Keeping Up With the Valley Race: Implications at UNI

Creighton’s very own Sign Guy has been sitting at midcourt for years with witty signs and conversation pieces during Creighton games. Turns out he is also a statistical guru. Sign Guy weighs in about the race for the Missouri Valley Conference regular season title before tonight’s game at Northern Iowa.

Note: This was written before Indiana State lost at Missouri State Tuesday night.

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Everyone’s favorite statistical encyclopedia, Creighton Sports Information Director Rob Anderson, noted that not only have the Jays recently been 2 games up with 6 games to play; in 2002, the Jays were 2 up over Southern Illinois with 3 to play. Then the Jays lost at SIU and followed that two games later with a home Senior Day loss versus Drake, splitting the regular season title with the Salukis. The Jays did end up defeating SIU in the Arch Madness finals and then rode famed 6^th Man Terrell Taylor to a two-overtime victory over Florida. Ultimately, Creighton lost by 12 to Illinois in the round of 32. But it wasn’t all a bummer.

Just last week we were hopeful Creighton would win at Indiana State and take command of the MVC title race, but then the Jays went Gregory Echenique with a double goose egg in their next two games. So here we are with six games remaining, four of them on the road, in a season of enormous national parity, standing on a ledge, wondering if we should cancel hotel reservations in the eight 2^nd/3^rd round sites to fund our home NIT tickets. Being a Valley fan is taxing and it often doesn’t make sense. But not everything is supposed to make sense, like that time Heidi Klum married Seal. Not everything has an answer.

Wednesday is a big day, and not just because the Resurrection will occur just 40 days after that (side note for planners: Easter weekend is also Regional Semifinal/Final weekend, so if you haven’t yet notified your mother or mother-in-law that you may be missing Easter this year, now is a good time for that). The Jays @ Panthers matchup looms large for both schools in the quest for best possible seeding at Arch Madness.

At just 7-6 in Valley play, UNI has the easiest road to the Valley finish, with its five remaining opponents’ combined record a meager 27-38. Even though three of its final five MVC games are on the road, CU could be all that stands in the way of UNI and a 12-6 finish, which could very possibly tie for 1^st place in the Valley.

The Jays on the other hand…obviously, they need a win, a boost of confidence, and a Mark Adams motivational speech. With three of the final five Valley games on the road (and, record-wise, the 3^rd most difficult remaining road schedule behind Wichita State and Drake), the Jays need to match Indiana State (and WSU for the time being). Creighton has no margin for error.

I’m sure many Kool-Aid drinkers are thinking to themselves, “It’s UNI; they had 30 points at home vs. Missouri State last week with 6:30 left in the game. If we score 50, we win. Besides, we beat them 79-68 in Omaha.” To that, I offer this:

• The Jays have played four schools twice so far this season (Drake, Missouri State, Indiana State, Illinois State). The Jays were 4-0 in the initial matchup and have fared 1-3 in the rematches.
• In the four initial matchups, the Jays outscored their opponents 323-251; in the four rematches, the Jays have been outscored 302-289 (and the latter includes a 14-point victory over MSU in that rematch). That’s a difference in average score from 81-63 to 72-76.

Many are asking: “What is happening? What has changed?” Some credit (perhaps a lot) must be given to opposing coaches who are familiar with personnel, weapons, and coaching styles. It’s a small sample size, but in just these four rematches, defensive focus helps account for the 22-point swing in scoring margin.

• In those four initial meetings, Austin Chatman (AC) and Grant Gibbs (GG) combined for 48 assists and 19 turnovers — a 2.5 assist to turnover ratio (ATO).
• In the four rematches, AC and GG combined for just 32 assists and 15 turnovers — 2.1 ATO (included here are GG’s 8 assists in the loss at Drake, of which the majority were in Doug McDermott’s 17-point 1^st half pre-flu performance, as GG tallied the bulk of his points in the 2^nd half comeback).

So a decrease of 4 assists/game combined from AC a GG seems to account for a 9-point dip in scoring average, right? It is certainly one part of that equation, but also consider from where the shots are being taken:

• Jays fans have heard/read ad nauseam that GG generates a high percentage of his assists on passes into Doug on the low block. Similarly, AC has certainly generated a fair number of his assists on the Doug trailer three-pointer. With credit due to Rob Anderson, Doug averaged 3.9 makes/game using the backboard in the 19 games before the Drake game in Des Moines. In the six games since, Doug has only averaged 2.5 makes/game using the backboard. Consequently, in this super small sample size, Doug had 15 three-point field goal attempts in the initial four meetings, but that increased to 23 three-point field goal attempts in the four rematches.
• In the four initial meetings, AC and GG combined to shoot 18-37 from the field. In the four rematches, they combined to shoot 30-67 from the field. Not a terrible percentage at all, but 30 more shots, or about 8 more shots combined from them per game. Defenses are daring AC and GG to shoot more. For the season, Gibbs is averaging 11.2 field goal attempts in the 5 losses and 4.9 field goal attempts in the 20 wins. (h/t Rob Anderson)

All of this probably means nothing, and hopefully the Jays can right the offense on Wednesday night.

This week’s “Live by the three, die by the three” stat that probably means something more than nothing and you’ll definitely think about it:

• In the Jays’ 20 wins this season, Jahenns Manigat and Ethan Wragge are connecting on 46.3% and 48.7% of their three-point field goal attempts, respectively.
• In the Jays 5 losses, the two of them are connecting on 11% and 21.7% of their three-point field goal attempts, respectively. (h/t Rob Anderson, again)

So, armed with all of that, here’s one reason for optimism Wednesday night: the Jays are 3-0 in their last three Ash Wednesday contests, with the most recent of those victories coming against — you guessed it — UNI on February 9, 2005. The last Ash Wednesday defeat, unfortunately, also occurred in Cedar Falls, when the Jays fell 87-73 in the UNIdome on February 21, 1996. The Jays are 0-0 all-time on Ash Wednesdays when a lame duck pope is occupying the papacy.

Here are some important rest-of-the-league considerations:

• Notable non-con SOS (MVC tie-breaker #2 after head-to-head) per warrennolan.com:
  • Indiana State: 23
  • Northern Iowa: 33
  • Creighton: 90
  • Wichita State: 98
• It appears the Jays could capture the #1 seed in Arch Madness with an outright title or splitting with the Shockers (though the non-con SOS numbers are still fluid, but the game at St. Mary’s will help the Jays). Any tie involving Indiana State should relegate the Jays to the #2-seed.
• In the world of tie-breakers:
  • UNI appears to put a stronghold on the head-to-head vs. CU with a win Wednesday night; CU would own head-to-head with a win.
  • Indiana State owns tie-breakers over UNI and appears to own tie-breakers over CU and WSU (and the Sycamores host the Shockers for a season sweep yet).
  • UNI appears to own tie-breaker over WSU.
  • If Creighton splits with these other three teams (at worst), then any multi-team tie involving UNI and Indiana State would put the Jays ahead of UNI based on ISU-Blue’s sweep of UNI (same goes if the Sycamores completes the Shocker sweep next week).

Valley hoops is so much fun! 23 days until St. Louis!