I watched as much of the Old Spice Classic as possible during Thanksgiving weekend. In between digesting copious amounts of food, hoisting a few brews, and enjoying the central Iowa sun for a couple of jogs, I managed to monitor the event so many Creighton fans had clamored for during the better part of the last year.
During timeouts, the folks at ESPN showed footage from teams’ days at Disney World. The unintentional comedy that comes from watching a gangly 6-9 forward bounce awkwardly through a rollercoaster ride is nearly unmatched. And who wouldn’t look like he is having fun going down one of the water rides in Florida at the end of November?
I never saw Bluejays players, dressed in Nike blue warm-ups, on these rides. And after Creighton’s catastrophic calamity on the Milk House court this weekend, I wonder if one of the theme park’s rides could aptly sum up CU’s trip to the Old Spice Classic. Is there some sort of a black hole ride, during which the floor drops out from underneath the riders and their stomachs turn with uneasy queasiness? Because that’s what Jays fans felt when they watched the last 10 minutes of the Michigan loss and the resulting two games in the losers bracket (oh, wait, I’m sorry … consolation bracket).
I don’t know if there is a ride at Disney that can compare to Creighton’s disappointing weekend at the Old Spice Classic. But this much I know: the trip wasn’t all twirling tea cups and literal walks on the beach for the Bluejays.
Black Friday, Continued
Here’s a paragraph from my recap of the Creighton-Michigan game Thursday:
All in all, these two teams competed for 45 minutes in what was an entertaining start to the Old Spice Classic. And Creighton’s effort for the better part of the game bodes well for the season as a whole. Still, winning some of these games against the opponents CU can’t get on the schedule on a regular basis (and winning games when the Jays have late leads, regardless of opponent) would do a lot to reassure a fan base that has to be wondering aloud whether Creighton’s players and coaches have the killer instinct.
“Bodes well for the season as a whole” kind of went right out the window Friday afternoon, didn’t it? Saying Creighton’s effort versus Xavier was anything better than “ehhh” would be a lie of “We’re really ready to play with the Big Boys!” proportions. And I don’t think CU fans have to worry about wondering if the Bluejays have the killer instinct; they were in no position to kill anything this weekend, unless you count their chances at a no-doubt at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament come March.
Remember when I mentioned the “broken records” in Friday morning’s “Ott’s Thoughts”? One we always hear as Creighton fans is the focus on rebounding. Funny story about rebounding, though: if you can’t hit shots, and if you turn the ball over, and if you don’t play defense, rebounding really doesn’t mean anything. For the weekend, the Bluejays beat opponents on the boards 101-98. They lost the margin to Michigan by 2, to Xavier by 1, and beat Iona 29-23.
The rebounding numbers are just one of a select few bright spots from a Black Friday that stretched through the end of the weekend. And I’ll cover a few of those better performances later on. But let’s get the bad stuff (or, at least, some of the bad stuff … there’s a lot) out of the way first.
- After shooting 50% from the field against Michigan, the Bluejays shot just 40% over the last 80 minutes of the tournament. Conversely, Creighton’s opponents in the last two games combined to shoot 49% against Dana Altman’s defense.
- Creighton settled for 3-pointers 39% of the time against Xavier and 37% of the time against Iona (% of field goal attempts that came from outside the arc). Conversely, the Musketeers settled for 3s only 33% of the time, and the Gaels 34% of the time. Needless to say, both opponents were more efficient with these shots (XU hit 50% of its 3s against CU, Iona 56%).
- The Bluejays gave the ball away at an alarming rate. Creighton lost the turnover margin 49-33 for the weekend, including 31-22 in the final two games. For the season, the Jays are averaging 16 turnovers a game, while they are forcing just 14 per contest on average.CU’s 21 turnovers were its most since last season, when the Jays coughed the ball up 24 times in Lincoln against Doc Sadler’s stingy defense. Guess who the Bluejays welcome to the Qwest Center this Sunday? Over/under on Bluejays turnovers at 20?
- Michigan stole the ball from Creighton 10 times Thursday. That’s OK, though, because of the Wolverines’ unique defenses and the length of their perimeter players’ arms, right? Wrong. Xavier stole the ball from the Bluejays 8 times Friday. Iona had 8 steals, too.Creighton, on the other hand, stole the ball ONE time from Xavier, and just 5 times against the Gaels. The Bluejays did swipe 6 steals against Michigan. You know, when they seemed interested in being in the tournament.
These statistics are cause for concern. That’s not exactly a bold statement. But perhaps bold is exactly what the personnel decisions Altman and his staff might be forced to make following this weekend’s debacle should be.
80 Minutes of Hell
Maybe the Bluejays could start by scraping the full-court press for awhile? While I don’t think Creighton fans thought Altman’s teams would throw a press equal to Nolan Richardson’s 40 Minutes of Hell on the Qwest Center court any time soon, the coaching staff and players all seemed to say the same thing heading into this season: the press is back, because we’re deep enough to pull it off.
Depth is one thing, if the players are ready to play. But watching Michigan, Xavier, and Iona make two quick passes over/through our press, and then set up quick scores, felt about as repetitious as seeing those creepy/brilliant Old Spice “I’m a man” commercials on ESPN2/ESPNU all weekend. Could it be that our vaunted press doesn’t work well unless it is against the Florida A&Ms and Houston Baptists of the college hoops world?
Sure, like anything, there were a few times when backcourt pressure caused opponents problems. But a quick timeout and a simple whiteboard solution from the coaches seemed to be all Xavier and Iona needed to break the press. And sure, missing Justin Carter and Antoine Young for large segments of those last two games didn’t help, but how long can a team blame the injuries of some for the inadequate play of others?
The argument about depth naturally devolves into a difficult discussion about who for Creighton should even be on the court. If the reason Altman gives 10 or more guys meaningful minutes each game is to “keep fresh legs” and instill intense defensive pressure, and the press/pressure doesn’t work, then should the rotation be tightened? Say what you want about the reasons (injuries, defections, recruiting mishaps), but the last time the Bluejays went to the NCAA Tournament, they did so squarely on the shoulders of Nate Funk, Anthony Tolliver, Dane Watts, Nick Porter, Isacc Miles, Josh Dotzler, Nick Bahe, and Pierce Hibma. Eight guys, with just five of them (the first five mentioned) playing 22 mpg or more.
This season, through 6 games, there are 11 guys averaging 11 mpg or more. Altman talks about the time it takes for the rotations to work themselves out, but does a 2-4 start to the season speed that process up at all? Let’s say, for the sake of comparisons, that no one is playing good defense for Altman: not such a drastic statement, given the defensive breakdowns at all ends of the court this weekend and at Dayton. If that’s the case, and if the press doesn’t retain the proverbial “bite” it once did (way back when, in the glorious Big Dance days of 2001-2002-2003), shouldn’t the strategy be to put the tightest rotation possible on the court, one that makes the most of its scoring opportunities?
I say this because some of the combinations on the court during key minutes of the Xavier and Iona games made me wonder if I ate a bad piece of leftover turkey. I’m done looking at the names on the backs of jerseys; as a fan of a team that trailed most of the last 80 minutes of basketball they played in Orlando, I wanted guys on the floor looking to score. I might not know the sweet science of putting the right players on the court together, but riding the hot hands might have been a good idea.
This includes Ethan Wragge. One of the aforementioned bright spots from this weekend, at least from the offensive side of the ball, the freshman from Minnesota continues to impress in limited playing time. How limited?
Five Creighton players average 9 points per game or more through 6 games. That includes Justin Carter, who in just 57 minutes of action (in 3 games) has scored 32 points — .561 points per minute. Kenny Lawson leads CU with 11.3 ppg, and he averages .496 points per minute. He is followed closely by Darryl Ashford’s 11.0 ppg, who has played about 20 minutes more than Lawson (.432 points per minute).
Wragge, on the other hand, as played just about half the minutes Ashford has, yet has scored 10.5 ppg. That’s good for an average of .715 points per minute. Compare that average to that of supposed star P’Allen Stinnett (.378 points per minute) (Piv sums it up pretty well in the link), and you see who is making the most of his minutes on the court.
Again, I add this with the caveat that maybe Wragge isn’t the best defender. But if no one is playing great D for the Jays, then maybe the folks who want to shoot and have hit some shots should see more minutes. Wragge has the second best shooting percentage on the team, and he has done that even with 84% of his shots coming from 3-point range.
But maybe there is some sort of unwritten rule on the Hilltop that makes Creighton’s best freshmen wait until midway through the season to see an increase in minutes. Last year, Antoine Young’s run of double digit minutes didn’t start until January 10; the Bluejays needed a boost, and Young supplied one. The season before, P’Allen provided a boost off the bench until January 12, when a CU team looking for some athleticism turned to the true frosh. Isaac Miles played a lot of minutes early as a freshman, mostly because Josh Dotzler was returning from injury. And Dotzler played a lot of minutes as a freshman because Johnny Mathies was more of a scoring guard. Still, Dotzler didn’t get the starting nod until 11/30/2005, exactly four years ago today. Dane Watts and Tyler McKinney played a lot as freshmen, and eventually started, but it wasn’t until the last week of December that both of them began starting for Altman night in and night out.
In many of those seasons, Altman’s teams had veterans who handled the brunt of the early season scoring, allowing the frosh to develop at the beginning of the year and then contribute more as the year went along. But because of Carter’s injury, the lack of depth behind Lawson at the true center position, and erratic offensive efforts from the Bluejays’ core of veteran returners, the time might be now for Wragge to increase his workload. As my dad says, “at least he looks like he wants to shoot it every time he gets it.” When you’re making 50% of your shots, a quick trigger would be a good thing to employ.
Reality Check
The point of my focus on Wragge is that many times this weekend, and so far this season, our best players have been our newcomers. With so many guys back from last season’s team, many Jays fans thought the veterans would lead the way early in the season while the newbies got their feet wet. This “veteran presence” would give CU an advantage. But in Orlando, Creighton lost to a Xavier team with a new head coach and a majority of the best players on last season’s team gone. The Bluejays got beat by an Iona team with a lot of freshmen and sophomores.
And the next month doesn’t get any easier. Does that change Altman’s process for putting the best possible team together? Will the coaching staff continue to stay the course, preaching the usual tenets of Creighton Basketball while hoping the rotations work themselves out? Or are there drastic decisions on the horizon?
And I’m not just talking from a personnel perspective. What about scheduling? With the Phone Booth drawing upwards of 15,000 people per game, we have a home court advantage unique to the Missouri Valley Conference and other mid-major leagues. And our consistent success has given the program ammunition with which to defend the decision to avoid scheduling the wrong ends of 2-for-1 and 1-and-done matchups with big league schools. But can Creighton continue to hold out on these options (and hold out for exempt tournaments such as the Old Spice Classic) if the Bluejays can’t capitalize on the opportunities they do get to beat teams from BCS leagues? How many times can a team say “they won’t play us because they’re afraid we will beat them” if you don’t beat them?
How much can coaches, their players, or their fans learn about a team watching it compete against the Florida A&Ms and Houston Baptists of the world? Stinnett and the rest of the Bluejays might look like world beaters against these schools, but if those aren’t the schools CU is trying to be compared to, then what does it matter? Moral victories don’t matter anymore, especially because Creighton strives to be mentioned in the same breath as Xavier and Gonzaga and Butler, etc.
Well, Xavier has destroyed us the past two times we’ve played them. That’s the reality. So is this: Creighton has a long way to go, and a daunting schedule against which to improve in the next month. Another reality? Some fans’ patience is running thin.