Creighton’s 2018-19 non-conference schedule is officially out, and most of it is no surprise to WBR readers that have followed along with Patrick Marshall’s thorough charts over on the Future Schedules page during the offseason. Today’s official release filled in the remaining gaps, confirmed dates for a couple of games that had yet to have one, and even threw in a curveball or two.
From a big picture perspective, there’s lots to like here. The exhibition game is on a Saturday. The home schedule is headlined by two big names in Ohio State and Gonzaga. The road schedule has a pair of power conference foes in Nebraska and Oklahoma. And depending on how the brackets shake out in the Cayman Islands tourney, the Bluejays will play five (or perhaps six) games versus NCAA Tournament teams from a year ago, and as many as eight games versus teams that made either the NCAAs or NIT. Out of 13 total non-conference games, that’s not too shabby. Pretty good, really.
Better still: six of the 12 known opponents are projected to be Top 100 teams according to CollegeSportsMadness.com’s Top 144 preview — Montana comes in at 87, Boise State is at 98, Oklahoma is at 99, and Ohio State, Nebraska, and Gonzaga will all be somewhere higher than that once their full ratings come out in the coming weeks. Oh, and Georgia State, a potential opponent in the Caymans, clocks in at #92. If the Jays draw them in the second game of that tourney, seven of their 13 non-con opponents will be projected to be Top 100 teams.
The schedule filler is better than years past too, with no 300+ anchors from the bottom three conferences in D1 (MEAC, Atlantic Sun, and SWAC) to drag down the averages. Western Illinois (293 in KenPom last year), Green Bay (263) and UMKC (276) are the bottom three teams on the schedule. East Tennessee State is a wild card; they were 25-9 a year ago, #93 in the final KenPom ratings, and were a game away from winning the Southern Conference regular season and tournament titles — but four of their starters were seniors and they’re likely to fall off this year. How much is up for debate, but even in the worst case scenario they’re probably in the 200-250 range.
Bottom line: There’s more than enough top-tier teams here to buoy their non-conference strength of schedule rating, and with no real dead weight to drag it down, the Jays should wind up with a NCSOS in the top half of D1 for the first time since the Doug McDermott years. If they take care of business, this is the type of schedule that will be a net positive in March should they find themselves in the NCAA Tournament discussion.
Of course, the usual caveats apply to any discussion of college basketball schedules three months before the season tips off. Some of the teams that are projected to be good won’t wind up finishing that way, and games that looked good at first blush might not be all that impressive by March. Look no further than last year for evidence of that — Northwestern, UCLA, and Baylor all looked like great early season tests, and all three significantly underachieved. What looked like a solid schedule wound up being ranked 224th.
But this one, on paper, on August 13, has the looks of a good, solid non-conference schedule. Here’s our quick breakdown of the slate:
Saturday, October 27: Winona State (Exhib.)
In this season’s lone public warmup, they’ll take on Winona State, coached by former Bluejay player and assistant Todd Eisner.
As we mentioned above, the exhibition will be on a Saturday, which is the first time since 2011 that the exhibition won’t be on a Friday, and the first time in at least 32 years that the Jays will have an exhibition game on a Saturday. The CU record book only includes results of exhibitions back to 1987, and there hasn’t been a single Saturday exhibition in that span. A Saturday exhibition is a novelty, and a rather nice one at that.
Tuesday, November 6: Western Illinois
The season opener is the Leathernecks from Western Illinois, who finished 12-16 a year ago. But they return all but one of their top scorers from that team, and are led by seven-footer Brandon Gilbeck. He’s the reigning Summit League defensive player of the year and the program’s career blocks leader after averaging 2.5 swats per game a year ago. Gilbeck will be a stout early test for Creighton’s big men, and it’s a safe bet the Leathernecks will wind up being quite a bit better than they were a year ago.
Sunday, November 11: East Tennessee State
If it was last year’s ETSU team heading to Omaha, this would be one of those under-the-radar, sneaky upset alert games — they had a 22-point second half lead on the road at Xavier last December before losing 68-66. They were highly competitive in Lexington against Kentucky, too. They had a 25-9 record, were a win in the SoCon Tournament away from an NCAA Tournament berth, and were a Top 100 team in just about every metric.
But, the team coming to Omaha this fall isn’t that one. It’s one undergoing a massive rebuild. They lost EIGHT seniors off of that team, and return just one player that received significant playing time.
Thursday, November 15: Ohio State
Courtesy of the Gavitt Tipoff Games, Creighton gets another exciting home game against a top shelf Big Ten team — two years ago it was Wisconsin, and this year it’s Ohio State. Chris Holtmann’s Buckeyes lost four of their top six players from a year ago, including Big Ten player of the year Keita Bates-Diop. But he brought in a Top 25 recruiting class, so it’s not so much a rebuilding year as a reloading. They have the looks of a team that will be much, much better in February and March than they are in November (especially with Holtmann at the helm). A win here likely pays huge dividends down the road.
Monday, November 19: Boise State in the Cayman Islands
The opening round of the Cayman Islands Classic features a matchup with Boise State. They may not have Chandler Hutchison, a first-round NBA draft pick who averaged 19.3 points, 7.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game last season, but the Broncos have been remarkably consistent and show no signs of a massive drop. They’ve won 20 or more games in each of the last six seasons, and have finished inside the Top 100 of most major computer rankings each of those seasons, too.
Tuesday, November 20: St. Bonaventure or Georgia State
If it’s St. Bonaventure, the Jays will be taking on a team reloading after the departure of Jaylen Adams and Matt Mobley. The Bonnies return just two of their top six scorers from their NCAA Tournament squad of a year ago. Georgia State, on the other hand, returns just about their entire team a year after going 24-11 and winning the Sun Belt en route to an NCAA Tournament berth. D’Marcus Simonds, Devin Mitchell and Jeff Thomas all scored in double digits last year, and all three are back.
Wednesday, November 21: Akron, Clemson, Georgia, or Illinois State
Creighton will get one of these four teams in their third game in the Caymans. Clemson ended last season in the Sweet 16 at the Midwest Regional in Omaha. Georgia is a team on the upswing after an 18-15 season that ended in a surprise run to the semifinals of the SEC Tournament. Akron is a young team that struggled mightily a year ago, going 3-8 over the final six weeks of the season to finish what had been a decent start to John Groce’s tenure with a bad taste. And then there’s old MVC foe Illinois State, still coached by Dan Muller as they were the last time CU met them in 2012. The Redbirds took a downturn a year ago, going 18-15 a year after they were left out of the NCAA Tournament despite a 28-7 record. Muller’s young team ended the year strong, though, making a run to the MVC title game.
Wednesday, November 28: Montana
This game has Upset Alert written all over it. Montana returns four of their five starters, plus their sixth man, off of a team that won the regular season and tournament titles in the Big Sky a year ago. Their top three scorers, Ahmaad Rorie, Michael Oguine and Jamar Akoh, are all seniors with plenty of experience in the spotlight. While the casual fan might not get terribly excited about a game with Montana, college hoopheads know the Grizzlies are a helluva team and quite capable of pulling off the upset. Especially with where this game falls on the schedule — a mid week game seven days after the previous game, with Thanksgiving in between, and a Saturday showdown with Gonzaga looming.
Saturday, December 1: Gonzaga
The temptation to look ahead to Gonzaga will be real, for fans and players alike. It’s human nature. The Zags will almost certainly begin the year ranked in the top five, and by the season’s second month, could very well still be there — or higher. They return versatile big men Killian Tillie and Rui Hachimura (Tillie was just about unstoppable in last year’s game in Spokane, with 22 points, 8 boards and 3 blocks; Hachimura was in foul trouble all night and didn’t do much damage). They also return a pair of big-time shooters in Zach Norvell (21 points in that game, including four 3-pointers) and Josh Perkins (just five points, but six boards). CU isn’t a home underdog very often, especially in the non-conference. They will be in this one.
Saturday, December 8: at Nebraska
Tim Miles has never beaten Creighton (or Greg McDermott, for that matter), and the Huskers have a seven-game losing streak to the Bluejays. But for one of the rare times in recent NU basketball history, they’ll enter the season predicted to be an NCAA Tournament team by people outside of the Big Red Echo Chamber. With a core of James Palmer, Isaiah Roby, Glynn Watson and Isaac Copeland, it’s easy to see why.
Friday, December 14: Green Bay
UWGB has seen their fortunes take a downturn — after winning 20 or more games three straight seasons from 2014-2016, a run that featured two NIT berths and an NCAA Tournament bid, they went 18-14 two years ago and collapsed to 13-20 last year. They lose their leading scorer, Khalil Small, off of that team, but do return four of their top six scorers.
Tuesday, December 18: at Oklahoma
Superstar Trae Young has departed, but the Sooners have tried to rebuild their roster quickly by adding two grad transfers and a JUCO transfer to an otherwise-veteran team. Much like Ohio State, it seems like a safe bet that Oklahoma will be much better in February and March than they are when they host the Bluejays on December 18.
Thursday, December 20: Coe College (DIII)
Yes, there’s another non-D1 game during the regular season with DIII Coe College coming here right before Christmas, which I know drives some fans absolutely crazy. It is what it is. I write it every year — with the Big East slate, scheduling every home game to be against a team projected to have a good season (or even against “name” teams the casual fan recognizes and gets excited for) would be madness. Given where that game is on the schedule, right before Christmas break, the alternative to Coe was likely to be a 300+ SWAC team that would be just as uncompetitive. Might as well make it a game that doesn’t count against your NCSOS / RPI / computer metrics.
Thursday, December 27: UMKC
UMKC is coming off a 10-22 season a year ago, and the prognosis isn’t a lot better for 2018-19. Two years ago, UMKC gave the Jays a scare in the season opener by rallying from a huge deficit after the starters took a curtain call to cut the deficit to single-digits, and lost by just seven. Xavier Bishop and Aleer Leek are the only two ‘Roos still around from that squad (Bishop scored nine points that night; Leek had seven). They’re two of four returning starters this time around, and have grown into two of their top scorers. But they’ve got work to do to make a move in the WAC.