After 19 games, the Jays sit at 12-7 and 4-3 in the MVC, just slightly better than where they stood at this point a year ago — when they were 9-10 overall and 4-4 in the league. Many facets of the team have seemingly improved from a year ago: while they still have lapses, there’s no doubt they’re a better team defensively; they rebound much better; they give a tougher, better effort night in and night out. Right? That’s the perception.
But is it the reality?
- They’re averaging an identical 13 assists per game this year compared to last year.
- Last year’s Jays made 33.6% of their shots from behind the arc; this year, they’re just slightly worse at 33.1%. However, last year they made 251 out of 746 attempts; this year, they’re on pace to make just 214 as they have 131 after 19 games — and they’re on pace to attempt exactly 100 fewer shots from out there.
- Last year, they made 43.4% of their shots, making 812-1870. This year, their percentage is eerily similar at 43.7%, but they’re on pace to take just 1625 shots, almost 250 fewer. That’s no doubt due to averaging just 63 possessions per 40 minutes, down from over 66 a year ago.
- They made 71.6% of their free throws a year ago, and have made 73.9% this year. However, they attempted 693 free throws last year, and are on pace to take just 569 this year.
- 31.7% of their points came via the three pointer a year ago, compared to 31.2% this year. 20.9% of their points came at the line a year ago, nearly identical to the 20.5% mark they have this year. And as you’d then probably guess, 47.3% of their points came on field goals inside the arc last year, compared to 48.3% this year.
- All of which helps explain how they averaged 69.8 points per game last year, but this year, with almost identical percentages across the board, they’re averaging 66.3 points per game: They’re taking fewer shots on fewer possessions each game.
While Greg McDermott’s system of play has shortened games by playing at a somewhat slower pace, the team is made up of most of the same players, so not surprisingly, while they’re taking fewer shots they’re making nearly the same percentage of the ones they do take. What about on defense?
- Last year, the Jays gave up 68 points per game on defense, compared to just 63 this year. That’s good.
- However, their opponents are shooting an identical 41.9% from the field this year compared to last year. Opponents averaged making 23-55 shots per game a year ago, and are making 24-57 this year.
- Opponents made 33.7% of three-point attempts a year ago, compared to 36.4% this year. They made, on average, 6-19 from behind the arc last year and are making, on average, 7-19 this year, so the difference in percentage is that opponents are making exactly one more three pointer per game this year versus last year, in the same number of average attempts. (This surprised me — it seems like opponents have been better out there, and have taken more shots out there, than last year, doesn’t it? Funny how perception becomes reality in our minds sometimes.)
- Opponents made an average of 72.1% of their free throws last year, going an average of 14-20 from the line each game. This year, opponents are attempting nearly half as many — going an average of 7-12 from the line, good for just 60.8%.
- On the boards, last year Jays’ opponents pulled down an average of 10 offensive and 23 defensive rebounds each game. This year, opponents are pulling down an average of 10 offensive and 22 defensive rebounds each game. Meanwhile, the Jays averaged 10 offensive and 24 defensive boards last year, and are averaging 9 offensive and 26 defensive boards this year. (Not what you expected, is it? This shocks me, because it seems like the Jays have been so much better on the glass than a year ago.)
- The Jays turned it over an average of 12 times a game a year ago, and are averaging 11 turnovers this year. Meanwhile, they forced an average of 11 turnovers a year ago, compared to 10 this year.
So while it seems like we’ve seen improvement, it hasn’t been statistical improvement — this team is really damn close to last year’s team, statistically. They’re almost identical, actually. Adjusting for their easier schedule this year, their records are even essentially the same. They play a different style under a new coaching staff, but the same players are performing, on average, about exactly the same as they did a year ago — and their record is almost exactly what it was a year ago. Obviously some individual players are better than a year ago, while some are worse, to make the averages similar overall. So lets look at the individual players who returned from last year, and see what’s up.
- Antoine Young played an average of 25.5 minutes a game last year, averaging 7.05 points, 3 assists and 1.2 turnovers a game while shooting 40% from the field, 23.5% from three point range and 59% from the line. This year, he’s playing 36.1 minutes a game, averaging 12.9 points, 4.4 assists and 1.8 turnovers a game while making 38.5% of his shots, 29% from long range and 77.4% from the stripe.
- Kenny Lawson played 24.1 minutes a game last year, averaging 13.1 points, 6.7 rebounds and 1.4 blocks a game while shooting 53.8% from the floor and 79.7% from the line. This year? In 22.3 minutes a game, he’s averaging 10.3 points, 6.1 rebounds and 0.6 blocks a game. He’s shooting 45.8% from the floor and 75% from the line, though he’s on pace to shoot 46 fewer foul shots this year.
- Darryl Ashford played 20.5 minutes a game last year, averaging 7.4 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 1.2 assists while shooting 43.8% from the floor, 69.5% from the line and 31.5% from three-point range. This year in 25.7 minutes a game, he’s averaging 6.6 points, 4.1 rebounds and 2 assists while shooting 42.9% from the floor, 65.7% from the line and 38.8% from three-point range.
- Wayne Runnels averaged 13.0 minutes last year, with averages of 4.4 points and 3.3 rebounds in those minutes. This year in 12.1 minutes, he’s averaging 3.1 points and 3.2 rebounds.
- Kaleb Korver played 12.7 minutes a game last year, averaging 2.08 points, 1.6 rebounds and 0.8 assists while shooting 33% from the floor, 31.7% from three-point range and 50% from the line. This year, he’s playing 31.3 minutes a game, averaging 5.7 points, 3.7 rebounds and 2.4 assists while shooting 42% from the floor, 41.7% from three point range and has made all five of his free throw attempts.
- Josh Jones played 12.7 minutes a game last year, averaging 4.0 points, 1.0 rebounds and 0.7 assists a game, while shooting 40% from the field and 33% from three-point range. This year, he’s averaging 9,5 minutes, with 1.9 points, 0.6 rebounds and 0.5 assists, and is shooting 25.5% from the field and 13.6% (3-22) from behind the arc.
Those are the numbers. I’ll leave the conclusions, or the arguments over the effects of Mac’s style of play on said numbers, to you. As always, your comments are welcome at the bottom of the post!
(All stats courtesy of the super-dominant StatSheet.org — feel free to look into the stats and find your own comparisons and post them below.)
