In another one of the quirks of this year’s Big East slate, Creighton and Marquette will meet for the first time in mid-February, and then see each other twice in the span of 11 days. The teams tied for ninth place a year ago, but both have had rebound seasons and find themselves on or near the NCAA Tournament bubble as they come down the home stretch. They’re both 16-9 overall, though the Jays are 7-5 in the league and Marquette is 5-7. It’s a must-win for both teams to keep their NCAA hopes alive, though it’s a more desperate situation for the Golden Eagles as they probably need to win out in order to get a bid, while CU “only” needs to win four or five of their final six to get there.
Unlikely? Yeah. You bet. But a year after being 14-19 and missing the postseason for the first time in a decade and a half, we’re discussing realistic scenarios for getting an at-large bid in mid-February, so unlikely or not, I’m enjoying the hell out of it. Your mileage may vary depending on your expectations.
How Creighton has gotten to this point is maybe more surprising than the fact that they’re here. In conference games, they’ve attempted the second-most threes (278), trailing only Providence’s 282, and they’ve made 86, good for fourth-most. But! They’re dead-last in the Big East in three-point shooting percentage because they’ve shot so many to make those 86 — they’ve been successful on just 30.9% of their attempts in conference play. Ouch. Here’s what’s interesting though: on two-point shots, they’re second-best in the league, making 212-413, or 51.3%. That’s worth keeping in mind as they face Marquette, who has two of the best big men in the conference patrolling the paint and are second in the league in blocks, averaging 4.8 rejections per game. If the Jays are unable to score at the rim in the half-court, they’ll need to do one of two things:
- Defend well enough to get stops, then get the rebound so they can run (and score) in transition, or
- Score from the perimeter, and that’s something they’ve struggled to do for the most part during conference play.
If the Jays can succeed at the first and make this a fast-pace, up-and-down game, depth could play a factor as Marquette’s regular rotation is just seven-deep, with those top seven playing just over 92% of their minutes. And if the Jays can succeed at the second, we’ve all seen what happens when they hit an opponent with a barrage of threes — it almost always results in a win.
Marquette’s advantage and best chance at victory comes in the form of the duo of Henry Ellenson and Luke Fischer, who are listed as an identical 6’11”, 245 pounds. Ellenson and Fischer combine for 28.9 points and 17.1 rebounds a game, and have both blocked 43 shots on the season (an average of just under two per game). They’re pretty different players, however, despite their similar dimensions.
Ellenson has emerged as the superstar half of that duo, as the freshman ranks among the nation’s best in both scoring (16.6 points per game, 13th best in D1, fourth in the Big East) and rebounding (10.1 per game, 21st in D1, first in the Big East). He’s reached double figures in scoring in all but one contest this year, and already owns 15 double‐doubles (which ties him for ninth in the nation among all players and second among freshmen). He scored a career-high 32 points in the victory over Butler on January 30 and had 26 points with 16 rebounds in the double-overtime win against Providence earlier this week, playing 48 of the 50 minutes.
He’s a dynamite player in the paint, but he also attempts the occasional shot from behind the perimeter — Ellenson is 10-38 from three-point range in conference play and 22-79 for the year, so not great, but just enough to keep the defense honest. Where he really kills you is by drawing fouls; he attempts almost six free throws a game, and shoots 75% from the line. Against a Creighton front line that has had difficulty staying out of foul trouble, that warrants mentioning.
Fischer is a player the Jays are somewhat familiar with, having both played against him a year ago and recruited him before he landed in Milwaukee. CU held him in check in two battles last season — in the first meeting, he scored two points with three boards in 25 minutes, and in the rematch in Omaha, he had 11 points with five boards. For the season, Fischer averages 12.3 points and 7.0 rebounds a game, though those numbers have dropped in conference play to 10.3 points and 5.8 boards. Unlike Ellenson, he doesn’t have enough range on his jump shot to take even a token three here and there — he’s attempted zero three pointers this year.
He’s also fouled out of three games in Big East action, while being in foul trouble in several others, which could be something to keep an eye on because of the aforementioned lack of depth on Marquette’s bench.
Another player the Jays are familiar with is Duane Wilson, the 6’2″ sophomore guard who averages 12.1 points a game. He’s had an up-and-down season in conference play, with really low points — shooting 2-15 from the floor and 1-10 from three point range against Xavier in January — and really high points, such as his 7-10 shooting display against DePaul, where he scored a season high 19 points. He’s their best weapon from behind the arc, making 47-132 (35.6%) for the season, and over half of his shot attempts come from long range. The Bluejays saw that first-hand a year ago, as Wilson scored 26 points in Omaha on 5-9 shooting from three-point range (and 8-18 overall) and 17 points on 3-6 shooting from behind the arc (and 5-10 overall).
Their fourth player averaging in double-figures is freshman Haanif Cheatham (11.4 points per game), who has combined with Ellenson to score 50.6% of Marquette’s points (90 of their 178 points) over their last two games. Their season average of 28 points is the ninth-best in the country among freshman duos, and gives them a nice inside-out punch. At 6’5″, Cheatham is the type of long guard the Jays have struggled to defend, though he’s been turnover prone (averaging nearly three per game) and isn’t a terribly efficient shooter.
Jajuan Johnson and Traci Carter have split time starting at the third guard spot, but Johnson is listed as the probable starter for Saturday night. Johnson is the slighter better scorer, averaging 8.9 points and 2.9 rebounds a game, while Carter is the far better distributor, averaging a team-high 4.5 assists a game. Both are effective defenders and rank among the top 15 in the league in steals per game. They play an almost identical number of minutes, so who starts and who comes off the bench is really just semantics; they’ll both see plenty of action.
It should be a high-intensity game, with both teams coming off of wins over ranked opponents and both teams in desperate need of a win to keep their NCAA Tourney hopes alive. If the Jays come out with the same defensive effort we saw against Xavier, shoot reasonably well from the perimeter, and get a solid performance from Mo Watson, they should be able to pick up the “W”.
Quick Notes on the Golden Eagles:
- Marquette’s roster, which featured just one player (Jajuan Johnson) with more than a year of playing experience with the Golden Eagles entering 2015‐16, is one of the youngest in the nation. According to KenPom.com, Marquette features the eighth‐youngest roster in all of collegiate basketball and the third youngest among the top‐five RPI leagues. Through the team’s first 12 conference outings, MU’s first‐year players are accounting for a league‐high 46.0 percent (1127‐of‐2450) of the team’s total minutes.
- The Golden Eagles score an average of 76.1 points per game and shoot 46.0 percent from the field, 34.5 percent from downtown and 71.4 percent from the free-throw stripe. MU is also +0.9 rebounds per game nad allows 72.3 points per game.
- Through games of February 10, the Golden Eagles are first in assists (16.2) and steals (7.8) per game in the Big East Conference. Those marks are good enough for 32nd and 38th in the nation, respectively.
Bluejay Bytes:
- Mo Watson had 32 points, seven rebounds and five assists in the win over Xavier on Tuesday, making him only Creighton’s second player with at least 32 points, seven rebounds and five assists in the same game since the 1980-81 season, joining Benoit Benajamin’s monstrous game of 45 points, 16 rebounds and five assists vs. Indiana State on January 19, 1985. Per Basketball-Reference.com, Watson is just the third Big East player in the last six seasons with a 32/7/5 game, joining UConn’s Kemba Walker (33/12/5) vs. Syracuse on March 11, 2011, and Villanova’s Maalik Wayns (39/13/6) at Cincinnati on Jan. 14, 2012.
- Tuesday’s win over No. 5 Xavier was the program’s eighth all-time victory over a team ranked in the top-10 of the Associated Press poll, and third in the last three seasons. Each of Creighton’s last three wins against top-10 foes have come by 14 points or more. It was Greg McDermott’s third win over a top-10 foe as Creighton coach, matching the three such wins by Eddie Sutton from 1969-74.
- Greg McDermott currently has 137 victories, one behind what John J. “Red” McManus compiled from 1959-69. A triumph on Saturday would move McDermott into a tie for third place on CU’s all-time wins list. McDermott’s .675 winning percentage is Creighton’s best since Arthur A. Schabinger’s .714 win rate more 80 years ago.
The Series:
Marquette leads the all-time series 49-31 after the two teams split the home-and-home series in 2014-15, with each program winning on its respective home court. MU secured a 53-52 win over Creighton on January 14, 2015 thanks to a last-second shot by guard Matt Carlino and multiple point-blank misses by the Bluejays as time expired. The Golden Eagles have won 22 of the last 29 outings, including 10 straight between 1975 and 1984.
Greg McDermott is 1-1 against Steve Wojciechowski as a head coach, but is 3-1 in his career against Marquette.
The Last Time They Played:
The most recent time long-time foes Marquette and Creighton met also came on Valentine’s Day weekend — you tryin’ to tell us something, Big East? — with the Jays victorious, 77-70. It’s a game remembered for Ricky Kreklow making the play of the year, and for hitting six three-pointers, leading to the creation of the “Kreklometer” on Twitter by Friend of WBR Garret Mueller. Here’s how we described the action:
Saturday we saw the play of the year, unquestionably, and arguably one of the top ten plays in CenturyLink Center history. With 3:49 to go in the first half, Ricky “Ricardo” Kreklow had already made four three-pointers, and after rebounding an errant shot by Marquette, he passed it to Devin Brooks. Kreklow sprinted to the other end and flashed open as he neared the hoop, but Brooks’ pass sailed wide.
No matter. Kreklow dove Superman-style, arms outstretched in front of him, body totally parallel to the court, and knocked it back inbounds to Austin Chatman…and then slid about three feet on his stomach towards the student section. He got up, ran back into the corner, and was wide open in front of the Marquette bench. Chatman got him the ball, and Kreklow quickly rose up and drained a three before Marquette’s players — or anyone in the building, really — knew what was happening. In about five seconds the play went from a nondescript turnover to a miraculous save to a dagger of a three-pointer. It pushed Creighton’s lead out to 34-25, and earned a standing ovation from a near-capacity crowd not only celebrating an unbelievable play, but appreciating that even in a down year, CU’s players continue to hustle, play hard, and sacrifice their bodies to make plays.
You want to know why nearly 17,000 people showed up on a bitterly cold Saturday afternoon — Valentine’s Day, no less — to watch a last place team? That’s why.
Here’s the play, in case you’ve forgotten it:
Gratuitous Linkage:
During Wednesday night’s epic 2OT win over #20 Providence, a Marquette student yelled out to the Friars’ Kris Dunn while he was at the free throw line, “I will literally give you $10 if you miss this shot!”
Dunn did, and the student made good on his word by sending Providence Athletics a check for $10. The story’s here from USA Today’s “For The Win”:
And Bleacher Report has an update with Marquette University’s response.
This Date in Creighton Hoops History:
On February 13, 2000, Creighton turned in an inspired defensive effort against Bradley to trip up the Braves 73-56 in front of 7,410 fans at the Civic. After three ties and 12 lead changes in a wild first half that saw CU lead 38-37 at the break, the Jays held Bradley to just six field goals in the second half (6-21), including an eleven minute scoreless streak to open the stanza. Kyle Korver led the Bluejays with 16 points and a career-high eight rebounds off the bench, nailing 4-of-7 three-pointers in a sign of things to come. Justin Haynes added 12 points on 4-of-5 shooting from the field, while Ben Walker scored 12 points and pulled down five rebounds and Ryan Sears scored 11 points and had four assists.
Completely Random, Totally Rad Music Video of the Day:
The Bottom Line:
Ellenson will get his 20 points and 10 rebounds, but no one on Marquette will be able to slow down — or match — Mo Watson. For that reason…
Creighton 77, Marquette 73
