Over the first two months of the season, Missouri State was the laughingstock of the MVC, owning just two wins — against noted heavyweights Philander and Malone (those are two separate DII schools, for the record, not a 70s soul duo). Among their 10 losses were embarrassing defeats to Jacksonville and Alabama A&M. The graduation of all-MVC player Kyle Weems, and the season-ending knee injury to Jamar Gulley over the summer (a player who averaged 10.4 points and 5.8 rebounds a year ago) left them with essentially one returning player to carry the offensive load — Anthony Downing, a senior who averaged 11.5 points a year ago, and to no one’s surprise, they had trouble scoring points early on.
Surrounding Downing is a young team; coach Paul Lusk plays six freshmen in his rotation, with four of them getting significant minutes. Those young players struggled in the non-conference even more than most figured they would — no one thought the Bears would go 2-10 in the non-conference with both wins coming over DII squads — but as typically happens with talented youth, they’ve started playing with more confidence as the season has progressed.
One of those players is Marcus Marshall, a 6’3″ guard who has started almost every game this year. He averages 10.1 points a game, but has been really inconsistent; for every 6-10 shooting night he has (against Valpo) he’s had a 1-12 night (against Tulsa). The Bears like what they’ve seen so far from Marshall, and believe he can be one of the cornerstones of their rebuilding effort. The other freshman building block is Gavin Thurman, a 6’6″ 225 pound forward in the mold of a Kyle Weems, in that he can score both in the paint and from behind the arc. He’s come off the bench in all but one game this season, but plays nearly 20 minutes a night.
The Bears defense has been fairly solid all year, as holding high-scoring San Diego State to 60 points can attest; they give up an average of 62.4 points a game, which is fourth in the MVC and 92nd in the country. Most of that success is attributable to their defense on the perimeter. They’ve surrendered just 4.6 treys per game, and allowed opponents to shoot 27.7% from behind the arc. MSU ranked 18th in this week’s NCAA rankings in 3-point field goal percentage defense, and the Bears have not allowed more than 8 trifectas in any game this year. They’ve also been sure-handed with the ball, and they’ve had fewer turnovers than 13 of 16 opponents this season.
After their 2-10 stretch over the first two months, a 3-1 start in MVC play has turned a lot of heads. How has a team that couldn’t beat anyone suddenly won three of four? The simple answer is their offense has finally found it’s sea legs, and combined with what had already been a decent defense, that’s given them enough punch to win some games. The Bears shot a collective 37.6% from the field in non-conference play, worst in the MVC. However, since the start of Valley play, the Bears have made 47.4% of their shots and more impressively, have connected at a 46% clip or better in six of eight halves in their four Valley games.
Helping their cause offensively is the fact that Anthony Downing, used to being the second or third option, has finally grown into the role of team leader. The Bears’ only active senior is averaging 20.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 2.0 steals per game in Missouri Valley competition while firing at a 86.2% clip (25-for-29) from the free throw line. He’s been on fire the last two games, hitting at a 70% clip from the field (14-for-20).
It must be noted, however, that all three of their MVC wins have come against teams who are a combined 0-12 in the league — Southern Illinois, Drake and Illinois State. The Redbirds are a better team than that record indicates, but the Bulldogs and Salukis are likely the two worst teams in the league not named Missouri State. So while they’re to be commended for starting 3-1 in the league, no one will be convinced it’s anything more than a nice story until they beat a contender or two. Over their next four games, they get Creighton, Indiana State, Bradley, and Wichita State, so as the schedule gets significantly tougher, they get the chance to prove they’re for real…or that their success was a product of their schedule.
They remain a team short on big men — their two post players, Christian Kirk and Drew Wilson, are both 6’7″ putting them at a distinct disadvantage against bigger teams. That’s a big reason why they’re minus-4.3 on the glass for the season, worst in the Valley and 303rd in the country (yes, even worse than a Drake team who was outrebounded by Creighton 40-22 on Tuesday). Will the Bears employ the same strategy a similarly small Drake team did, clogging up the lane to keep Gregory Echenique and Doug McDermott from killing them inside and daring the Jays to beat them with jump shots? That hasn’t worked for any opponent yet, but it’s probably Missouri State’s only hope — outside of getting a red-hot offensive performance and managing to get Echenique and/or McDermott into early foul trouble — so it wouldn’t surprise me to see them try it and hope for the best.
Creighton is favored by 14, but this is a road game in a tough environment so while that’s what *should* happen, you never know. It’s being advertised as a “Blackout” game, with all fans asked to wear black shirts, as the Bears welcome in the highest-ranked team to ever play in Springfield. If Creighton comes out shooting cold and Missouri State hits a few shots, suddenly the Friday night crowd gets rolling and the young Bears could believe the 3-1 start in league is for real — and then the Jays will have a battle on their hands. I think the Jays’ overwhelming talent and veteran play can overcome even that scenario, but this isn’t the gimme some fans are making it out to be. Yes, Creighton wins this game 19 out of 20 times. But let’s hope tonight isn’t the 20th time.
About the Bears: Missouri State has won six of the last seven meetings with Creighton, including three of the last four at JQH Arena … Nathan Scheer is 10-for-16 (.571) from 3-point range in MVC games … The Bears are 5-2 when out-rebounding or matching their opponents and 0-9 when getting beat on the glass … Missouri State will have played four of the five Preseason All-MVC players in consecutive games. Before meeting CU’s Doug McDermott tonight, the Bears squared off (in order) with Evansville’s Colt Ryan (13 points), Drake’s Ben Simons (17 points) and Illinois State’s Jackie Carmichael (21 points) … Paul Lusk and CU’s Greg McDermott are among 62 DI coaches who also earned all-conference honors as a DI player.
One Big Paragraph with Lots O’Dots™: Creighton has made 55.1% of its shots in four MVC games to date, and eleven of its 12 men to score in league play are shooting 50% or better from the field. Only one other MVC team has had a single league game where they made 50 percent this season, as Evansville shot 57.7% vs. Southern Illinois on Jan. 5th … The team with the halftime lead has lost the last five meetings between Creighton and Missouri State. Creighton has won 24 straight games when tied or leading at halftime, dating to December 28, 2011 vs. Missouri State … Creighton’s 91-61 victory over Drake on Tuesday was its largest in any MVC game since a 93-56 win over Evansville on January 15, 2003 … Creighton has played 16 games this season, but has yet to have a single lead change in the final five minutes in any of them. Last year’s Creighton team went 5-1 in games that went to overtime or had a lead change in the final five minutes of regulation and were 7-1 in games decided by six points or less.
The RUN-DMD Show: Doug McDermott has been his usual brilliant self in MVC play, but his teammate Gregory Echenique has quietly become nearly as indispensable offensively. Echenique is on the best offensive roll of his career, scoring in double-figures eight of the last nine games; over that span, he has three double-doubles, and is averaging of 11.8 points, 8.3 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game.
Echenique has shot better than 50% from the field in nine of the last 10 games, and continues to lead the MVC in field goal percentage at 67.6%. Echenique’s 67.6% marksmanship from the field is on pace to set not only the Creighton (67.4%) mark, but also the MVC single-season mark (also 67.4%) as well.
The Last Time They Played: Last year’s trip to Springfield featured 16 ties and 10 lead changes before Creighton used a pair of defensive stops in the last 10 seconds to emerge with a 66-65 win. The Bears trailed by one with 22.8 seconds left, when defending Valley Player of the Year Kyle Weems missed a shot; they got another chance after the Jays missed the front end of a 1-and-1 with 6.4 seconds left, but Anthony Downing’s pull-up jumper at the buzzer missed, and the Jays emerged victorious.
Each of Creighton’s last two trips to Springfield have come down to the final seconds; two years ago, Weems hit a game-winner with 14 seconds left for the win.
The Series: Creighton has won nine of the last 15 meetings to claim a 31-28 lead over Missouri State in the series, but the Bears have six of the last seven contests. Missouri State is 18-8 all-time at home against Creighton, including a 3-2 mark at JQH Arena.
Greg McDermott is 7-11 in his career (and 1-4 at Creighton) against Missouri State.
Gratuitous Linkage: The Bears are battling the flu, and as Lyndal Scranton of the Springfield News-Leader reports, Marcus Marshall and Dorrian Williams both missed practice on Thursday with it. They’re both game time decisions to play tonight, though it’s expected they will.
This Date in Creighton Hoops History: On January 11, 1992, Creighton beat Southwest Missouri State 53-49 at the Civic for the first MVC home win of the Rick Johnson Era. The Jays held Charlie Spoonhour’s Bears to just 12 points over the final 15:30 of the game, including a ten-minute stretch between field goals, erasing a 37-30 SMS lead and allowing them to eek out the victory. Duan Cole led the way with 20 points on just nine field goal attempts, going 6-9 from the floor and 7-11 from the line.
Completely Random, Totally Rad Music Video of the Day: It’s a “Blackout” in Springfield tonight? Whatever. There’s only one “Blackout” officially recognized by the Primer — the classic song from metal legends Scorpions.
The Bottom Line: This one is close for a while, but the outcome is never in doubt.
Jays 78, Missouri State 64
