Our resident Bracketologist, The Bracketeer has returned to give his predictions for the 2015-16 season. He is a long time contributor to White & Blue Review and matches up with some of the best bracketologists in the nation. Follow him all season long.
A few guidelines for everyone looking at the bracket and how I came to my projections (thru games of January 17):
- I tried to seed teams as if it were actually Selection Sunday. So some teams may seem a bit high or a bit low compared to what others have presently. However, based on the numbers to date, that’s where I believe they would be seeded when you factor in SOS, Top-50 wins, Top-100 wins, etc. With most teams still having half of their regular season games remaining, there are a lot of “incomplete” resumes this early in the process.
- Since we are early in the process, there will be some teams that appear in the bracket that have below .500 records in their conference. Although the common thought that below .500 in your league = no at-large bid, since 2000, 10 such teams (all from “power” conferences) have received an at-large nod. Most conferences are only a handful of games into league play – so some teams with sub-.500 league records will be in the field of 68, presently.
- As the NCAA selection committee is supposed to do, I attempted to avoid match-ups that would involve rematches from this season and teams from the same conference potentially playing each other (generally until the Sweet 16). Also, teams cannot play in their home arena (e.g., Providence can’t play in the “Providence Region”). If necessary, the committee in the past has allowed for a “one-seed” movement from a team’s “true” seed to help in putting together the bracket.
- I’ve used information from the various RPI/efficiency sites out there in compiling my somewhat educated guesses but will mostly site RPI, KenPom and RPI Forecast.
- Below the bracket, I’ve also listed the “Last Four In”, “First Four Out” and “Next Four Out”.
Now for the bracket projection (January 18)…
LAST FOUR IN: Indiana, Florida State, Seton Hall, St. Joesph’s
FIRST FOUR OUT: Clemson, Davidson, Ohio State, VCU
NEXT FOUR OUT: St. Bonaventure, Oregon State, St. Mary’s, Tulsa
MULTIPLE BID LEAGUES: Pac-12 (9), ACC (8), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (6), Big East (5), SEC (5), A-10 (3)
Next bracket projection: Monday, January 25
5 Things About This Week’s Projection
1. A few of the “professional” Bracketologists have mentioned over the last few days how the Pac-12 has “Gamed” the RPI. Here’s the thing, it’s tough to “game” the RPI when everyone already knows how to manipulate your RPI number (play fewer games against RPI 200+ teams). Sure, 11 of the teams that make up the Pac-12 have an RPI below 60 – meaning they’ll have lots of teams in the thick of the conversation throughout the NCAA Committee meetings. In this projection, I have 9 Pac-12 teams into the field of 68. Do I think this will be the case 8 weeks from now? No. Do I think the Pac-12 will get at least six, and likely seven teams, into this year’s tournament field? Yes. From what I’ve seen so far, I like USC as a sleeper Final Four team. Collectively, this is the best the Pac-12 has been in a long, long time.
2. For those who have been critical when it comes to the Pac-12 and their nice shiny RPI’s, they at least have some top 50 non-conference wins to back up those rankings. The Atlantic-10, however, has quite a few teams with RPI’s that would make you think of near automatic inclusion into the Big Dance. However, there’s very little substance to their résumés so far. Davidson has nice computer numbers (35 RPI, 28 SOS). However, they have only 1 win (1-5) vs the RPI top 100 and is also 1-5 in road/neutral games. St. Joseph’s has similarly nice numbers (33 RPI, 62 SOS). However, the Hawks have yet to compile one top 50 win. The thing that put St. Joe’s into this version of the bracket for me was their 6-1 road-neutral record.
3. Keep in mind that it is still very early in the process. Many teams have just hit the halfway mark of the season and are a handful of games into league play. In last year’s initial projection, teams that appeared to be well on their way to the field of 68 (Seton Hall, #3-seed; Stanford, #6-seed and George Washington, #9-seed) not only were nowhere to be found on Selection Sunday they weren’t even on the “bubble” for a tournament berth.
4. I really wasn’t sure what to do with Clemson. The Tigers have a less than eye-popping RPI (88) and SOS (87). Add to that a non-conference SOS of 306, and its tough to see Clemson being tournament worthy. However, their consecutive home wins over Louisville, Duke and Miami (FL) – all of which are projected NCAA Tournament selections – makes you at least strongly consider their tournament chances.
5. From a Creighton perspective, the Jays have two games they probably wish they could have back – and I’m actually not talking about the loss at Loyola (RPI 267). According to RPI Forecast, if the home losses to Arizona State and Providence were to become wins, CU would currently have an RPI of 62 (instead of 100) and would have a projected RPI of 47. The 4-2 start to Big East play is very nice. CU likely needs to get to at least 11-7 and more likely 12-6 in Big East play to have a realistic shot at an at-large berth. The Jays non-conference SOS of 267 and best non-league win being against UMass (RPI 148) will not impress anyone on the Selection Committee
Thanks for reading. The next edition of “The Bracketeer” will run on Monday, January 25…
