Earlier this season we published a Win Score analysis of the Creighton Bluejays men’s basketball team to cast a statistical conclusion about their individual effectiveness. The first analysis occurred after just six games, or just one-fifth of the Bluejays’ regular season games.
With the team squarely at the midpoint of the 2009-2010 season, both the Win Score stats and common observation make it fairly obvious who the most important player on this team is: Kenny Lawson.
The redshirt junior has been the most consistent player this season for the Bluejays, a fact the Win Score stats make painfully clear. The table below ranks the Bluejays based on Win Score, and includes their position at the time of the previous analysis on December 1.
Each of the 10 Bluejays in the main rotation of playing time has seen an increase in Win Score. But Lawson made the largest improvement, dramatically increasing his score from 2.36 in December to 6.07 through 14 games. His 12 points and 7 rebounds per game lead Creighton in both categories, and his double-doubles in the last two MVC games could signify Lawson is taking this team over from the inside out.
Lawson’s primary backup in the post, Wayne Runnels, currently posts the second best Win Score on the team. As the resident Armchair Coach on the WBR Staff, I have been making an argument all season that there should be a way to have Runnels and Lawson on the floor at the same time. Accounting for all of their statistics independent of being on the floor at the same time, Lawson and Runnels have performed the best to help produce wins. I’ll steal from some comments I left here on the site last week after the UNI game:
This could easily be done 10 to 20 minutes a game if not more. You start both at the beginning of the game together. Then after about 5-7 minutes or so you sub one of them out. I would think you could easily rotate (Casey) Harriman, (Chad) Millard, (Ethan) Wragge, and even (Justin) Carter down there then if you needed to for keeping both big men fresh. Then eventually have Runnels and Lawson out there together again for a period of time and Runnels gets to play more of his natural position.
Should Runnels get the opportunity to play with Lawson at the same time?
After another Armchair Coach sent Creighton Otter an e-mail after the Northern Iowa loss, suggesting Runnels and Lawson share some time on the court in a double post offense, Otter received an e-mail from a statistical guru who said of the idea “keep dreaming.” The guru pointed out:
Creighton has used 168 different 5-man combinations, only 3 of those have involved Lawson and Runnels at the same time. Creighton has used them together for a span of 3:08 all season, during which time CU scored 2 points and allowed 4 points.
Creighton’s most frequent lineup (Stinnett, Ashford, Lawson, Young, and Carter) has played together for 67:15 this year…no other lineup is over 19:45 of playing time together. That quintet is +36 together, and only one other lineup combination is better than +13 (Stinnett, Ashford, Lawson, Young, and Wragge).
Some may argue that putting Runnels in a position that people such as Kyle Korver or Dane Watts have played in the past wouldn’t work for Altman’s offense. However, I do remember days when guys like Mike Grimes and even Anthony Tolliver were at the position as well. But as Altman told T. Scott Marr on the Bluejays pregame radio show Sunday before the Evansville game, the offense has been gradually changing over the past couple of seasons. So, maybe it would work better than expected.
OK, enough of my “assistant” coaching and back to the Win Score. Stinnett and Carter have been more effective than people realize. Though Stinnett hasn’t been scoring as much as in previous seasons, he has changed his game enough between November and December by getting rebounds, looking for teammates with assists, and scoring in bunches. Carter also hasn’t been on the scoring end of things during December, but is Win Score is bolstered by his efforts on the boards, where he posts the second highest average of rebounds per game behind Lawson.
Sliding a bit based on Win Score is Darryl Ashford. Although his scored increased incrementally, he dropped from second to fifth on the effectiveness charts based on this stat. Also realizing a slight improvement in Win Score but a drop in effectiveness is Wragge. Fewer minutes and a propensity to foul have hurt the freshman’s Win Score and effectiveness on the court, though he still maintains the best long-range shooting percentage on the team.
Conclusion time. Just as we asked before the Nebraska game, coming off a tough trip to Orlando, who would you want to play the bulk of the minutes for the Bluejays? Before the Nebraska game, the Win Score analysis suggested:
PG: Antoine Young
SG: Darryl Ashford
SF: Justin Carter
PF: Wayne Runnels
C: Kenny Lawson
Now 14 games into the season, the Win Score points to the following lineup:
PG: Cavel Witter
SG: P’Allen Stinnett
SF: Justin Carter
PF: Wayne Runnels
C: Kenny Lawson
Would you go with that lineup? With this lineup on the floor, it is possible you could the most effective play. But if the past is any indication, it is one you probably won’t see the rest of the season. Should the strategy change a bit, rotation-wise? Should Altman try Runnels and Lawson together, for longer than the 3-plus minutes they’ve shared the court so far this season?
These stats don’t mean a lot, but wins do. And following their first MVC victory (and first road win of the season), the Bluejays have a home game against Drake to tinker with more rotations and strategies before they hit the road to Wichita on Saturday. Can the Jays capitalize on the Evansville win and start a win streak? Who do you want on the floor carrying the bulk of the responsibility to bring the Bluejays some Ws?