A few guidelines for everyone looking at the bracket and how I came to my projections (thru games of February 17th):
- I tried to seed teams as if it were actually Selection Sunday. So some teams may seem a bit high or a bit low compared to what others have presently. However, based on the numbers to date, that’s where I believe they would be seeded when you factor in SOS, Top-50 wins, Top-100 wins, etc.
- Since we are early in the process, there will be some teams that appear in the bracket that have below .500 records in their conference. Although the common thought that below .500 in your league = no at-large bid, since 2000, 10 such teams (all from “power” conferences) have received an at-large nod. Most conferences are only a handful of games into league play – so some teams with sub-.500 league records will be in the field of 68, presently.
- As the NCAA selection committee is supposed to do, I attempted to avoid match-ups that would involve rematches from this season and teams from the same conference potentially playing each other (generally until the Sweet 16). Also, teams cannot play in their home arena (e.g., Creighton can’t play in the “Omaha Region”, Louisville can’t play in the “Louisville Region”). If necessary, the committee in the past has allowed for a “one-seed” movement from a team’s “true” seed to help in putting together the bracket.
- I’ve used information from the various RPI/efficiency sites out there in compiling my somewhat educated guesses but will mostly site RPI and KenPom.
- Below the bracket, I’ve also listed the “Last Four In”, “First Four Out” and “Next Four Out”. I’ve also done a brief capsule on each multi-bid conference.
Now for the bracket projection (February 18th)…
LAST FOUR IN: Temple, Massachusetts, North Carolina State, Iowa
FIRST FOUR OUT: Tulsa, Purdue, Boise State, Miami (FL)
NEXT FOUR OUT: BYU, Pittsburgh, Oregon, George Washington
MULTIPLE BID LEAGUES: Big 12 (7), Big Ten (7), ACC (6), Big East (6), SEC (6), Pac-12 (4), Atlantic 10 (3), American (3), MVC (2), MWC (2)
Next bracket projection: Monday, February 23
In a Nutshell
With just 26 days until Selection Sunday, I feel the top 8 teams are cut and dry. There are certainly differences of opinion as to who should be a 1- or 2-seed, and I realize that I am in the bracket projection minority by still having Kansas as a #1-seed. I explain why the Jayhawks, in-spite of Monday’s loss at West Virginia, are still a #1 in the Big 12 Conference Capsule.
There’s also still a lot to sort through towards the bottom of the bracket. I had a hard time separating the résumés of Stanford, St. John’s and Miami (FL). Yet I have one as a 10-seed (Stanford), another as an 11-seed (St. John’s) and another as first four out (Miami, FL).
Stanford St. John’s Miami (FL)
W-L (Overall, Conf.) 16-9, 7-6 16-9, 6-7 16-9, 6-6
RPI 50 45 62
SOS 58 29 57
vs Top 50 2-5 3-6 3-5
Conference Capsules
American Athletic Conference
Although the AAC’s best team is SMU, the team with the best résumé is Cincinnati. The Bearcats have five RPI top 50 wins (as many as league-mates SMU, Tulsa and Temple combined). It will be interesting to see what type of seed Cincinnati ends up with… They are 2-3 in their last five games – including clunkers against Tulane (RPI: 161) and at East Carolina (RPI: 228). Temple is one of my last four teams into the bracket. The Owls have won seven in a row, however, four of those victories have come against RPI 200+ teams. Their 25-point win against Kansas back in December is something other bubble teams can’t say they have.
Atlantic Coast Conference
There’s a part of me that feels I’ve possibly over-seeded Notre Dame as the Fightin’ Irish have played their usual soft non-conference slate – resulting in nine wins vs. RPI 200+ teams. However, ND (#4-seed) has also shown to be pretty good against solid competition with a 5-3 mark against the RPI top 50. I have a feeling that North Carolina State will be a team we are talking about as a bubble team from now until Selection Sunday. The Wolfpack obviously have great ability (wins vs Duke and at Louisville) but their 6-10 record vs the RPI top 100 is a concern. Although not in my current projected field, keep an eye on Pittsburgh. The Panthers have been playing well in winning 4 of 5 (def. Notre Dame and North Carolina) prior to Monday’s loss at Virginia.
Atlantic 10 Conference
VCU appeared headed towards a top-4 seed prior to the season-ending injury to Briante Weber. The Rams have gone 3-3 since losing Weber and are tied with Dayton, Rhode Island and Massachusetts in the loss column of the A-10 standings. VCU and Dayton are safely into the field of 68 at this juncture. I thought that UMass was the toughest call regarding in or out of the projected field. The RPI and SOS (39 on both) say that the Minutemen have a legit case for at-large consideration. The 2-2 record vs the top 50 doesn’t really hurt or help their case. They played a solid enough non-conference slate with six games vs the RPI top 60, however, the Minutemen could only parlay that into one win (vs Iona, RPI: 46). The selection committee has shown that they will reward a team with an at-large berth that wins a conference regular season title among the top 10 RPI leagues. The A-10 currently ranks 7th in RPI and UMass has a great chance to go 5-1 over their last 6 games – which would likely be good enough to win the league regular season crown. Rhode Island is 0-4 vs the top 50 and has just two wins vs RPI top 100 competition. URI and NIT have the same amount of initials. This seems like a perfect fit for the Rams and that tournament. Three weeks ago, George Washington appeared to be on solid ground for an NCAA bid. However, the Colonials have lost 4 of their last 5 games and have computer numbers (RPI: 76, SOS: 144) that are not very favorable.
Big East Conference
For a brief time it looked as though the Big East could be a 7-bid league. It now appears that this league will certainly end up with a minimum of five bids and very likely will send six teams to the Big Dance. One of the teams that appeared to be a lock four weeks ago was Seton Hall. In fact, the Pirates were penciled in as a #3-seed just a month ago (Jan. 12 projection). Ten games and eight losses later, Seton Hall is nowhere to be found on most bracket projections. It would not be impossible for “The Hall” to get back into the conversation as they have chances for résumé building wins the rest of the way (3 of next 4 games vs RPI top 50 teams), but this appears to be a team that has lost its way. After a loss at Creighton and sitting at 2-5 in league play, St. John’s appeared to be headed for another season that fell short of expectations. The Red Storm has won 4 of their last 6 games to get into contention for an at-large berth (listed as an 11-seed in this edition of the bracket projection).
Big Ten Conference
If you would have told me four weeks ago that the Big Ten would be a 7-bid league, I’d have called you crazy. Well here we are and I have 7 teams in the projected field. Could Iowa end up in the “play-in” game for the second straight season?
Note: I realize that the NCAA calls the games in Dayton “First Round”, however, since there is not an entire round of games played, I still call ‘em “play-in”.
Even though the Hawkeyes are just 2-5 over their last seven games (including a loss at Northwestern), they are my last team into the field of 68. Iowa does have four wins vs the RPI top 50 that helps its at-large cause.
Big 12 Conference
I realize that I am in the minority on Kansas regarding its prospects for a #1-seed. Here are the numbers supporting the Jayhawks: RPI – 1, SOS – 1… 9 wins vs RPI top 50 (only Duke has more with 10)… 13 wins vs RPI top 100 (this was 15 until UNLV and Kansas State dropped out of the top 100 on Tuesday night). The only two teams that have more top 100 wins are Kentucky (17) and Virginia (14) – who are both consensus #1-seeds by bracket prognosticators. I understand that some might see the results of the Kentucky and Temple losses (by a combined 57 points) and say that KU doesn’t pass the “eye test”. I actually don’t think they pass the “eye test”. If we were basing seeds on that alone, the Jayhawks would be my last #2-seed. However, the facts are that Kansas is the best team in the #1-RPI league with an individual RPI of 1 and an SOS of 1. If that’s not a #1-seed, I don’t know what is… If I were Texas I’d want some wins against quality competition to feel a bit better about my at-large chances. The Longhorns are a woeful 1-9 vs the RPI top 50. As much as they seem to not be able to beat anyone good, they also haven’t lost to anyone bad (worst loss is to Stanford, RPI 50). The Longhorns will soon have a much better idea as to their at-large fate as they play teams in the RPI top 25 in each of their next four games. In spite of having beaten almost no one and a 6-7 Big 12 mark, Texas does have history on its side. Since the expansion of the field to 64 teams in 1985, every team from the #1-RPI conference with an RPI of 40 or less has received an at-large berth. Texas’ current RPI stands at 33.
Missouri Valley Conference
Wichita State and Northern Iowa are both solidly into the projected field. I do wonder, though, how they’ll be seeded? Although they both have solid records vs top 100 competition (WSU: 6-3, UNI: 6-1), the lack of games vs the top 50 (WSU: 1-2, UNI: 1-1) makes me wonder if they will be seeded as high as I have each team, currently.
Mountain West Conference
A bad loss at Fresno State (RPI 213) has cost Boise State its spot in this week’s projection. Add to it the Broncos miniscule sampling and so-so results in games vs top 100 teams (3-4) have them currently on the wrong side of the “bubble”. San Diego State has won 6 of its last 7 games to enhance its already solid NCAA résumé.
Pac 12 Conference
When March 15th rolls around, this will likely be a 4-bid league. Arizona and Utah are locks to make the NCAA field. Two of the following three teams (UCLA, Stanford and Oregon) will likely be uneasy until Selection Sunday but should end up making the Big Dance.
Southeastern Conference
I have Arkansas and LSU seeded higher than most bracket projections in large part due to their record vs the RPI top 50. The Razorbacks (5-2) and Tigers (4-3) have played well vs good competition. I’m a little worried that I’m wrong about having Texas A&M as one of my teams in the projected field. The Aggies have yet to post a victory against a top 50 opponent (0-5). They do, however, have a 6-6 ledger against the RPI top 100 and have won 8 of their last 10 games in league play.
West Coast Conference
I really like this year’s Gonzaga team. However, even though I think they are a likely Final Four squad, they grade out to a #2-seed – and I think that is the Bulldogs ceiling for this season. While they are visually impressive, they lack the quantity of quality wins vs good competition (only seven RPI top 100 wins) compared to other teams in contention for a top seed.
In the previous version of “The Bracketeer”, I said that I would tell one and all why St. Mary’s should rarely ever be considered for an at-large berth. To be honest, the Gaels are nowhere to be found in anyone’s projections this year – thanks in large part to having only one win vs RPI top 100 teams. This has been their M-O for the better part of the last 5-6 years – play a lousy non-league schedule, rack up wins, and then wonder why they are on the bubble and sometimes even openly complain as to why they are not on the tip of bracketologists tongues.
The One-Bid Leagues
The following conferences (21 of them), pretty much no matter how you dissect it, will provide only one team to the 2015 NCAA Tournament… To be brutally honest, about the only two teams out of these 21 conferences that have any chance of an at-large bid are Old Dominion (C-USA) and Wofford (SoCon). Presently, I don’t even have Old Dominion in the field or even part of the first four or next four out as they are in 5th place of the 17th ranked RPI conference.
- America East – Albany
- Atlantic Sun – Florida Gulf Coast
- Big South – High Point
- Big Sky – Eastern Washington
- Big West – UC Davis
- Colonial – UNC-Wilmington
- Conference USA – Louisiana Tech
- Horizon – Valparaiso
- Ivy league – Harvard
- MAC – Bowling Green
- MAAC – Iona
- MEAC – North Carolina Central
- Northeast – St. Francis (NY)
- Ohio Valley – Murray State
- Patriot – Bucknell
- Southern – Wofford
- Southland – Sam Houston State
- Summit – South Dakota State
- Sun Belt – Louisiana-Monroe
- SWAC – Texas Southern
- WAC – New Mexico State
Thanks for reading. The next edition of “The Bracketeer” will run on Monday, February 23…
