The Jays have been a near-unanimous first-place pick in the human polls that have been released so far — and average a third-place finish in the computer models. They’re among the top dozen or so teams nationally in each of those human polls, but far lower in almost every computer metric. The divergence between the two is a pretty interesting subplot entering the season.
They’re #32 in Haslametrics’ preseason ranking, and fifth in the Big East (behind Nova, Xavier, UConn and Seton Hall). They’re #23 in T-Rank (behind Nova and Xavier). They’re 41st in Massey Ratings and fifth in the Big East. And they’re 22nd in KenPom, behind Villanova.
Yet in the preseason AP Top 25, they’re #9. Villanova, ahead of the Jays in every single computer model, is seven spots lower at #16. And Tuesday morning in New York City, Creighton was picked as the preseason favorite in the Big East at the league’s media day, receiving eight of 11 first-place votes — Villanova, comparatively the darlings of computer models, was a distant third.
So what gives?
For one, computer models are immune to the hype that comes from advancing to the Big East title game and nearly beating the eventual National Champion in the second round of the NCAA Tournament without two of your best players, both of whom are returning. And computer models ignore the general-badassery of Arthur Kaluma in the NCAA Tourney and for Team Uganda this summer. It’s an unvarnished look.
Secondly, it’s also somewhat skewed toward past performance because there isn’t any math for this season yet. Their specific formulas differ, but the general recipe is the same for all preseason computer metrics — taking the data you do have, and projecting it forward to give you a baseline measurement. It’s an important part of the process, because by setting a baseline, you usually don’t have the shocking outliers that you see in the first NET ranking which drops roughly one month into the season.
To see the importance of setting a baseline, look no further than KenPom’s preseason ranking. He’s been extraordinarily accurate in projecting Creighton specifically, and the Big East generally, over the last decade.
Last year, the Jays were 53rd in his preseason rating and finished 50th. Two years ago, they started 14th and ended 22nd. Over their nine years in the Big East, they’ve only had a +/- fluctuation of more than 25 spots from their preseason KenPom ranking to their final KenPom twice*. Four of the nine seasons, his math has pegged them within single digits of where they ended up.
*It’s not shocking that those two seasons were 2014-15 and 2015-16. The first of those years the math was trying to predict what the post-Doug McDermott era would look like, and the second was trying to predict how they’d rebound from the wreckage of the year before. KenPom was 32 spots off in 2014-15 (they started at 47 and finished 79th), and off by 45 in the other direction the next year (they started 85th and finished 40th).
It’s true for the league as a whole, too. Over nine seasons, nearly half of KenPom’s 99 preseason predictions have been within 15 spots of the predicted one, and 68% have been within 30. Marquette blog “Paint Touches” took a deep dive on this earlier today; I was glad to see I wasn’t the only one thinking on this wavelength.
Third, keep in mind the Jays finished #50 in KenPom’s final rating a year ago after a season where advanced metrics weren’t impressed by them — partially because of their early struggles to beat terrible teams in November and December, partially because of the ugliness with which they won games even in February and March. A 28-spot jump is pretty significant, but because the starting point was #50, that jump still leaves them as a fringe-Top 25 team.
The nitty-gritty of KenPom’s statistical projections provide some great insight into how he arrived there.
2021-22 / 2022-23 (Proj.)
Overall: 50 / 22
AdjO: 112 / 29
AdjD: 19 / 21
AdjT: 178 / 153
His math projects their defense to be ever-so-slightly worse, their pace to be a bit faster, and their offense to be significantly better.
In other words, the loss of Ryan Hawkins and Alex O’Connell defensively isn’t projected to make much of a difference. But the improvement in Kaluma and Trey Alexander, plus a full season of Ryan Nembhard and the addition of Baylor Scheierman, plus the general improvement a team of freshman typically makes in their sophomore seasons, is projected to get them close to a typical Greg McDermott offensive attack.
Are they a Top 10 team, like the AP voters think? Or a fringe Top 25 team, like KenPom’s data thinks? Either way, any team whose adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency both rank inside the Top 30 is well-positioned to make a run in March — and that’s ultimately what the season will be judged on.
Kalkbrenner, Kaluma, Nembhard and Scheierman Honored
Four of Creighton’s five starters were on either the first, second, or honorable mention All-Big East teams. The lone exception? March star Trey Alexander. It’s a curious omission, but there’s only so many spots — and Creighton’s balance comes in to play here, too. Xavier has two players on the first team because there’s a clear-cut pecking order in their lineup. Forward Jack Nunge and guard Colby Jones are undoubtably their two best players; Zach Freemantle is a good third wheel but isn’t siphoning any votes away from those guys.
Kalkbrenner is CU’s top player and a deserving first-team honoree. But Nembhard, Kaluma, Scheierman, or Alexander will probably take turns at the top of the pecking order. That balance is what makes Creighton so tough. It also makes it tough for all of them to be properly honored on All-Big East teams.
Connecticut forward Adama Sanogo was named the Preseason Player of the Year, a fact that raised some eyebrows in Omaha. Statistically, he was great a year ago — he ranked seventh in the league in scoring with a 15.1 average, led the league in rebounding with 9.7 per game, and was first in field goal shooting at 50.9 percent. But Kalkbrenner was better offensively head-to-head in two matchups a year ago (Sanogo had 21 total points in the two games on 9-of-26 shooting; Kalkbrenner had 20 in the second half alone of the win Omaha). And Creighton won both games. There was a swagger to Kalkbrenner in those games, a chip on his shoulder that came from a feeling of disrespect by people around the league. Remember what he said on the postgame radio show after the win in Omaha?
“Everyone talks about Sanogo being one of the best bigs or sometimes the best big man in the Big East. Tonight I got a chance to prove that I’m just as good if not better than him. It was a big time battle and I feel like I came out on top.”
He doubled down on that in September, telling the Big East Digital Network’s John Fanta that “It’s always fun going up against him. I see he’s on preseason All-American lists. He’s above me in preseason honors. I see that. That just means I gotta show people they were wrong when we play.”
By Tuesday in NYC, he took a more measured approach.
“I gotta be careful with what I say,” Kalkbrenner told the assembled media. “I’m confident in my abilities. In my head I know where I’m at. I don’t want to say anything controversial. But I think it also hurts me having five other guys on my team who are equally as talented as I am, so it’s gonna be spread out throughout the whole team. I don’t really care. I think we’re gonna find out when we play them.”
McDermott Knows the Jays are Now the Hunted
Picked eighth a year ago, the Jays thrived in the underdog role. They’ve met or exceeded their preseason Big East poll slot every year since joining the league. But this year, they’re the consensus favorite for the first time. It’s a different mindset.
“Certainly from a depth standpoint we have experience and we have a lot of versatility,” McDermott said at Tuesday’s media day. “We have a starting five that can do a lot of things. We can be small and quick or we can be big and physical. We just have to make sure our defense is elite like it was last year and then hopefully in time our offense will catch up.”
He added that in his mind, preseason polls matter less than they used to because of the transfer portal.
“You just don’t know how transfers are going to fit and mesh,” he said. “But I like our group. I think we have a chance to do some special things, but I also think the league is really good.”
And if coaching the league favorite has added pressure, it isn’t showing. In an interview on the Big East Digital Network, he joked with Providence coach Ed Cooley the way only two old friends can.
“I have a question for Ed,” he said at the top of their segment. “Are you going to play all your games this season? That was the best phone call I got last year. 2:00 in the afternoon on game day (Fake coughing).”
“We got to play them for a conference championship, and I think he bought about 56 kegs of beer for that crowd,” McDermott added, before being interrupted by Cooley.
“74 kegs of beer. And then about eight days later we got beat by a million right here on this floor.”
“They drank it, and then they threw it at us,” McDermott countered. “Only at the Dunk.”