Usually when a team gets off to an 0-4 start in their league, it’s because they’re either not very good, or they’ve been decimated by a key injury or two. The 2013-14 Butler Bulldogs are neither; they’re 0-4 because of an inability to win close games. In their four Big East games, three of them went to overtime (losses to Villanova, DePaul and Georgetown, all at home) and in the fourth, they trailed Xavier by just three with two minutes to play before the Musketeers ran away down the stretch. Particularly brutal is the fact that they had a lead with 30 seconds to play in each of their last two games, only to lose both in OT.
Their non-conference resume is littered with the same sort of results. They lost 69-67 to #5 Oklahoma State in the Old Spice Classic, and had three chances to win it in the final minute — down 68-67, Alex Barlow missed a three-pointer with 50 seconds left; still down 68-67, Khyle Marshall missed two free throws with 9 seconds left; and down 69-67 on their final possession, Elijah Brown’s three bounced off the rim at the buzzer. The next night against LSU, they led by seven with about six minutes to play, proceeded to blow the lead, and lost in OT.
Overall, eight of their 16 games have been decided by five points or less, and five — yes, 5!! — of their games have gone to overtime. Butler is 1-4 in overtime games this season and 2-6 in games decided by five points or less; their only successes in close games were an overtime clash with Vanderbilt that they won 85-77, and a 59-58 win at Ball State.
The upside to being in so many close games is that this team is talented enough to have a chance to win them, even if they haven’t yet figured out a way to do that. A prime example is Kellen Dunham, a 6’6″, 185-pound sophomore, who leads the team in scoring (18.8 points/game), three-pointers (46-117, 39.3%) and free-throws (69-86, 80.2%). He reminds me of Colt Ryan, a player Jays’ fans are all too familiar with — Dunham is 6’6″ while Ryan is 6’5″, both are from small towns in Indiana, both have the ability to create their own shots, and both are deadly from pretty much anywhere on the court once they get hot. KenPom lists “2011 Colt Ryan” as one of Kellen Dunham’s closest comps this year, which is a bit unsettling; that’s the year Ryan lit the Jays up for 43 points in Omaha on 17-24 shooting.
Much like Ryan, when Dunham is feeling it he’ll shoot 15-20 shots a game with no remorse. He scored 30 points on 9-25 shooting against DePaul, 22 points on 7-18 shooting against Villanova, 32 points on 9-14 shooting against Washington State, and 29 points on 9-15 shooting against North Dakota. The most effective way to defend him is to keep him from getting hot early in the game — because once he gets hot, it doesn’t really matter how you guard him or who you put on him, his shots will fall.
The Bulldogs second offensive option is Khyle Marshall, a 6’6″ senior who averages 15.9 points and 5.6 rebounds a game. He’s more of a slasher than Dunham, with all but six of his field goal attempts coming from inside the arc — he’s 105-185 (56.8%) from the field, and 0-6 from three-point range. It will be key for the Jays to keep him out of the paint after he catches the ball, or failing that, to force him to go right — Marshall is a far better shooter when he goes left.
Inside, Kameron Woods, a 6’9″ junior, leads the entire Big East in rebounding and averages nearly a double-double per game at 9.3 points and 9.7 rebounds. He’s had monster games this year, highlighted by 10 points, nine rebounds and career-highs of four assists and four blocked shots in a career-high 41 minutes against Vanderbilt. He also had 17 points and 14 rebounds against DePaul, 12 and 11 against LSU, and 12 and 10 against Ball State. He’s a beast on the glass, and he scores his share of points, but he isn’t as aggressive at taking the ball to the rack as you’d expect for a 6’9″ player — too often he settles for jump shots rather than higher-percentage shots at the rim.
Erik Fromm (13-49), Elijah Brown (16-54) and Alex Barlow (15-40) are all capable of lighting it up from outside, but Fromm is the player most likely to cause headaches for the Bluejays, mainly because of his size — he’s 6’8″ and can cause the same sorts of matchup problems Ethan Wragge causes, though he’s nowhere close to being in the same league as Wragge in terms of shooting ability.
This will be a desperate Bulldogs team tonight, as their season is on the brink. If they lose tonight, they’ll drop to 0-5 in the league with Marquette next up on Saturday. In conference play, desperate teams with nothing to lose, playing on the road against the conference leader in front of a packed house, are dangerous teams. I caught myself rooting for Butler to pull it out over Georgetown on Saturday, because a 1-3 Butler team would have a very different mindset entering this game than the 0-4 squad that comes in tonight.
A more inexperienced team would be liable to get bit by the Bulldogs on a night like tonight. I think while it will be relatively close throughout thanks to a spirited effort by a Butler team desperate for their first win, the Bluejays will ultimately pull away for a 10-15 point win.
About the Bulldogs: Butler’s last win over a “Top 25” team came in January of 2013 at Hinkle Fieldhouse, when Roosevelt Jones hit a shot at the buzzer to defeat #8 Gonzaga, 64-63 in a primetime game nationally televised on ESPN. The Bulldogs were 3-2 against “Top 25” teams a year ago … Khyle Marshall and Doug McDermott were teammates on the USA Team at the 2011 FIBA U19 World Championship … Butler is 40-13 all-time when Khyle Marshall scores in double-figures, and the Bulldogs are 24-5 in Marshall’s last 29 games in twin-digits … Kameron Woods has averaged 10.7 rebounds over Butler’s last seven contests, and has had at least 12 rebounds in four of those contests. Additionally, he’s had at least seven rebounds in seven straight games and in 15 of 16 contests this season.
One Big Paragraph with Lots O’Dots™: Creighton has won 10 or more home games in 17 straight seasons, a streak they will push to 18 with its next home win … Creighton hasn’t trailed on FOX Sports 1 in its last 187:25 of game time from the CenturyLink Center, and have trailed for just 3:10 of 200 possible minutes in the five games FS1 has televised … Ethan Wragge needs 14 points to reach 1,000 in his career, despite making just 16 starts in his career — no other Bluejay in the 1,000 point club owns fewer than 59 starts … Doug McDermott needs 18 field goal attempts to set the school record for a career, passing the 1,739 by Rodney Buford … Tonight’s game marks Creighton’s 100th game all-time as a ranked team in the Associated Press poll.
The RUN-DMD Show: Since 1990, only two Creighton players have scored 30 points in consecutive games — Bob Harstad in 1990 and Doug McDermott on three occasions last season. McDermott is coming off a 35-point game on Sunday and is seeking to become the first Bluejay player with consecutive games of 35 points or more since Benoit Benjamin on January 17 and 19, 1985.
Nationally, the only player with consecutive 35-point games last season was South Dakota State’s Nate Wolters, who had 53 vs. IPFW on February 7 and followed that up with 36 points vs. Oakland two nights later. No one has done it this season.
Out of Context Ron Swanson Quote: “Breakfast food can serve many purposes.”
The Last Time They Played: On December 26, 1975, Creighton and Butler squared off in the Pillsbury Classic in Bloomington, Minnesota, with the Jays winning 68-62. Of note in that game, future Butler (and Nebraska) head coach Barry Collier scored 19 points for the Bulldogs in the losing effort. He also played against the Jays in the schools’ previous meeting, a 73-60 win on January 4, 1975 in Omaha, scoring 12 points with 9 rebounds. Collier went 1-6 against the Jays as head coach at Nebraska, including a 1-2 mark in Omaha, is now the A.D. at Butler and should be in attendance tonight.
The Series: Creighton leads 4-3, including three straight wins. The series dates back to a 27-22 Bluejay win in 1933; the teams played twice each in 1933 and 1934, then took a 40-year break in the series before meeting again in the mid-70s.
Greg McDermott is 0-2 in his career vs. Butler, with both meetings coming when he was coach at UNI. He has never faced Brandon Miller, and Miller has never faced Creighton as a coach. However, Miller has plenty of experience against the Bluejays, as he began his playing career at Southwest Missouri State, where he played CU three times in 1998-99 as a freshman. Miller played 29 minutes and had eight assists, one turnover and was a perfect 6-for-6 from the line, and he did not attempt any field goals. Creighton won all three games, 72-70 in Springfield, 79-76 in Omaha and 78-70 in St. Louis at the MVC Tournament. Interestingly, Miller was Ohio State’s Director of Basketball Operations in 2004-05 when Creighton topped the Buckeyes 65-63 in Kansas City.
Gratuitous Linkage: Fox Sports’ Reid Forgrave has been on the Bluejays’ bandwagon all season long, and in his latest piece, he writes that “I love this team. With its sorta-Euroball style of offense, Creighton might be one of college basketball’s unique attractions. They’re a team whose offense is based on ball movement and all five players playing together.”
This Date in Creighton Hoops History: On January 14, 2009, Creighton used a pair of comebacks to defeat Southern Illinois 73-72 in overtime. Down three with the final possession of regulation, Cavel Witter was fouled taking a potential game-tying shot and made all three free-throws to send the game into OT. Then in the extra period, the Jays found themselves down four in the final minute but hit a pair of three-pointers to take the lead, one by P’Allen Stinnett and the eventual game-winner by Booker Woodfox with 27 seconds left.
Completely Random, Totally Rad Music Video of the Day: In honor of Gus Johnson and Bill Raftery calling tonight’s game on FS1, here’s the Foo Fighters’ amazing cover of Gerry Rafferty’s classic (their last names aren’t spelled the same, but they sound the same! and it’s a great song!)
The Bottom Line: Creighton wins their tenth straight game, and does it before a rowdy crowd egged on by $1 beers. You bet.
Bluejays 83, Butler 69
