villanova and Marquette.

Those giggles have subsided a bit as CU has forged a new path. And the final four weeks of the season are no laughing matter, either. Creighton can claim plenty of program-firsts if things work out their way —Big East championship, tournament title in MSG, top-five seed in NCAA Tournament history, etc. Here’s hoping the final 28 days before Selection Sunday make the Bluejays among the major beneficiaries when the brackets are released that day.

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