Tuesday night, Creighton brings it’s shiny, newly-minted Top Ten ranking onto the court against the Buffalo Bulls, a team that won 20 games and advanced to the NCAA Tournament a year ago after beating Creighton’s opponent on Saturday — Akron — in the MAC title game. It’s a MACtastic week for the Jays, and one that could be a landmine if they come out flat as they did this past Saturday against Loyola-Maryland, because both Buffalo and Akron are quality mid-major opponents better equipped to upset an unfocused Creighton team than the Greyhounds were.
Buffalo has won the MAC two years straight, including last year in what was supposed to be a complete rebuild. They graduated just two players off that team, both role players off the bench (Rodell Wigginton and Jarryn Skeete), but lost leading scorer Lamonte Bearden to transfer when the point guard left for Western Kentucky.
They’re a bit tough to get a read on, because while they’re 4-2, two of the wins came against DII opponents Nazareth (85-38) and Alaska-Anchorage (85-79 in the Great Alaska Shootout) and the other two came against Niagara 76-66 (308th in KenPom) and Weber State 74-72 (170th in KenPom). Of their two losses, one was a close game to a decent Nevada team (67-62), but it’s the other loss that’s likely of biggest concern to the Bluejays — an 86-53 massacre at Xavier.
The Musketeers dominated early and often, leading 27-11 after just ten minutes and 44-25 at halftime. UBBullRun.com called it the “worst officiated game” they’d ever seen, and though that’s clearly hyperbole, the officials were extremely, ahem, “active.” They called a foul every 36 seconds in the first half, and whistled the teams for a combined 59 fouls — 38 on Buffalo, 21 on Xavier.
Xavier’s big men were simply too much for the Bulls to handle, outscoring Buffalo 40-8 on points in the paint and blocking five shots, while holding the Bulls to a ghastly 5-22 on two-point shots. That’s been a problem for Buffalo all year; they’re one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country, and they don’t get much offense from the post. 30 of their 53 points against Xavier came on three-pointers, and more than half of their shot attempts came from outside, continuing a trend in almost all of their games this year.
For the season, 217 of the Bulls’ 347 shot attempts (62%) have come from three players: Blake Hamilton, Nick Perkins, and Willie Connors, and all three excel far more at the three-point shot than they do at getting into the paint. That leaves starting center Ikenna Smart, a 6’10” 235-pound freshman, as their primary close-range shooter. He’s been terrific when he shoots (16-22 from the floor, all on twos) but they don’t get him the ball very often, as he averages 3.6 shots per game.
Hamilton is a handful at 6’6” 205-pounds, and is the Bulls returning leading scorer and rebounder at 13.7 points per game and 7.1 rebounds per contest. He missed most of the preseason due to a broken non-shooting hand, but returned to the starting lineup for the regular season opener at Niagara where he had 11 points, eight rebounds, and five assists in 26 minutes of action. Hamilton recorded a career-high 11 assists in the win over Nazareth, and had a career-high 36 points against Alaska-Anchorage, including 29 in the second half. Hamilton added 23 points and eight rebounds in the win over Weber State, and with 73 points in three games of the Great Alaska Shootout he led all scorers.
He’s also what you might call a “Volume Shooter” — in scoring 36 points against Alaska-Anchorage, he was 12-24 from the floor; he attempted 18 shots against Nevada, 19 against Weber State, and 12 against Niagara. Xavier’s defense held Hamilton to “only” nine field goal attempts, six of them from behind the arc, and made others try to beat them. Given that the result was Buffalo scoring a measly 53 points, look for the Jays to similarly try to limit his touches and shot attempts.
Perkins, a 6’8” 260-pound sophomore, averages 14.7 points and 8.2 rebounds a game, but don’t let his size fool you: he’s a stretch-four that loves to shoot outside. In leading the team with 15 points against Xavier, he was 3-5 from three-point range, and nearly 1/3 of his shots have come from behind the arc this year.
That’s also true for third leading scorer Conner; 30 of his 59 shot attempts have been three-pointers this year. At 6’5” and 200 pounds, Conner is another forward that stretches the floor. He’s gotten to the line 26 times, where he’s an 80% shooter (21-26), to lead the team.
The Bulls turn the ball over on 24.1% of their possessions, which is insane — a quarter of their possessions end in a turnover! This is a real stat! Davonta Jordan, a 6’2” freshman, has mostly been immune from those problems and leads the team with 30 assists against only 12 turnovers. He doesn’t shoot — or score — much, but does a nice job setting up his teammates.
It’s an interesting matchup, because Creighton’s given up several big games to opposing shooters on the perimeter already this year, and the Bulls have done a nice job defending the perimeter on their end, holding opponents to 33.9% shooting from three-point range, ranking them among the top-third of D1.
Because they don’t score much in the paint, they’d ideally love to try and run with the Bluejays, but they’re almost uniquely ill-suited to do that — while they like to play fast, they aren’t sure-handed enough to succeed at it against one of the best teams in America at running in transition. The Bulls shoot well (46.4% overall, 33% from three) but they’re going to need a boatload of threes to make up for all the points they’re likely to give up at the rim (or above it) given that almost one out of every four possessions end with a turnover.
What options do they have, though? If they try and slow the game down, it goes against their strengths. If they try and run, they might — might! — catch lightning in a bottle.
***
Top ten rankings have been short-lived for the Bluejays, historically. Their first, on January 20, 2003, lasted just one week. They beat Illinois State 93-82 behind a career night from Larry House (23 points and 8 rebounds) on Monday of that week, but were tripped up at Evansville three nights later 74-66. They rebounded to beat TCU that weekend, but tumbled from the top ten and didn’t return. The second time they cracked the top ten, February 24, 2014, the Jays played just one game the week of the poll — and lost at Xavier, 75-69. Their program-best #9 ranking disappeared quickly, and they haven’t been back in the top ten since…until this week.
Here’s hoping the Jays stick around in the top ten a little longer this time. It’d be an awful lot of fun to take a top ten ranking into Lincoln next week; it’d be even more fun to bring an undefeated, top five ranking into the game with a (likely) undefeated, top five Villanova team on December 31.
Quick Notes on the Bulls:
- The Bulls will be traveling over 9,000 miles during non-conference play this season, playing eight of their first nine regular season games away from home
- The Bulls are looking to do something that no Mid-American Conference school has ever accomplished: win three straight MAC Tournament titles. Buffalo has already become the first team since Kent State to go in back-to-back seasons when the Golden Flashes did it in 2001 and 2002, but a third straight trip would make conference history.
- No “Big 4” school has gone to three straight NCAA Tournament since Canisius in 1955-57. The Big 4, in case you wondered (I did), is Buffalo, Canisius, Niagara, and St. Bonaventure, the four D1 schools in western New York.
Bluejay Bytes:
- Marcus Foster and Justin Patton have each scored in double-figures during each of Creighton’s first six games this season. They join Doug McDermott as the only Bluejays to open their career in double-figures during CU’s first six games in the last 20 years. McDermott opened his 2010-11 campaign with eight straight games in double-figures.
- Junior Marcus Foster’s 106 points so far are the most by any Bluejay newcomer through six games since at least 1979-80. For comparison, Doug McDermott had 86 points through six games and 106 points after his seventh career game of his freshman season. Before Foster this year, McDermott was the last Bluejay with six straight games of 15+ points to start any season, having done so in 2013-14. The last Bluejay with seven straight games of 15+ points to start a season is Rod Mason in 1987-88.
- Creighton is 52-4 in non-conference home games with Greg McDermott as head coach, but three of those four losses came in CU’s seventh game of the season. Tuesday will be Creighton’s seventh game of the 2016-17 season. (Knock on wood)
The Series / The Last Time They Played:
Creighton won the only previous meeting between the two schools, 36-27, nearly a century ago — March 1, 1922. The next day’s World Herald recap under the “Sports Brevities” section used a whole lot of words to say almost nothing:
“Creighton University of Omaha tonight defeated the University of Buffalo’s cage quintet by a score of 36 to 27. At no time was the visitor’s lead seriously endangered.”
And people think the coverage NOW is too brief!
Gratuitous Linkage:
After taking fourth place in the Great Alaska Shootout, Buffalo Bulls blog UBBullRun.com took stock of the team so far. One of the positives they point out:
The duo of Willie Conner and Dontay Caruthers get singled out thanks to the spectacular defense that they’re providing—helping Buffalo give some of the most consistent defensive efforts I’ve seen in a long time. Conner’s perimeter defense has usually been infallible since he first started playing for Buffalo, but it wasn’t up to snuff until right around when this tourney began.
Caruthers’ ability to turn the ball over is easily the best on the entire team right now. Currently, he’s stealing the ball in 5% of the possessions that he’s involved in—good for 33rd in the nation.
This Date in Creighton Hoops History:
Creighton beat Nebraska-Omaha 70-58 on this date in 1977 in front of 6,500 fans at the Civic. After leading 29-25 at the half, CU made six straight baskets to open the second and took a 41-29 edge. Senior forward Tim McConnell scored three baskets in the run, part of 14 second-half points.
But it was the return of David Wesely that energized the crowd and his teammates. Ineligible for the season opener, Wesely was slated to start against UNO but came down with a bronchial infection. Doctors refused to let him play until his temperature of 103 dropped; by halftime it had dropped a couple of degrees and they cleared him to play. When he checked in with 13:42 to play, the Civic crowd erupted. When he immediately scored on a twisting move along the baseline that led to a reverse layup, they erupted even louder. And when he exited after seven minutes of action that saw him collect four points, two rebounds and an assist, the appreciative crowd saluted his effort.
UNO coach Bob Hanson did not appreciate the officiating, and claimed in the next morning’s Omaha World-Herald that the free throw discrepancy cost his team the game. “They shot 24. We shot 13. They made (only) one more field goal than we did.”
Completely Random, Totally Rad Music Video of the Day:
The Bottom Line:
Buffalo may very well end up as a Top 100 team in KenPom / RPI by season’s end, and may even get back to the NCAA Tourney for a third straight year. But they’re not going to have much success out-running the Bluejays on their home floor. This one will get out of hand quickly.
Creighton 93, Buffalo 70
