I’m penning this from the bar at the Kansas City Airport Marriott.
I was planning to write my annual Missouri Valley Conference Big East tournament preview from the comforts of my own home, a few hours before leaving via Omaha for New York City. But Mother Nature’s a cruel bitch, and now I’m leaving for N.Y.C via K.C.
ANYWAY… how ‘bout them Bluejays, huh? A year ago, Creighton fans were writhing in anticipation of the athletic program’s big break — an invitation to join a reconfigured Big East Conference. Having just won what would be their final appearance at Arch Madness, the Jays were assured a spot in the 2013 NCAA Tournament. The week of the Big Dance, Creighton officially accepted the aforementioned invite to the Big East.
Fast forward 12 months, and the Jays just finished their first season in the league 14-4, good for second place. Creighton’s a lock for another NCAA Tournament, touting computer numbers that are exceptional and boasting the best player in college hoops.
Doug McDermott will almost assuredly pick up the Big East Player of the Year award Wednesday. A few weeks from now, he’ll most likely snag the Naismith National Player of the Year award too. In between, McDermott and his teammates have the opportunity to win another conference tournament and add to the hardware on the Hilltop.
So, about that tournament, does anyone have a clue how this Big East Men’s Basketball Tournament is going to shake out the next few days?
I don’t. I mean, I think Creighton has as good a chance as any team, if not better, to win the whole damn thing. Between McDermott, Ethan Wragge, Grant Gibbs, Jahenns Manigat, and Austin Chatman, the core Bluejays haven’t lost a conference tournament game since the semifinals in 2011 (heck, Gibbs wasn’t playing for CU at that point, either, and it seems like he’s been here forever).
Sure, the six straight wins came in St. Louis, as part of another league. But stakes being as they are, Greg McDermott’s Bluejays have won 8 postseason games in the past two years, if you count NCAA Tournament second round victories in 2012 and 2013. That’s pretty solid, of course.
You can bet that Bluejays fans are flocking to Madison Square Garden this week with memories of those past March successes fresh in their minds. But blue-clad fans inside and outside Manhattan are certain to realize they’re far, far away from Laclede’s Landing and the action inside Scottrade Center the next few days.
DePaul is, to this semi-trained eye, by far the worst team in the Big East.
They’re the #10 seed in week’s Big East tournament, an underdog to #7-seed Georgetown in the tournament’s first round. The Blue Demons sport a #182 rating according to Kenpom.com. The Hoyas are #49. I know it’s only one metric, but it’s telling that Georgetown — two spots worse in Kenpom than Nebraska, the Big Ten’s #4 team — is in the play-in game in NYC and sports a top-50 Kenpom rating. That’s depth, right?
Oh, and DePaul? The worst team in the Big East, with that #182 Kenpom rating? There are four MVC teams with worse Kenpom scores. Just sayin’.
#9-seed Butler (#96) and #8-seed Seton Hall (#90) meet in the first game on Wednesday, and they both sport top-100 Kenpom ratings.
The Bulldogs stomped the Pirates to end the regular season; they get the turnaround special. The winner gets #1-seed Villanova (#6 Kenpom) on Friday. The Wildcats are trying to secure a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament; they’ve only lost two conference games all season — both to the Creighton Bluejays.
Speaking of our beloved Bluejays (#9 Kenpom), they’ll get a Thursday evening quarterfinal against DePaul or Georgetown.
My money’s on the Hoyas to face CU, a situation that unfortunately conjures thoughts of CU’s loss in D.C. last week.
In one of the other quarterfinals, #4-seed Providence (#53 Kenpom) and #5-seed St. John’s (#37) meet Thursday afternoon.
Both teams can’t afford to lose if they want to remain in contention for an at-large spot in the NCAA Tournament. The two teams split wins at each other’s home gyms, and Thursday’s matchup promises to be an intriguing rubber match.
In the quarterfinal nightcap, #3-seed Xavier (#44 Kenpom) plays #6-seed Marquette (#59).
The Musketeers and Golden Eagles did the traditional split of home wins this conference season. Marquette needs to win the tournament this week to get into the NCAA Tournament, while Xavier can avoid any doubts by advancing to the semifinals Friday at MSG.
Seriously, those quarterfinals are pretty solid, especially considering what Jays fans have watched the past few Fridays in St. Louis. That’s not a holier-than-thou statement; merely, facts. The Big East is deeeeeeep, and let’s be honest … that depth could leave a swarm of Creighton fans spending Saturday evening — or, gulp, Friday evening — jamming into a crowded restaurant in Little Italy or standing in line for a trendy spot in the Meatpacking District instead of watching the Bluejays compete for a Big East tournament crown.
Still, I like my odds siding with the Big East and National POY and his band of Bluejays. I wouldn’t be driving halfway around the Midwest to catch a rescheduled flight if I didn’t.