After the Creighton Bluejays lost to Missouri State on Saturday night, I asked myself why I thought the Jays were going to win that game down in Springfield. They have only won two … I said TWO … road games all season. They won at winless Evansville and they barely survived a final furious Braves rally to win at Bradley. Was there any reason to think anything had changed?
I tried to comfort myself with positive thoughts such as, “Well, they can win at the Qwest Center (where they are 10-1).” But Bluejays fans be sure: the wins at home have been against less than stellar competition. Against some tougher competition such as Northern Iowa and Wichita State, the top two teams in the Valley right now, the Bluejays lost a competitive game against the Panthers and pulled out a competitive win against the Shockers. While the Bluejays were close in both games, and ultimately fended off a WSU comeback to prevail, those efforts are definitely not a lot on which to hang the proverbial hat. The numbers are just staggering:
- Current Average RPI of non-conference home opponents: 274.2
- Current Average RPI of all home opponents played so far: 190
- Current Average RPI of remaining home opponents: 122.75
It isn’t like the Bluejays are playing world beaters at home. Does this give us a false sense that Dana Altman’s team will be successful on the road? Is the deck stacked against the Bluejays when they’re away from the Phone Booth, both because of the quality of opponent and being away from their own friendly confines? A quick look at Creighton’s road opponents finds:
- Current Average RPI of non-conference road/neutral opponents: 71
- Current Average RPI of all road/neutral opponents played so far: 100.84
- Current Average RPI of remaining road opponents: 69.5
WBR makes it a point to familiarize our readers with how the Missouri Valley Conference teams are doing this season. And in the good years, when Creighton is mentioned among the bulge of teams potentially deserving of NCAA Tournament consideration, much huff is made about the quality (or lack thereof) of a team’s non-conference schedule. But during a down season like this one, perhaps now is a good time to go back and revisit the non-con opponents to try and gauge just how bad things might be, or where things went wrong. An at-large bid to the Big Dance isn’t an option this season, but it might be interesting to examine missed opportunities and chortle about the bad teams the Bluejays played a few months ago.
Home Opponents
Florida A&M (5-17 overall, 2-7 conference, RPI = 328) — The Rattlers started the season 0-10 as they went around the nation to pick up their hefty paychecks and be little more than an exhibition game to most teams in the non-conference season. But they haven’t been any better since conference play started, and they are 10th in the 11-team MEAC conference.
Arkansas Little-Rock (7-16 overall, 3-9 conference, RPI = 257) — After beating Creighton in Little Rock last season and playing well in the Sun Belt, you would have thought this would have been a decent game. Well, the Trojans are totally different this season. Their best win is against Oral Roberts and they also lost to MVC conference friend Missouri State. They sit 12th in their 13-team league.
Nebraska (13-10 overall, 1-7 conference, RPI = 118) — Nebraska breezed through the cupcakes on their non-conference schedule but lost their tougher games against Saint Louis and BYU. Apparently the non-conference didn’t prepare them for the rigors of the Big 12. They started conference play 0-5 before beating a struggling Oklahoma squad. At 1-7 in the Big 12, Doc Sadler’s squad is in the basement of the top-heavy Big 12.
Savannah State (9-14 overall, RPI = 325) — A team that spent the 2005-06 season losing every game it played, in 2009-10 this team is actually improving, albeit not by much. Savannah State’s best win is against Longwood, and SSU is the nation’s worst scoring team (even with wins against two non-D1 schools).
Houston Baptist (5-17 overall, 4-2 Conference, RPI = 343) — This team rounded out the Bluejays’ less than stellar home schedule. Along with Savannah State, Houston Baptist is in the process of joining a conference and trying to survive the Division I route. They are actually worse as far as their current RPI, and two of their wins are against Chicago State who is right next to them in the RPI at 345. A common opponent for Houston Baptist and the Bluejays was Michigan.
Away Games
Dayton (16-6 overall, 5-3 in conference, RPI = 33) — The Bluejays started the season on the wrong foot with a road loss at Dayton. The Flyers claim a neutral court win over Georgia tech, but they are 1-4 against the top 100 teams in the RPI (with losses against Villanova, Kansas State, and Creighton common opponent New Mexico). Luckily they don’t have any bad losses on their record, but they sit at sixth in the A-10 Conference.
Michigan (11-12 overall, 4-7 in conference, RPI = 140) — After Michigan defeated the Bluejays in the Old Spice Classic, the Wolverines pretty much went into the tank. Like Creighton, Michigan is hovering around .500 for the year. The Maize and Blue is 2-10 against the top 150, and they are currently 8th in the 11-team Big 10.
Xavier (16-7 overall, 8-2 in conference, RPI = 23) — Xavier started the season with some ups and downs, but the Musketeers have settled down and done some damage. They have won 8 of their last 10 games and 10 of their last 13. However, losses against Butler, Kansas State, Baylor, Marquette, and Wake Forest in non-conference play left them 8-5 going into the A-10 season. They are fighting Charlotte for first place in the conference and probably need to finish in the top two for NCAA consideration.
Iona (18-7 overall, 10-4 in conference, RPI = 91) — Iona was the one team CU fans did not want the Bluejays to play in the Old Spice Classic because they were afraid it would be a “bad” game RPI-wise. Well, which way is up this year? The Gaels have won 9 of their last 10 games. Outside of a win against Providence, Iona’s victory against Creighton is its best of the season. But hey, outside of Siena, Iona is the best team in the MAAC. Egg in our face.
George Mason (15-9 overall, 10-3 in conference, RPI = 129) — We all know about the infamous technical foul Altman accrued during the final seconds against the Patriots that helped decide this game. George Mason is still looking for the magic they had a few years ago. They were sitting at the top of the Colonial, but have lost two in a row and dropped to second in a highly competitive Colonial Athletic Association.
New Mexico (21-3 overall, 7-2 in conference, RPI = 10) — Of all the Creighton non-conference opponents this season, New Mexico appears to have had the most success so far. The disappointing part is that Creighton had the win on the road in the palm of their hands and let it slip away. The Lobos started the season 15-1 and are currently on a 7-game win streak. They are in a three-way tie for first in the ultra-competitive Mountain West Conference.
Creighton’s non-conference opponents are a combined 136-118. So what does this all mean? Creighton has helped everyone but themselves this season. Counting the games the Bluejays won at home against inferior competition and considering even their “tougher” competition appears to be having off-years, the Jays’ results and record (even at .500) seem less impressive than the raw data might reflect.
Barring a run through the brackets at Arch Madness, Bluejays fans watching the Selection Show on March 14 might have nothing else to do than keep track of the number of Creighton’s opponents that make the NCAA Tournament. And even then, the results — like this season’s attempt at successfully navigating a supposedly tougher non-conference schedule than in past seasons — might be disappointing.