Men's Basketball

Ott’s Thoughts: #18 Creighton 66, Missouri State 65

Wednesday’s Creighton road game was one of just a handful of Bluejays games not scheduled for television this season. It struck me as odd when the schedule came out, considering how exciting the three CU-MSU games were last season. But as the season progressed, Creighton continued to climb the national rankings, and Missouri State handed CU one of its two losses thus far, it just made me mad.

So what did I do? I boycotted the web stream. Sounds stupid, and it probably was. But if the Powers That Be wanted to shut me out of JQH Arena, I would comply and spend the evening waiting with baited breath for T. Scott Marr and Nick Bahe to paint a picture of a Bluejays win.

So I didn’t get to watch Austin Chatman’s best game as a Bluejay. I didn’t get to see what Marr called Antoine Young’s “best shot in my time watching him play.” I didn’t get to see Gregory Echenique post another in a string of solid all-around performances. I didn’t get to see the baskets that forced 16 ties and 10 lead changes. And I didn’t get to see Doug McDermott miss the front end of a one-and-one opportunity with 6 seconds left in the game and Creighton clinging to a one-point lead.

Actually, it was better that I couldn’t see that last one, because it no doubt would have made me sick. I expressed my feelings on Twitter at that very moment, figuring that my next tweet would be something like, “We lost to these guys again? Without a big night from Weems. Damn.” Too many characters, anyway. Instead, when Anthony Dowling’s shot at the buzzer fell short and the Bluejays avenged their only Valley loss of the season, I let out a sigh, swigged a celebratory beer, and proceeded to do a little research.

My target? Turnovers. The Bluejays turned the ball over 11 times in the first half against Missouri State. Their three turnovers in the second half marked an improvement, but two of them occurred in the final 3 minutes and effectively kept the Bears in the game.

  • 11 first-half turnovers were the most in a single half by the Jays this season. Creighton turned it over 10 times in each half against Drake on January 3, 10 times in the second half against St. Joe’s on December 10, and 10 times in the first half against Nebraska just a week before that.
  • The Bluejays have committed more turnovers than their opponent in each of the last six games. During that stretch, CU is averaging 13.6 turnovers per game, compared to opponents’ 7.2 turnovers per game.
  • After starting the season outscoring opponents off turnovers in 10 of the team’s first 13 games, opponents outscored the Jays in that category in each of the past six contests. The 18 points Missouri State scored off CU turnovers Wednesday night was the second highest total of the season, and the highest total since Bradley scored 28 a few weeks ago.

Creighton obviously can’t continue to allow opponents to turn them over and convert those mistakes into points. The Bluejays can cover up a lot of problems with exceptional shooting efficiency, but there will come a time when turnovers will cost this team a win. It almost happened in Springfield.

The turnover stats are interesting, individually. Grant Gibbs, a guard, and Doug McDermott, a forward, have the same number of turnovers (46). Guard Antoine Young (37) and forward Gregory Echenique (34) have committed a similar number. Controlling for court time, Creighton’s main frontcourt threats McDermott and Echenique are as likely to turn the ball over as the Bluejays’ main ball handlers Gibbs and Young.

  • Austin Chatman: one turnover every 8.5 minutes
  • Grant Gibbs: one turnover every 12.2 minutes
  • Gregory Echenique: one turnover every 12.6 minutes
  • Doug McDermott: one turnover every 12.9 minutes
  • Antoine Young: one turnover every 15.6 minutes
  • Josh Jones: one turnover every 19 minutes
  • Jahenns Manigat: one turnover every 30.5 minutes
  • Ethan Wragge: one turnover every 54.2 minutes

Sure, not every mistake ends in a turnover. And yes, not all turnovers are created equal. And, I understand, opponents don’t always cash in on turnovers they cause. But teams will continue to double- and triple-team McDermott, and he has to be able to avoid traveling with the ball or making bad passes. The same goes for Echenique, who must assert himself offensively but do so under control. On the perimeter Gibbs and Young have done an exceptional job caring for the ball, considering most offensive possessions begin with one of those two (and, often, both of them) facilitating the first or second pass.

And it wouldn’t kill Creighton to turn the other team over once and awhile. The Bluejays built up impressive steals statistics early in the year, against lesser opponents (they had double-digit swipes against Chicago State, Campbell, Houston Baptist, and Tulsa). But as Valley play has worn on, Creighton’s been less apt to pilfer from their opponents. In fact, CU opponents have out-stolen the Jays in each of the last 9 games. Drake stole the ball 14 times a few weeks ago, a season-high for a CU opponent. Teams’ defensive styles differ, I know. But for a team that likes to push tempo offensively it sure would help to get some baskets in transition off of steals.

All that said, Creighton’s 17-2 (for just the fourth time in program history). Raise your hand if that’s where you thought this team would be through 19 games. CU is 7-1 in conference play for the first time since 2002-2003. So far this team has displayed enough ability and depth to overcome poor defense, too many turnovers, untimely free throw misses, subpar shooting nights, and excessive attention from opponents to one player (McDermott). Not all at once, mind you, but here and there. The Bluejays keep finding a way to win, even on the road, during what has become a remarkable season.

 

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