Yesterday, I previewed the four teams which I predict will finish 7-10 and thus, be forced to play on Thursday in Arch Madness. Today we get into the really good stuff: the top six teams, all of which I predict will earn postseason bids (remember, there’s a smorgasbord of tournaments now, much like bowl games.)
SIX // Indiana State
Is there a team with more unofficial nicknames in the conference than Indiana State? By my count they have three: Sycs, Trees, and ISU Blue. I will make liberal use of all three in this preview, and I’m just warning you now so you have time to remove the batteries from your confusion alarm.
The Trees enter year three of the Kevin McKenna Era and appear poised to see some improvement in the standings after two years spent rebuilding the program almost from scratch. Royce Waltman had allowed the Sycs to slip from the Michael Menser days of NCAA Tourney berths in 2000 and 2001, and McKenna has finally got the program back on solid footing.
Year Two was a disappointment, as they slipped from 15 wins to 11, but much like Missouri State and Chris Cooks, ISU Blue had extenuating circumstances. Leading scorer Harry Marshall was ineligible for the first eight games of the year, and potential All-Valley player Marico Stinson quit the team unexpectedly just one week before the season.
However, unlike Missouri State, they finished strong — winning seven of their last nine games, with three of the wins coming on the road including a stirring 12-point comeback at Illinois State that led to an overtime win. They then went 1-1 in the MVC tourney, giving them a great deal of confidence heading into the offseason.
Adding Iowa transfer Jake Kelly, who was an honorable mention All-Big Ten player and the Hawkeyes best player, make the Trees a possibility to be very dangerous. Harry Marshall is back and fully eligible, bringing his 13 point/3 rebound/4 assist average with him. A solid group of role players surround them, and its entirely possible that ISU Blue could move one or maybe two spots higher in the standings than most people (myself included) have them pegged.
What to Watch For: The Trees play LSU in Baton Rouge as part of the Preseason NIT, a game which could go a long way both towards establishing themselves as contenders and towards making the MVC a conference to be reckoned with among national media. Plus, if they can win, they’ll advance to Madison Square Garden where more marquee teams await.
Versus Creighton: January 1 in Terre Haute, February 9 in Omaha
Prognosis: 16-14, 7-11 in the MVC
FIVE // Southern Illinois
Southern Illinois isn’t used to being here. The conference bellwether along with Creighton for much of the past decade, the Salukis fell to 13-18 last year and missed the postseason. Their RPI the previous four years: 18, 37, 9, and 60. Last year: 150.
The good news is that Chris Lowery, one of the best coaches in the league if not in America, is still on the bench. And the midseason injury to Bryan Mullins, while a torpedo to the team last year, could well pay big dividends this year. After that injury, the Salukis were forced to play their young players, sometimes running five freshmen out on the court at one time.
Kevin Dillard is the best of that bunch, leading the team in scoring, assists and three-point shooting. Anthony Booker and Nick Evans, both sophomore front court players, look to build on their impressive freshmen campaigns patrolling the paint. Junior Carlton Fay, the second-leading scorer and rebounder, is also back. Who isn’t back is third option Ryan Hare, who was kicked off the team on Sunday following an early fall off-the-court matter with the police.
Tony Freeman, a transfer from Iowa, is finally eligible this year after sitting out last season. The Hawkeyes leading scorer two years ago, Freeman brings a veteran presence and experience to the Salukis, as well as big-time talent.
The Salukis have talent. They have depth, balance and a solid coach. Plus, there’s the matter of avenging a 13-18 season that saw MVC foes enjoy getting their shots in at a weakened power; six MVC teams won at SIU Arena last year, a place that formerly was inhospitable to visitors. They could finish as high as third, depending on how things break.
What to Watch For: A decent non-conference slate should allow the Salukis to build up confidence entering MVC play, while still giving them a couple of chances at good wins when they travel to UNLV and St. Louis.
Versus Creighton: January 13 in Omaha, February 23 in Carbondale
Prognosis: 17-12, 8-10 in the MVC
FOUR // Wichita State
Don’t look now, but the most hated man in the Valley is building a beast of a program, one technical foul at a time. Gregg “Double G” Marshall went to seven NCAA tournaments in nine seasons on Winthrop’s bench, dominating the Big South Conference with tough, physical teams that mirrored his fiery personality. During the second half of last season, we started to see the direction he wants to take the Shockers: a team that will win with muscle, brawn and defense.
As Jays fans, we saw this first-hand during the Shockers MVC Quarterfinal game against the Jays, when they used their toughness to overcome a 22-point deficit midway through the second half. Six months later, Marshall is still whining about the clock operator. The thing about Marshall is that, one ex-Omaha talk show host aside, he’s a fantastic interview that gives great sound-bites. You can see why people in Wichita love him. His teams play tough, he’s fun to listen to, and he wears his emotions on his sleeve.
An example is this quote from an Insider article on ESPN.com as Marshall answered a question about Toure’ Murry:
“He’s a kid who has unlimited potential. He’s got a chance to play at the highest level. The first time I saw him, he was 6-1, 163 pounds. That was the summer before his senior year. Now, in the summer of ’09, he’s 6-4 and he’s about 194 pounds. Our strength and conditioning coach has done a great job with him. His dad called me when he got home and said, ‘We’re going to have a party. I sent you a boy and you sent me back a man.'”
That last line is great stuff, but you wouldn’t get an anecdote like that from some coaches around the MVC. Rest assured, I still have a massive sports-hatred thing going on for Double G, but I’m glad he’s around because the Valley has been in dire need of coaches that are such fun to root against.
What to Watch For: The Shockers are in the CBE Classic, with a game against Pitt — and Iowa or Texas waiting for them on the other side of the bracket. For a team that could challenge for the Valley championship, those are big games as they make a name for themselves.
Versus Creighton: January 9 in Wichita, January 16 in Omaha
Prognosis: 19-10, 10-8 in the MVC, a bid in the NIT
THREE // Illinois State
The O-Hawk returns for his senior season, and is likely the front-runner for Player of the Year. But Osiris Eldridge will have a tough go of it without his running mate, Champ Oguchi, who gave the Redbirds a 1A/1B unmatched in the league. Defenses will be able to collapse on Eldridge with much less fear of repercussion this season, and how he reacts could be one of the biggest stories of the year.
Eldridge is an elite defender, frequently drawing the assignment of shutting down the opponent’s best scorer, and seemed to relish the role a year ago. Add in a the fact that he holds his own on the boards, and you’ve got a special player. Despite surrounding him with players like Oguchi, the Redbirds have not been able to break into the NCAA Tournament, at least partially due to amazingly bad non-conference scheduling, something they’ve tried to rectify this year.
Coach Tim Jankovich is an up-and-coming coach who is one NCAA run away from being among the hottest names in his profession. He’s won 49 games in his first two seasons, awakening a sleeping giant that had been in hibernation since Kevin Stallings left for Vanderbilt ten years ago.
Joining Eldridge in the backcourt will be Lloyd Phillips, a senior who averaged north of 10 points/4 assists a game last season. A decent defender, Phillips also makes 42% of his three-pointers, giving defenders something to think about. Dinma Odiakosa is also back, he of the 8 points/8 boards a year a go. Odiakosa, at 6’8″ a matchup nightmare for many teams in the Valley, could emerge as a second-banana to Eldridge if he can improve his offensive game with his back to the basket.
Illinois State, because of Eldridge, will be in contention for the MVC crown and it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see them win it. I’ve got them third because I happen to think the next two teams have just a little better balance and depth, but don’t be shocked if the Redbirds wind up with the one seed in St. Louis.
What to Watch For: Arguably, the Redbirds atrocious non-conference slate kept them out of at-large consideration for the NCAA Tourney last year. If they need an at-large bid this year, once again their slate won’t do them any favors. Illinois-Chicago, St. Bonaventure, Central Michigan, Niagara, Ohio and Utah are not the teams you build an at-large resume around.
Versus Creighton: January 20 in Normal, February 13 in Omaha
Prognosis: 21-8, 11-7 in the MVC, a bid in the NIT
TWO // Creighton
The Jays have to replace the MVC Player of the Year in Booker Woodfox, and their top returning scorer is the enigmatic P’Allen Stinnett. Game-in, game-out they don’t know entering the season who can be relied on to be their alpha dog, which is a big reason why the Jays cannot be picked to win the league. Their depth and overall talent is superior to all but a couple of teams in the conference, but that doesn’t always translate into victories.
Can they rebound? That’s been a common concern the past couple of seasons, and its a big question mark heading into this season as well. Kenny Lawson returns for his junior season to patrol the paint, hoping to build on his 8.5 points/4.5 rebound average of a year ago. He’ll have to play more minutes this year, as his primary backup the past two years, Kenton Walker, transferred to St. Mary’s. Chad Millard has shown a propensity to mix things up, but he’s not really tall enough to play the post and has a bad injury history. Justin Carter showed an ability to grab boards from the forward spot, but the Jays need others to grab rebounds too.
Can they find someone who wants the last shot? Booker Woodfox not only wanted the last shot, as he proved twice in his career, he had the ability to make game-winners.
Can they get the point guard leadership out of Antoine Young that they need to replace Josh Dotzler? Dotzler was much-maligned during his last three seasons following knee surgery, and just how subtly good he was will be evident early in the season. At times, he was the best defender on the floor, and rarely made the sort of mental mistakes that can submarine a team.
As with a couple of other teams, the Jays have lots of questions. What they have that the others don’t is 12 straight seasons with a post-season berth and 13 straight seasons with a winning record in the conference. There are two teams in America that can boast that. Kansas is one. Creighton is the other. Obviously, they’re not equitable teams, but there’s no debating the merits of such an accomplishment. No other team, in any league anywhere in America, has been as consistent for such a long period in their league.
What to Watch For: The first month of the season is as challenging as any in the Dana Altman Era. The Jays open the season at Dayton, a sexy pick for A10 champion. They then take on Big Ten favorite Michigan in the first game of the Old Spice Classic in Orlando, and either Marquette or Xavier in the second round.
Prognosis: 22-8, 13-5 in the MVC, a bid in the NCAA Tournament
ONE // Northern Iowa
The argument against the Panthers is this: they started 6-6, won 11 straight, then finished 3-4. In other words, if not for a sublime six-week stretch, they were an average team. I get that argument. I just don’t buy it.
The Panthers are the only team in the league to return all five starters, all of whom averaged between 8 and 12 points per game — giving them the sort of balanced attack few teams can match and that is hard to game plan against.
The best of the bunch is 6’9″ senior Adam Koch, who averaged 12 points/5 rebounds a game for UNI. Jordan Eglseder, their 7’1″ center, pulled down 10 points/6 boards a game. Kwadzo Ahelegbe averaged 12 points/3 assists. Ali Farokhmanesh had almost 10 points/2 rebounds a game, and hit 75 three-pointers to pace the team. And freshman Johnny Moran made the MVC All-Freshman team after 8 points/4 rebounds while grabbing 41 steals.
Perhaps more impressively, the Panthers were 8-1 in MVC road games, something hard enough to do once, much less to duplicate. Their road record might suffer a bit this year, but their 6-3 home record will likely improve to make up the difference.
Koch poses the biggest threat to Osiris Eldridge for Player of the Year honors, and given his superior supporting cast, could well take the award. Voters like to reward the best player on the best team, right or wrong, and Koch may well be the best player for UNI, the best team on paper in the Valley right now.
What to Watch For: The Panthers are in the Paradise Jam, where they will face off with DePaul, and then some combination of Tennessee, Purdue, Boston College or St. Joseph’s. Their slate also includes Iowa State, Iowa, Siena, and Wyoming. Its the kind of schedule that should they succeed, will take them far.
Versus Creighton: December 29 in Omaha, February 16 in Cedar Falls
Prognosis: 23-6, 14-4 in the MVC, a bid in the NCAA Tournament
