Behind the Numbers: Sign Guy’s Valley Predictor (2/16)

Creighton fans know Sign Guy. He’s entertained Bluejays fans at the Civic and Qwest Center with his timely, witty, and sometimes downright disturbing poster boards held high in the middle of Section 122. Sign Guy also happens to be a math wiz, and he puts those talents to good use with his Valley Predictor model.

For the past four Missouri Valley Conference seasons, I have created a Valley Predictor model and tracked the results as the MVC season progressed. My desire to do so is rooted in two core beliefs:

1. Creighton should compete for and win the MVC regular season title with more frequency than once every 8 years, and I want to know what has to happen to achieve that goal, and
2. Because of the dynamics of college basketball, the allotment of NCAA Tournament bids, and the quality of basketball displayed in the Valley, there are few conferences in America where every game matters as much as the Valley, whether it be the effect on post-season implications, seeding for Arch Madness, or national perception.

If I was patient or less of a numbers person, I could just wait for Rob Anderson or the MVC office to communicate what the various post-season scenarios are prior to the last weekend of games. But I’m not, so here it is.

• The tables below list the 10 Valley schools in order of their predicted finish according to the official Missouri Valley Conference Preseason Media Poll.
• Below is the abridged look at the 2010 MVC Forecast, with a glance at the current standings and what projections show the final three games will look like.
• A game shaded green is a forecasted Win, whereas a game shaded gray is a forecasted Loss.

As noted below, various scenarios should be looked at in a vacuum as there can be numerous moving parts. As you can see below, with just three games remaining, much of the Arch Madness jockeying for position still remains, and every game matters. Even in a less-than-desirable season for the Jays where Creighton knew early on its hopes of NCAA Tournament berth rested on the three (or four) game stretch in St. Louis, the bracket is coming together favorably for them at this point. Barring something totally crazy, the Jays should be on one side of the #4 vs. #5 game at Arch Madness, probably squaring off versus Bradley, Indiana State, or even Missouri State at this point, with UNI waiting in the 2nd round. Avoiding WSU and Illinois State until the Sunday finals is not a bad deal for the boys in blue.

Notes:

• Northern Iowa can clinch the regular season Missouri Valley Conference championship outright tonight versus Creighton. But even if the Bluejays pull off the upset in Cedar Falls, UNI’s magic number will remain 1. A Panthers win or a Wichita State loss does the trick. Probability: Very High.
• Speaking of the Shockers, WSU appears to lead the tie-breaker for 2^nd over Illinois State. Two Wichita wins and an ISUred loss clinch this. Probability: High.
• ISUred has just a 1-game lead over both Creighton and Bradley in the standings, but this is more like 2 games considering the Redbirds swept the season series from both the Jays and Braves. ISUred would need at most 2 wins to secure the 3-seed (if Bradley wins out OR if ISUblue wins out). Probability: High.
• Evansville has clinched 10^th place. Probability: 100%.

Tie-breaker scenarios/remaining games of importance (ALL OTHER THINGS BEING EQUAL FROM ABOVE FORECAST):

• Bradley @ ISUblue (Tuesday, Feb. 16, 6:05 p.m. CT)
  1. If ISUblue wins vs. Bradley, and Creighton, Bradley, ISUblue finish T-4^th at 9-9:
     • Mini-round robin records: Creighton 3-1, ISUblue 2-2; Bradley 1-3.
       • Results: Creighton 4^th place, ISUblue 5^th place, Bradley 6^th place, Drake 7^th place (win tie-breaker points), Missouri State 8^th place.
  2. If ISUblue wins vs. Bradley, but loses to Missouri State, and Creighton, Bradley, Missouri State finish T-4^th at 9-9:
     • Mini-round robin records: Creighton 3-1, Missouri State 2-2, Bradley 1-3.
       • Results: Creighton 4^th place, Missouri State 5^th place, Bradley 6^th place, ISUblue 7^th place (season sweep vs. Drake), Drake 8^th place.
• Drake @ Missouri State (Wednesday, Feb. 24, 7:05 p.m. CT)
  1. If Drake wins @ Missouri State, and Creighton, Drake finish T-5^th at 9-9:
     • Head-to-head results: Creighton 1-1, Drake 1-1
     • Tie-breaker points:
       • Unique Creighton wins (@ Bradley, vs. ISUblue, vs. Bradley) = 34 points
       • Unique Drake wins (vs. ISUred, @ Missouri State, @ Southern Illinois) = 25 points
     • Result: Bradley 4^th place, Creighton 5^th place, Drake 6^th place, ISUblue 7^th place, Southern Illinois (slight edge in power points by virtue of road win/home loss vs. Bradley opposed to Missouri State’s home win/road loss vs. Bradley) 8^th place, Missouri State 9^th place
• Combo time!
  1. If ISUblue defeats Bradley AND Drake wins @ Missouri State, resulting in a 4-way T-4^th with Creighton, Bradley, ISUblue, and Drake all finishing at 9-9:
     • Mini-round robin: Creighton 4-2, ISUblue 4-2, Bradley 3-3, Drake 1-5.
     • Tie-breaker points:
       • Unique Creighton wins (vs. WSU, @ Bradley) = 27 points
       • Unique ISUblue wins (vs. ISUred, @ Drake) = 25 points
     • Result: Creighton 4^th place, ISUblue 5^th place, Bradley 6^th place, Drake 7^th place, Southern Illinois 8^th place, Missouri State 9^th place