Over the last three games, Creighton has outscored their opponents by a single point (111-110) in the first half. They’ve won all three because they’ve outscored them a combined 150-91 in the second, running teams into the ground with their fast pace as the game goes on. Of course, it doesn’t hurt that the Jays are shooting 65.6% from the floor in the second half of those games (or that Justin Patton has been a perfect 15-15 from the field the second half of them, either).
The Jays have played at a 77-possession-per-game pace, putting them among the top teams in the country at pace of play, and in starting the season 7-0 have pushed tempo at every turn and not yet played an opponent that was able to force them into a half-court game for 40 minutes. Even the notoriously plodding Wisconsin Badgers — the fourth-slowest team in America in terms of adjusted tempo at 63.3 — couldn’t totally dictate tempo against the Jays, as that was a 70 possession game.
Akron, the Jays’ opponent Saturday night, won’t fall into the trap that so many have this year — they’re not going to try to run with the Bluejays. The two-time defending MAC Regular Season Champion Zips average 69.5 possessions per game, ranking 305th in D1 (out of 351 teams), and their adjusted tempo is even lower at 68.4. They use an average of 17.6 seconds per offensive possession, ranking them 230th in average possession length, and their defense forces teams to hold the ball even longer before shooting — 17.9 seconds, on average, good for 293rd in D1. The Zips are a good offensive team, but they get there at a much more methodical pace than the Bluejays do.
The Zips are not a team that drives into the paint off the dribble, or even creates off the dribble. Their offense primarily runs inside-out, as they look to get the ball into the post and let Isaiah Johnson (6’10”, 290 pounds) go to work backing his defender down or kicking it out to an open shooter if the defense sends a double-team. Johnson has made 67% of his shots this year (42-62), consistently scoring at or near the rim to the tune of 15.7 points per game. Because of that ridiculous efficiency, teams often opt to send a double-team at him to force him to get rid of the ball to a shooter on the perimeter for a lower-percentage shot, rather than give up an almost sure-thing to a center who’s bigger than almost every other big man he plays against. The result? Believe it or not, Johnson leads the team in assists at 2.7 per game, and he’s assisted on 30% of his team’s made baskets, with the Zips’ shooters making teams pay.
Among those shooters are Antino Jackson, a 5’11” guard who shoots 42.9% from deep (15-35), Josh Williams, a 6’2” guard who shoots 36.6% on threes (15-41), and 6’1” guard Noah Robotham, who makes 37.1% (13-35) of his threes. All totaled, nine different Zip players have made a three-pointer this year; among the others are 5’8” freshman Tavian Dunn-Martin (10-21, 47.6%) and 6’10” forward Kwan Cheatham, Jr. (9-27, 33.3%).
Robotham will miss the game, according to the Akron-Beacon Journal’s George M. Thomas, but that still leaves plenty of scorers.
As a team, they average 10.7 made three-pointers a game, and make 37.9% of their shots from long range. 51.8% of their shot attempts come from three-point range, which is the fourth most in D1. And of their top six players in terms of minutes played, all of them average more than one made three-pointer per game except for Johnson. In other words, there’s “live by the three, die by the three” and then there’s Akron.
How will the Bluejays defend the Zips? Doubling the post to keep Johnson from scoring almost plays into their hands. But without the big body of Zach Hanson to bang with him, any other player the Jays defend him with — Justin Patton, Martin Krampelj, or Toby Hegner — gives up about 75 pounds in size and an inch or two in height, except for Patton. It’s a tough task to ask them to go it one-on-one. It will be interesting to see if the Jays go straight-up in order to stay out on their shooters, or double the post and rely on their wings to close out on whoever Johnson kicks it out to.
The Zips outrebounded their opponents by nearly three boards a game last year, and have continued that trend this year, owning a +3.9 edge on the glass through seven games. They do a decent job of crashing the offensive glass, as well, grabbing an offensive board 30.7% of the time compared to the Jays’ 27.4%.
This is a tough matchup for the Bluejays — Akron will not try to run with them, they don’t turn it over all that much, and if their three-point shots are falling (or if Johnson gets going inside), that doesn’t give the Jays many opportunities to push tempo, at least not consistently. Can CU succeed in a half-court game? No one’s forced them to even try for a full 40 minutes this year, but Akron would like to. Creighton needs to — has to, really — run as fast as they can any time the Zips miss a shot and they clear the boards. Isaiah Johnson is not going to sprint up and down the floor with Patton to contest fast break dunks, and he’s not going to be terribly effective even in a half-court game if he’s spending most of it running back on defense. And without Johnson as the center of the offense, Akron has trouble scoring because of their lack of creators.
Run!
Quick Notes on the Zips:
- Isaiah Johnson’s nickname is “Big Dog” (and why not, former Purdue All-American Glenn Robinson’s been retired from the NBA for long enough to put the name back in circulation) and the Zips held “Big Dog Night” earlier this week for their game against Adrian College, giving out 1,000 commemorative dog tags to fans.
- Akron has won at least 21 games in 11 straight seasons under 13th-year head coach Keith Dambrot, joining the likes of Duke, Gonzaga, Kansas and Ohio State. Over the last 12 seasons, the Zips have won 278 games, most by any team in the MAC.
- In 2015-16, the Zips were 26-9 overall and 13-5 in the MAC, and went 15-0 at home. They played in their eighth MAC title game in the last 10 years and their 11th straight semifinal, losing to Buffalo in the title game to deny them an NCAA Tourney berth. They lost at Ohio State in the first round of the NIT.
- The Zips ranked No. 2 in the NCAA for 3-point FG’s made per game, total 3-point FG’s made, and 3-point FG’s attempted. Akron ranked in the NCAA’s Top 100 in 20-of-32 statistical categories (346 teams), including four Top 5’s: 3-pt FG per game (2nd, 11.7), 3-pt FGM (2nd, 409), 3-pt FG attempted (2nd, 1,069), and 3-pt FG defense (3rd, .294). Akron was 32nd in 3-pt FG percentage (.383).
Bluejay Bytes:
- Justin Patton has made 21 of his last 22 field goal attempts dating back to midway through the Ole Miss win and now leads the nation in field goal percentage at 80 percent. Patton’s 19 dunks this year, which no doubt contributes to his high accuracy rate, but he also showed his range on Tuesday vs. Buffalo when he drained his first career three-pointer. Patton is the first Bluejay 7-footer in history to make a three-point shot.
- Creighton is second nationally in field goal percentage at 54.1 percent, trailing only UCLA (55.3). Nationally, Creighton is the only team to shoot 50 percent or better in every game this season. Creighton ranks sixth nationally with 92.0 points per game and has scored 79 points or more in all seven games.
- Creighton ranks eighth in the KenPom.com’s Adjusted Offensive rankings this year and 50th in tempo as of Friday afternoon. Per figures from StatBroadcast.com, Creighton has scored on more than half its possessions in all seven games this season, despite averaging just 14 seconds per possession.
The Series:
Creighton owns a 2-1 record all-time over Akron, with the home team winning each meeting. All three games have been in the last 11 seasons: Creighton beat the Zips 71-60 in the 2006 NIT in Omaha before falling at Akron 76-67 in 2011 in a non-televised BracketBusters match-up. Creighton then won the rematch in Omaha, 77-61, in 2012.
Greg McDermott is 1-1 in his career against Akron and Keith Dambrot. Dambrot is 1-2 against Creighton.
The Last Time They Played:
That 2012 CU victory featured a then-career high six 3-pointers from Doug McDermott en route to 30 points. It was an odd game, coming just days after Josh Jones’ pregame medical issues at Nebraska, and CU was still trying to figure out who would take his minutes. Avery Dingman was the answer at least initially, and scored eight points with six boards against the Zips. From Patrick Marshall’s postgame recap:
While Dingman was quietly having a great half off the bench, it was another great evening for Doug McDermott. McDermott scored 20 of his game high 30 points in the first half as time and time again, the Zips would lose McDermott around the arc and he made them pay. McDermott went 4 of 5 from behind the arc in the first half. But you can’t blame the Zips. Doug started the first five minutes of the game 1 of 3 from the field and picked up an early foul. But he turned that misfortune into a couple of assists before he really got going.
In the second half, the Bluejays turned to the post. Gregory Echenique suffered through foul trouble in the first half but came alive in the second, taking advantage of the weak interior defense by Akron. Echenique started off with a dunk and a few minutes later had another one. He finished the game with 10 points and 7 rebounds and kept Akron from getting back in the game. That included limiting the Zips’ star center Zeke Marshall from doing anything in the second half after scoring 10 points in the first half.
Here’s the highlight reel from that game, which I highly recommend watching: from Doug McDermott posterizing Zeke Marshall on a three, then moments later spinning around him for a scoop shot, to Gregory Echenique spinning around a defender to throw down a one-handed dunk, there’s a lot of great stuff in this video.
Gratuitous Linkage:
The fact is, Dambrot’s teams like shooting the 3-pointer and when they’re on, they fall like rain into an empty barrel. When they’re off, something akin to Wednesday night happens — a stretch of more than five minutes when the team struggles to score. More often than not, the Zips find their zone, and Wednesday against the Bulldogs was no exception. After making 5-of-15 from behind the 3-point line until the 7:45 mark of the first half, UA was 4-of-4 the rest of the half. And by halftime, UA held a 44-21 lead, and the game was well in hand.
–“Zips find their range and cruise to easy win over Bulldogs”, George M. Thomas / Akron Beacon Journal
This Date in Creighton Hoops History:
On December 3, 2013, Creighton won at Long Beach State, 78-61, following up a disappointing holiday tournament with a solid road win. The Jays lept out to a 48-28 lead at halftime, thanks to making 10-17 three-pointers to stun the home crowd. It was the first start for Ethan Wragge, as the Jays looked to get his offense into the game earlier, and he rewarded his coach with 15 points including back-to-back threes during the early moments of the second half.
Of course, that’s not the memory most people have of the Long Beach State game. It’s of the Big West Conference’s failed webcast and LBSU’s live stats working only sporadically, and of Creighton fans entertaining themselves on Twitter while listening to the game on the radio.
Completely Random, Totally Rad Music Video of the Day:
The Black Keys, the pride of Akron (or at least, I’d hope they’re the pride of Akron — they’re pretty rad)!
The Bottom Line:
Akron’s ability to slow down the pace of the game will keep this close; if they hit three-point shots, they might be able to make things very interesting. In a lower-possession game than the Jays would like, Creighton pulls away late and wins by 12.
Bluejays 78, Zips 66
