Anything is possible in St. Louis, on or off the basketball court. I’ve witnessed a lot of unbelievable things at the Kiel/Savvis/Scottrade/Whatevertheheckitscallednow Center, and an almost equal number of unbelievable things at establishments populated by people in town for the tournament.
Possibilities.
For the six teams who begin play tomorrow, just three wins stand between them and an NCAA Tournament berth. In many cases, each of those six teams will be playing teams they’ve already defeated at least once during the season, adding to the hope that they can be the only team to emerge with three wins. It doesn’t seem so far-fetched, even for teams seeded fifth or sixth like Creighton or Evansville, when you think about it in those terms.
Any of the top six teams can absolutely win this weekend. Its more likely that Missouri State or Wichita State emerges with the auto bid, but to write off the others would be foolish. Still, when someone who writes for another site asked me for one word to describe Arch Madness to someone who hadn’t been there before, it wasn’t “Possibilities” that came to mind. It was “Thunderdome.” The last three years, despite the MVC being a one-bid league, there was hope of additional teams getting an at-large. Had Wichita State won the title last year, UNI most certainly would have still been in. The year before, Illinois State and Creighton both had their bubbles burst long after the last game in St. Louis.
This year is different. Everyone knows, going in, that the MVC is a one-bid league. Whoever wins the weekend gets the bid, and everyone else gets relegated to second-and-third rate tourneys. And so the old “Two men enter, one man leaves” Thunderdome analogy seems apropos. Ten teams enter, one team leaves.
Wichita State and Missouri State had wonderful seasons, but neither is going dancing without a win on Sunday. That’s motivation. Indiana State had a great, breakout season but might well be stuck back in the CBI without three wins. Northern Iowa, Creighton and Evansville are staring a CBI or CIT bid in the face without three wins this weekend. Drake, Southern Illinois, Bradley and Illinois State are staring at the end of their seasons — or in the case of the seniors, at the end of their careers — without three wins.
The quality of the teams may be down from the past handful of years, but the intensity of the games will be greater. Because every team knows the only avenue to the Big Dance is by winning three games.
***
Creighton and Northern Iowa will be meeting for the second time in six days, which is the sixth time the Jays have played a team in the MVC Quarterfinals that they played in the final regular season game. That’s well over half of the total times it has happened in the MVC, which is an absolutely bizarre stat. Its also the third time in the last four years its happened to Creighton, which is even more astronomically strange. Conventional wisdom would seem to hold that it would be tough to beat someone twice in a week. Yet in four of those six occurrences, the team that won the final regular season game also won the MVC Tourney meeting.
So much for conventional wisdom.
Of course, Creighton won last Saturday, so this trend is good news. The bad news? Creighton is 1-3 all time as a five seed, and the five seed has only won Arch Madness one time (Indiana State in 2001).
Northern Iowa comes into the game having lost six of seven without Lucas O’Rear, and they’ve been outrebounded in four of their last five. The odd thing about the game last week, though, was that the Panthers had been averaging ten more three-point attempts a game since losing O’Rear, and then they proceeded to shoot just 12 of them against Creighton, the fewest attempts of any game all season. Seriously. Whether that was a conscious gameplan by Ben Jacobson, or simply a result of what Creighton’s defense gave them, isn’t really clear, but its obvious they played much more in the paint than expected.
Despite the loss of the numbers O’Rear put up, its the intangibles where his loss really shows up, his leadership in close games late and ability to make big plays for teammates. Its also shown up defensively, as the Panthers have given up 70 or more points in six of the seven games O’Rear has been out — including the first six he missed, which is the first time since 2002-03 they gave up 70 or more in six straight. That’s even more remarkable when you consider in 162 games of the Ben Jacobson Era, the Panthers have given up 70 or more just 30 times.
Kwadzo Ahelegbe leads them in scoring at 14.3 a game, and does a good job running their offense (though he’s been turnover prone at times, averaging 2.1 a game). However, he really struggled on Saturday in Omaha, scoring just four points on 2-8 shooting. He had three assists, but also three turnovers. Jake Koch averages 9.7 points a game, shoots 34% from behind the arc, and is the team’s leading rebounder in the absence of O’Rear with a 5.03 average. All of that held true on Saturday: he had 10 points and led the team with six rebounds.
Johnny Moran averages 9.4 points and has made the most three pointers on the team, 56, shooting 36% from long range, which is part of the reason he led the Panthers with 16 points in the game last week. He was 2-4 from behind the arc, while the rest of the team was 2-8.
Anthony James has been the breakout star, as the sophomore who played sparingly on the Sweet 16 team a year ago has become their deadliest shooter and most explosive offensive weapon. He averages 12.7 points a game, but is shooting 41.7% from three-point range (40-96). He had a pretty nice game in Omaha, scoring 10 points with five rebounds while taking all of his attempts inside the arc, where he shot 4-9.
All of those dribble drives and shots in the paint led to several Creighton players being in foul trouble, notably Antoine Young, who picked up two early fouls and sat out the final 15 minutes of the first half. When he left, Creighton led 11-5 and was really playing well offensively. Without him, they looked absolutely atrocious, scoring just eight more points in the final twelve minutes en route to a 28-24 UNI lead.
Its no shock that when he returned in the second half, they immediately began looking better, and the 11-0 run that opened the second frame — in just under four minutes — was ample evidence of that. And so the key to Friday may just be something that hasn’t really been a worry all season long. Namely, keeping Antoine Young out of foul trouble.
Without O’Rear, Northern Iowa has struggled to beat anyone, and that will likely continue on Friday. But without Young, Creighton will also struggle to beat anyone — if UNI is able to get him on the bench early, as they did on Saturday in Omaha, this becomes a toss up.
About the Panthers: UNI has an 12-6 record (with three titles) at the MVC Tournament since Ben Jacobson arrived on staff in 2001-02. Prior to that, UNI owned a 4-9 mark all-time (with no titles) at the Valley Tournament … Creighton is the only current MVC school that the Panthers have not beaten in the MVC Tournament. Creighton is 1-0 all-time vs. UNI in the Valley Tournament having scored an 80-65 victory over the Panthers on March 2, 2002 … Friday’s game will mark the sixth time UNI has taken part in the No. 4/No. 5 matchup in the MVC Tournament, and they’re 2-3 in previous 4 vs. 5 contests … UNI ranks No. 2 in the nation in turnovers per game (9.5), committing 10 or fewer turnovers 21 times in 30 games … UNI ranks No. 16 in the nation in free throw percentage (76.2 percent), and has made 25 of its last 26 free throws over the past two games.
One Big Paragraph with Lots O’Dots™: Creighton is 1-3 all-time as the fifth seed at the MVC Tournament, losing to Bradley in 1985, beating Southern Illinois but losing in the semis to Bradley in 1988, and losing to Missouri State in 1996 … The fifth seed is 16-19 all-time in the MVC Tournament, and has won its quarterfinal round match-up in five of the past 10 years. In fact, four of the past 10 years, the No. 5 seed has also beaten the top seed to reach the tournament final … Greg McDermott is seeking to become the first coach in MVC history to win a Valley Tournament title at more than one school, having won a title in 2004 at Northern Iowa … Creighton has won the MVC Tournament seven of the last 10 times it has won its first game in St. Louis … Creighton is the only Valley school that has not appeared in the play-in round since that format began in 1997 … Kaleb Korver is attempting to become the third member of his family to win a Valley Tournament title. Oldest brother Kyle won titles in 2000, 2002 and 2003 at Creighton, while older brother Klayton won a title at Drake in 2008.
The Last Time They Played: Creighton scored the game’s first eight points and led by as much as 16-7 early on while making its first four shots from three-point range. The game changed as the stars slowly accumulated foul trouble. Creighton’s Antoine Young was whistled for his second foul with 15:00 left in the first half, while Gregory Echenique followed him to the bench with two fouls with 8:30 left.
UNI would close the first half on a 17-8 run, capped by Johnny Moran’s rainbow three-pointer to beat the buzzer. Kaleb Korver hit two early three-pointers to lead the Jays at intermission, while Moran topped UNI with seven at the break. Creighton opened the second half on a 14-3 fury, including a three-pointer from Young, to go up 35-28.
The Series: Creighton leads the all-time series with Northern Iowa by a 27-15 count, including a 1-0 mark in Valley Tournament play. That meeting came on March 2, 2002, when the Jays defeated Greg McDermott’s first UNI team 80-65 in the quarterfinals.
The teams split two meetings this season, with the home team prevailing each time. UNI won 71-65 on Jan. 26th, while Creighton won 63-55 on Feb. 26 in Omaha. Creighton has won 11 of the last 15 and 22 of the last 29 meetings. Ten of the last 14 contests have been decided by nine points or less.
Gratuitous Linkage: LETS GO.
Out of Context Simpsons quote: “Oh, so they have Internet on computers now!” -Homer Simpson
This Date in Creighton Hoops History: On March 4, 2007, Creighton won the MVC Tournament for the sixth time in the last nine years by defeating 11th-ranked Southern Illinois 67-61. Tournament Most Outstanding Player Nate Funk led the Bluejays (22-10) with 19 points, while fellow senior Anthony Tolliver recorded his sixth double-double of the season with 15 points and 13 rebounds, just one shy of his career-best. Tolliver was named MVC all-tournament, as was another CU senior Nick Porter. Porter added 15 points and a team-best six assists.
Completely Random, Totally Rad Music Video of the Day: Yup.
The Bottom Line: Without Lucas O’Rear, Northern Iowa has struggled, winning just one game. They will not win on Friday either.
Creighton 72, Northern Iowa 64
