The line on Sunday night’s game was 10, which to a lot of folks seemed ridiculous. It turned out to be, but not in the way most figured — it was way too low. Creighton turned in perhaps their most complete performance of the year, recorded their largest margin of victory in the Greg McDermott Era, and in the process, all but assured themselves of avoiding the Thursday play-in round (they now have a mere 1% chance of falling into that abyss, which is a bet even the most pessimistic wouldn’t take).
A national TV audience (ESPNU might be the red-headed stepchild of the Worldwide Leader in terms of market penetration, but still, it is a national cable outlet) saw what Creighton is capable of when their wings play well for an entire game — they won going away. If they play like this next week, winning in Wichita next week is possible. Heck, if they play like this in three weeks in St. Louis, winning three straight is possible. Of course, when their wings don’t play well, the Jays are an average (mediocre?) team, and its impossible to know from one night to the next which version will show up — so while capable of winning in those places, it would be dubious to count on it.
Here’s what we do know: when Jahenns Manigat, Josh Jones and others are hitting shots, pushing the tempo and keeping defenses honest, it becomes that much more difficult to guard the Jays interior players. That was evident on Sunday, as there were multiple occasions where Gregory Echenique and Kenny Lawson caught the ball on the block and were able to score against just one defender. When the Jays’ wings are struggling, the post gets double teamed every possession, and those easy baskets in the paint become tough — or non-existent. David Kaplan, the excellent ESPNU analyst, pointed out time after time during the telecast that the Salukis were unable to double team the post because they had to stay on the Jays’ wing players, and he was absolutely correct in his assessment.
Inconsistent wing play was one of — if not the biggest — concern coming into the season, and it has remained so.
Part of that maddening inconsistency can be traced to the play of their four seniors — its expected that freshmen will have ups and downs (well, except for the superhuman Doug McDermott, that is), and thus, most teams look to their seniors to lead the way. On Sunday night, as has been the case in most of their big wins this year, it was the young players leading the way. 48 of the Jays’ 69 points came from Jahenns Manigat, Doug McDermott, Josh Jones and Gregory Echenique — two freshmen and two sophomores. Just 14 of the Jays’ 69 points came from the four seniors. Rebounding was the same story; of their 37 boards, 24 went to the above mentioned underclassmen, and 10 went to the seniors, with Kenny Lawson grabbing just 3.
Doug McDermott’s clockwork-like consistency has spoiled us a little bit as fans, I think — most freshmen struggle with inconsistency early in their careers. When your best players are your youngest players, as a team you’re going to have ups and downs. That’s certainly been the case this year. When they’re good, they’re very good; when they’re struggling, they’re not very good. Sometimes it depends on the half, sometimes it depends on the possession. But there’s little doubt in my mind that leaning on youth has caused them to be inconsistent as a team.
One of the side effects of that youth has been an inability to put teams away. Whether it was against Idaho State or against Indiana State, the Jays have made every game interesting, no matter how big of a lead they had. While the 2010-11 Salukis absolutely cannot be confused with the Salukis of earlier this decade, the fact that the Jays built a lead, then increased that lead, and then stepped on the gas pedal to blow them out was encouraging. Better late than never.
In 2005, the Jays entered a game against Wichita State on February 16 with a record of 15-10 and 7-7 in the MVC. They were staring an ugly BracketBusters opponent, UT-Chattanooga, in the eye that coming weekend due to their lackluster play to that point, and had not won back-to-back games for nearly six weeks. They blew out the Shockers 82-66 that night, and didn’t lose another game until dropping a 63-61 heartbreaker to West Virginia in the NCAA Tournament a month later. That win over the Shockers was the start of an eight-game winning streak — something which seemed completely unfathomable before it actually happened — and the momentum carried them to three straight wins in St. Louis. That team was saddled the “inconsistent” label, too, until they weren’t.
If this team were to win out, they would have the exact same record as that 2004-05 team: 23-11 and 11-7 in the MVC. In a span of four weeks, that group went from a frustrating bunch to one of the more beloved teams of the Altman Era, as Johnny Mathies emerged as a serious offensive weapon, Anthony Tolliver finally began to figure things out, and Nate Funk continued his stellar consistent play while role players like Jimmy Motz, Jeffrey Day and Kellen Miliner took turns in the spotlight.
In the span of four weeks, this team could go from a frustrating bunch to the first NCAA team of the McDermott Era. They’ve shown they can compete with every team in the Valley; when they play like they did on Sunday night, they can beat any team in the Valley.
Likely? Not really. Then again, in mid-February of 2005, it wasn’t very likely either, and look how that ended.
You bet.