Ed. Note: This is the first of a three-part series on the first half of the Big East slate. Yesterday, we looked back at Creighton’s first nine games. On Thursday, we’ll look ahead to the backstretch of the schedule for Creighton, and whether they can avoid a February swoon. Today, we look at how the other nine teams have fared so far.
Through the first half of the season, it’s clear that while the new iteration of the Big East may not be the old Big East, it’s doing just fine, thank you very much. According to Ken Pomeroy, the league is the third best in the country, trailing only the Big Ten and Big 12, and just ahead of the ACC and Pac-12. Nine of the ten teams reside inside the Top 100, four of them are inside the Top 50, and two of them are in the Top 10.
According to the official NCAA RPI, it’s the same story: eight of the ten teams reside in the Top 100, four are in the Top 50, and two are in the Top 10. Flawed metric or not, a lot of folks still look at RPI as gospel, and according to the RPI, the Big East is a beastly league.
Maybe you prefer NCAA bids as the best way to determine how good a league is? Tim Krueger, one of the best bracketologists around — though admittedly we’re biased on that — currently has four Big East teams in the field of 68 (Creighton, Villanova, Xavier and Providence). Joe Lunardi’s latest bracket also had those same four teams in the field. In other words, 40% of the league would be dancing if the season ended today.
However you define a tough league — elite teams at the top, depth from top to bottom, percentage of teams likely to be NCAA bound, out-of-conference wins over top competition — the Big East is one of the very best in the country. Here’s a look at how the other nine teams have fared over the first half of the season, and what lies in store for them in the second half.
Villanova
- 20-2 overall record, 8-1 in the Big East
- #7 KenPom, #4 RPI
- #6 AP Top 25, #6 USA Today Coaches Poll
Picked to finish fourth in the preseason poll, the Wildcats were expected to be a bubble team for the NCAA Tournament. Instead, they beat Kansas and Iowa in consecutive days in the Bahamas, didn’t lose a game until December 28 when they tripped up at Syracuse in their final non-conference tilt, and then won their first five Big East games. Their only two losses are the aforementioned game to Syracuse…and to Creighton.
A mainstay in the top ten of both major polls since early December, the Wildcats have positioned themselves, along with Creighton, as the top challenger for the league title. Five of their final nine games are at home, but three of their four road games are against the top of the league — Xavier, Providence and Creighton — which also might be three of the teams with the toughest home court advantages. Coupled with the fact that CU holds the tiebreaker thanks to the Jays’ win in Philly, and it’s an uphill battle for Villanova.
Providence
- 16-7 overall record, 6-4 in the Big East
- #53 KenPom, #37 RPI
The Friars were a popular dark-horse candidate to win the Big East, but came in sixth when the poll results were tallied. Those predictions were made based on Kris Dunn and heralded recruits Rodney Bullock and Brandon Austin being big contributors; Dunn played just four games before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury, while Bullock and Austin were suspended for the year, with Austin later choosing to transfer. Without those three, the Friars have somehow climbed into the NCAA Tournament discussion even after Tuesday night’s damaging home loss to St. John’s.
Five of their eight remaining games are on the road, away from the hostile environs of the Dunkin’ Donuts Center — including games at Xavier, at Georgetown, and at Creighton on Senior Night. That’s why the loss to St. John’s on Tuesday was so damaging. Of the top contenders for an NCAA Tourney bid in the Big East, Providence has the toughest road to hoe. Getting to ten wins, and thus a winning league record, became a lot tougher with the home loss to the Johnnies.
Xavier
- 15-7 overall record, 5-4 in the Big East
- #45 KenPom, #36 RPI
Xavier was seemingly a lock for the NCAA Tournament two weeks ago; they were 15-4 overall, and 5-1 in the league, perfectly positioned to make a run at the title with all three of their closest challengers coming to Cintas Center in the season’s final month. Then the Musketeers lost three straight to Providence, Seton Hall and Villanova. Suddenly they’re hovering around .500 in the league and they’re squarely on the bubble for the tourney.
After losing by 23 to Villanova on Monday night, the X-men have five days to get ready for a home game with Providence on Saturday. There’s no such thing as a must win on February 8, but this is pretty close — win that one, and they can still make a run at the tourney thanks to home games with Creighton and Villanova still to come. With the league’s second-best player in Semaj Christon, getting hot and running the table given their schedule is not out of the realm of possibility. Given their resume, they don’t need to go to that extreme to get back into the tourney discussion. If they can get to 11 wins in the league — meaning they go 6-3 the rest of the way — they’ll be back on the right side of the cutoff.
Jahenns Manigat takes a three as Marquette coach Buzz Williams looks on. (Photo by Mike Spomer / WBR)
Marquette
- 13-10 overall record, 5-5 in the Big East
- #57 KenPom, #86 RPI
The overwhelming preseason favorite to win the Big East, Marquette received five of a possible ten 1st Place votes thanks to returning two starters from last year’s Elite Eight squad. However, it was apparent from the get-go that this was a team that would struggle to score, and that Vander Blue would be much harder to replace than originally thought. An ugly 52-35 loss to Ohio State on national TV in the season’s third game gave Marquette a black eye and sent them tumbling from the polls; squandering every chance they had for a solid OOC win by losing to Arizona State, San Diego State, Wisconsin and New Mexico also hurt.
Once conference play started, they’ve alternated wins and losses through ten games, each win followed by a loss and vice versa. In other words, they’re the very definition of an average, middling team, and that’s what they are at 13-10 overall and 5-5 in the league. The final eight games are an even split of home and road contests, and an even split of games against contenders and also-rans — home games with Creighton, Xavier, Georgetown and St. John’s; road games with Seton Hall, DePaul, Villanova and Providence. It seems likely that this team finishes 9-9 in the league and heads to the NIT.
St. John’s
- 14-9 overall record, 4-6 in the Big East
- #44 KenPom, #37 RPI
St. John’s is a frightening team, because they’re giving off indications that their performance is finally catching up to their talent level. Since January 18, they’ve won four of five in the league, with the only loss being last Tuesday’s buzzer-beater in Omaha. Their 0-5 start in league play is one helluva big hole to dig out of, but they’ve nearly done it on the back of D’Angelo Harrison, who scored 27 over the weekend in a win over Marqutte and 22 last night in a win over Providence.
They played the second-toughest first half schedule in the Big East, according to KenPom, and get Creighton, Georgetown and Xavier at home in the second half. Their non-conference performance probably precludes them from getting an at-large NCAA bid even if they win out in the Big East, but setting themselves up for a decent seed in the Big East Tournament — where they have home-court advantage — could allow them to make a run at the auto bid. They’re certainly a team no one wants to play that weekend.
Seton Hall
- 13-9 overall record, 4-5 in the Big East
- #81 KenPom, #121 RPI
Somehow, someway, Seton Hall is 4-5 in the conference, and owns wins over Providence, Georgetown and Xavier. Picked to finish eighth (though the preseason bottom three of Seton Hall, Butler and DePaul were widely acknowledged as interchangeable) the Pirates have vastly outperformed the other two. Fuquan Edwin has come up big, scoring 30 last week against DePaul and 18 in a win over Xavier over the weekend.
It seems crazy to say, but a favorable backstretch schedule could see Seton Hall finish in the top six in the league and avoid the play-in round on Wednesday at MSG. Of their four road games, they have winnable tilts at Butler and DePaul, and they get Marquette, Georgetown, St. John’s, Xavier and Providence all at home.
John Thompson III yells directions to the Hoyas in their game against Creighton on January 25. (Photo by Mike Spomer / WBR)
Georgetown
- 13-9 overall record, 4-6 in the Big East
- #54 KenPom, #62 RPI
Georgetown was picked second in the league before the season started, and got off to a 9-3 start where they beat pretty much every team they were supposed to beat (save for Northeastern, an inexplicable loss), but lost to the two resume-building teams on their schedule (Kansas and Oregon). Then they jumped out to a 3-1 start in league play, and were right where they were supposed to be — second place, one game off the lead.
Five straight losses followed, and they found themselves at 11-9 overall, 3-6 in the league, closer to last place than first. Saturday afternoon, they pulled off a huge upset over #7 Michigan State in Fox’s made-for-TV “Super Saturday Hoops” event at MSG, and followed it up with a 12-point road win at DePaul. Their final eight games set up favorably for a potential run — home games with Providence and Xavier, and a final week consisting of a home game against Creighton and a road game at Villanova. If they can get hot and stop the hemorrhaging, those last two games give them two late-season chances at marquee wins, and if they win them, who knows?
Butler
- 12-10 overall record, 2-8 in the Big East
- #97 KenPom, #95 RPI
It was always going to be a struggle for Butler in their first year in the Big East, especially once Brad Stevens left for the NBA, but their first ten games have been more nightmarish than anyone expected. Four of the ten games have gone overtime, and they’ve won just one of them. In the other six, the closest they’ve been is seven points (at Marquette), with losses of 11 (at Xavier), 28 (at Creighton), and 17 (vs St. John’s) among the rest.
They have the worst adjusted offense in the Big East, they play at even slower tempo than Providence, and in conference-only games, they’re dead last in effective field goal %, and ninth in both offensive rebounding and three-point shooting. Coming down the stretch, they have road games at Villanova, St. John’s and Georgetown, so it’s hard to imagine things getting much better.
DePaul
- 10-13 overall record, 2-8 in the Big East
- #147 KenPom, #109 RPI
The only team in the league with a losing record overall is DePaul, the perennial doormat of the Big East. They lost their first three games of the conference slate to Georgetown, Marquette and Creighton, then rattled off two wins in a row over Butler and St. John’s…and haven’t won since. They got blasted by 26 at Villanova, lost by 17 at Seton Hall, and by 12 at home to Georgetown, dropping them into last place.
They’ll probably stay there, with KenPom predicting just one more win for the Blue Demons (the season finale against Butler). Among those eight remaining games are road clashes with Creighton, Xavier and St. John’s. Good luck.
