With only five conference games remaining for each Missouri Valley Conference team, the race for Arch Madness seeding is hitting a fever pitch. Creighton’s currently in a three-way tie for fourth place in the Valley, and the Bluejays own two wins against one of the team’s they’re tied with (Evansville).
But what about the other teams surrounding CU in the standings? Who should Creighton fans cheer for down the stretch, aside from the Bluejays?
Wichita State currently sits atop the conference, having lost only two games in Valley play. But with four games remaining against teams in the top half of the Valley, the Shockers aren’t assured an easy run to the title. From top to bottom, every team has displayed the ability to pull off wins against teams ahead of them in the standings. There’s no telling what could happen during the last few weeks of regular season games.
Let’s take a look at the current MVC standings, as well as the matchups remaining for each team.
| School | Conference W-L | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSU | 11-2 | SIU | UNI | @ UE | CU | @ MSU |
| MSU | 10-3 | BU | @ ILS | DU | @ SIU | WSU |
| UNI | 9-4 | @ UE | WSU | @ BU | INS | @ CU |
| CU | 7-6 | @ DU | SIU | ILS | @ WSU | UNI |
| UE | 7-6 | UNI | @ BU | WSU | @ DU | ILS |
| INS | 7-6 | @ ILS | DU | @ SIU | @ UNI | SIU |
| DU | 5-8 | CU | @ INS | @ MSU | UE | @ BU |
| SIU | 4-9 | @ WSU | @ CU | INS | MSU | @ INS |
| ILS | 3-10 | INS | MSU | @ CU | BU | @ UE |
| BU | 2-11 | @ MSU | UE | UNI | @ ILS | DU |
Now, let’s add a progression that shows what the standings would look like as each team ahead of its opponent in the standings posts a win. If the better team, record-wise, wins the rest of the way out, CU would finished tied for fifth with Evansville, a tie-breaker the Bluejays would win for the #5 seed in Arch Madness.
| School | MVC W-L (14 Gms) | MVC W-L (15 Gms) | MVC W-L (16 Gms) | MVC W-L (17 Gms) | MVC W-L (18 Gms) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSU | 12-2 | 13-2 | 14-2 | 15-2 | 16-2 |
| MSU | 11-3 | 12-3 | 13-3 | 14-3 | 14-4 |
| UNI | 10-4 | 10-5 | 11-5 | 12-5 | 13-5 |
| CU | 8-6 | 9-6 | 10-6 | 10-7 | 10-8 |
| UE | 7-7 | 8-7 | 8-8 | 9-8 | 10-8 |
| INS | 8-6 | 9-6 | 10-6 | 10-7 | 11-7 |
| DU | 5-9 | 5-10 | 5-11 | 5-12 | 6-12 |
| SIU | 4-10 | 4-11 | 4-12 | 4-13 | 4-14 |
| ILS | 3-11 | 3-12 | 3-13 | 4-13 | 4-14 |
| BU | 2-12 | 2-13 | 2-14 | 2-15 | 2-16 |
But since when do the favorites always win? At WBR we unabashedly cheer of the Bluejays, so the following projections assume CU bucks their trend of inconsistent play and ends the season on a wild winning streak.
So, what if the Bluejays won out and the other teams followed the higher-ranked-team-always-wins scenario (except, of course, for their games against CU)? If this should happen, the final standings would look like this:
| School | MVC W-L |
|---|---|
| WSU | 15-3 |
| MSU | 14-4 |
| UNI | 12-6 |
| CU | 12-6 |
| INS | 11-7 |
| UE | 10-8 |
| DU | 6-12 |
| SIU | 4-14 |
| ILS | 4-14 |
| BU | 2-16 |
CU and UNI would finish tied for third place. But due a season split between the Jays and Panthers, and the subsequent Valley tie-breaker, UNI would end up with the #3 seed and Creighton would play Indiana State in the #4-#5 game.
But what if Wichita State and Missouri State hit the skids? What if the Bears only win one more game, against the Shockers in the season finale? And what if the Shox only win one more, too, against Northern Iowa? I’m blindly cheering for the Bluejays, of course, but combine these scenarios with some other unlikely happenings, and the Jays could tie WSU for the league title.
- Creighton would need to win the remainder of its games and need:
- Need Drake to beat Evansville.
- Need SIU, Evansville, and Missouri State to beat Wichita State
- Need Wichita State to beat Northern Iowa
- Need Bradley, Illinois State, Drake, and SIU to beat Missouri State
Sure, that all amounts to hell freezing over. But it would also bring about the log jam of all log jams in the Valley’s final standings. CU and WSU would tie for the Valley regular season crown, and the Jays would take the #2 seed to Saint Louis.
| School | MVC W-L |
|---|---|
| WSU | 12-6 |
| CU | 12-6 |
| MSU | 11-7 |
| UNI | 11-7 |
| UE | 11-7 |
| INS | 11-7 |
| DU | 8-10 |
| SIU | 6-12 |
| ILS | 5-13 |
| BU | 5-15 |
Is this going to happen? No. The point of this mental gymnastics session is to show, from a fan’s perspective, just how much there is left to play for during the next few weeks. Matchups mean everything, and it is critical to jockey for the best possible seed in STL. So, in addition to cheering the Bluejays tonight against Drake, make sure to root for the Aces and Salukis. Yes, even SIU.
