Men's Basketball

The Bracketeer (2/29/16)

Our resident Bracketologist, The Bracketeer, has returned to give his predictions for the 2015-16 season.  He is a long time contributor to White & Blue Review and matches up with some of the best bracketologists in the nation.  Follow him all season long as Creighton looks to get back to the NCAA Tournament.

A few guidelines for everyone looking at the bracket and how I came to my projections (thru games of February 28):

  • I tried to seed teams as if it were actually Selection Sunday.  So some teams may seem a bit high or a bit low compared to what others have presently.  However, based on the numbers to date, that’s where I believe they would be seeded when you factor in SOS, Top-50 wins, Top-100 wins, etc.  With most teams still having half of their regular season games remaining, there are a lot of “incomplete” resumes this early in the process.
  • As the NCAA selection committee is supposed to do, I attempted to avoid match-ups that would involve rematches from this season and teams from the same conference potentially playing each other (generally until the Sweet 16).  Also, teams cannot play in their home arena (e.g., Providence can’t play in the “Providence” site) or if they are the host institution (e.g, Iowa State can’t play in the “Des Moines” site).  If necessary, the committee in the past has allowed for a “one-seed” movement from a team’s “true” seed to help in putting together the bracket.
  • I’ve used information from the various RPI/efficiency sites out there in compiling my somewhat educated guesses but will mostly site RPI, KenPom and RPI Forecast.
  • Below the bracket, I’ve also listed the “Last Four In”, “First Four Out” and “Next Four Out”.

Now for the bracket projection (February 29)…

Top Bracket

Bottom Bracket

LAST FOUR IN: Florida, Cincinnati, Michigan, Butler

FIRST FOUR OUT: George Washington, Connecticut, Alabama, Stanford

NEXT FOUR OUT: Tulsa, LSU, Ohio State, Georgia Tech

MULTIPLE BID LEAGUES: ACC (7), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (7), Pac-12 (7), Big East (5), SEC (5), Atlantic 10 (4), American (2)

Next bracket projection: Monday, March 7

5 Things About This Week’s Projection

1) I know that I’m in the minority compared to other bracket projections, but I’ve moved Oregon onto the #1-seed line. The Ducks have 9 top 50 wins (second only to Kansas – 11) and has 16 top 100 wins (tied with KU and Utah for the most). They have some computer numbers that say #1-seed (RPI – 4, SOS – 4) and some that don’t (KenPom has the Ducks at #18). The Ducks 5-6 road/neutral record is also not typical of a #1-seed. However, the way the rest of the top teams have muddled through the last 21 days or so (8 of the AP top 10 teams lost at least one game this week) and with Orgeon in the lead of the #2 RPI league, I’m taking the plunge – and placing the Ducks on the top line.

2) I mentioned last week that I felt I had Florida a bit over-seeded. After seeing the Gators in person on Saturday at LSU and then re-assessing its résumé, I still have the Gators into the field of 68 – but not by much – as they are in my last four in. I also mentioned last week that I feel I didn’t have any teams under-seeded. In re-reviewing, I had West Virginia under-seeded as a #6. A 2-0 week for the Mountaineers and adjusting upward from my seeding error, I now have WVU as a #3-seed.

3) For the first time this year, I had to move a team from its true seed-line to accommodate the rest of the bracket. I swapped Wichita State (#9-seed, but should be a #10) and Syracuse (#10-seed, but should be a #9) as the Orange would have gone all the way to Spokane for their 8/9 game. If I adjusted the other way, their 8/9 game would have faced #1-seed Virginia – who is in the same conference as Syracuse.

4) From a Big East perspective, I was ready to move Xavier onto the #1-seed line after its impressive win against Villanova. However, the loss at Seton Hall kept them solidly onto #2-seed line. At the same time, the Pirates win over XU cemented its spot as one of the 36 at-large teams. SHU has rattled off 8 wins in its last 9 games – holding down sole possession of 3rd place in the Big East. Although Providence should still feel pretty good about its at-large chances, the Friars would certainly help themselves by winning its final two regular season games (vs. Creighton and at St. John’s) and not throwing a clunker in their BE tourney opener. I have Butler as my last team into the field of 68. The Bulldogs, in-spite of almost blowing a 13-point lead with 2:37 to play at Georgetown (eventually won in OT), were one of the few bubble teams to not have a hiccup this week. Butler gets a great opportunity to keep itself on the right side of the bubble as they host Seton Hall on Wednesday.

5) From a Creighton perspective, the home loss to Marquette was a major blow to any slim chances the Jays had for an at-large nod. Realistically, CU needs to win the Big East Tournament to get into the Big Dance. However, if they were to win at Providence and at Xavier to close out the regular season as well as get to the Big East tourney finals – which would likely include a win over Villanova or another win over Xavier – then the Jays would be right back in the mix.

Say the following outcomes take place…

  • At Providence (W)
  • At Xavier (W)

Creighton is the #4-seed in BE tourney

  • Vs Butler (W)
  • Vs Villanova (W)
  • Vs Xavier (L)

According to RPI Forecast, this would put CU at 22-12 overall with an RPI of 57 and would also give the Jays 5 wins vs the RPI top 50. However, of those 5 top 50 wins, three would be against a likely #1-seed (Villanova) and a likely #2-seed (Xavier). No team on the “bubble” can claim that they would have 3 RPI Top-10 wins – except for the Creighton. A very tall order, no doubt, but not impossible, either…

Thanks for reading. The next edition of “The Bracketeer” will run on Monday, March 7…

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