Creighton went 0-8 in their first eight Big East games this year, and have alternated wins and losses over the next eight to sit at 4-12 in the league entering a two-game homestand that ends the regular season. A big reason for the turnaround (maybe the biggest)? The improved play of senior guard Austin Chatman. In those first eight conference games, he averaged 5.9 points per game on 23.8% shooting, including a dreadful 13.8% from three-point range, and scored no more than 11 points in any game.
In the last eight games Chatman has averaged 11.5 points per game on 38.8% shooting from the floor and 35.9% from three-point range. The improvement reached a crescendo on Saturday, as Chatman had 23 points and a career-high five three-point baskets at Seton Hall, while also grabbing three steals to tie his career high. It was the fifth time in the past eight games that he’s finished in double-figures, helping the Jays go 4-4 over that span.
The Bluejays continuing that alternating pattern of wins and losses would mean an upset of the fourth-ranked team in the country tonight — a Villanova team that is 27-2 overall and has already clinched a second straight Big East Conference regular-season title with its 14-2 league mark.
The Wildcats are riding a 10-game winning streak, with their last loss coming to Georgetown on January 19. They do a significant amount of their damage offensively from behind the three-point line, as they lead the Big East in 3-point field goal percentage, making 41.2% of their shots from long range. In 16 conference games this year, they’ve made 10 or more three-pointers 11 times — and they’ve done it in seven of their last eight games, including Saturday’s win over Xavier where they made 13 of them.
They have six players who average between 8.9 and 14.4 points per game, a group led by Darrun Hilliard. Hilliard leads the team with 64 three-pointers, with nearly 10% of them coming against the Jays as he was 6-10 from behind the arc in the teams’ first meeting. He’s made 39.5% for the season, and has three games in conference play with six or more treys — including a season-high eight at Butler on February 14. It probably doesn’t bode well for the Jays that he’s coming off his worst shooting performance of the conference season over the weekend, as he was 0-5 from three-point range and scored just six points, snapping a streak of nine straight games where he’d scored in double figures.
Second on the team in scoring is guard Ryan Arcidiacono, who averages 10.4 points and 3.7 assists per game. The junior guard scored 12 of his 15 points in the second half of the win at Xavier over the weekend, keying their rally from a 40-33 halftime deficit. Joining him in the backcourt is Dylan Ennis, who averages 9.2 points and 3.5 assists per game. Against Xavier, Ennis scored 16 points, including four 3-pointers, to go with five rebounds and a couple of highlight worthy blocked shots, and while the rest of his teammates struggled, he kept them afloat by scoring 14 of those 16 points in the first half. He’s scored in double figures in three of his last four games and has led Villanova in scoring seven times this season, including Saturday. He also has 101 assists with just 50 turnovers for the season.
Forward JayVaughn Pinkston is third on the team in scoring and second in rebounding, at 9.9 and 5.7 per game, respectively. Since scoring 25 points against Syracuse in mid-December on 9-19 shooting, he’s attempted more than 10 shots just twice more, has had nearly as many games scoring in single digits (8) as he has in double digits (10), and the most he’s scored in any game is 16. Defenses have keyed on stopping him, and with so many weapons around him, the Wildcats haven’t skipped a beat.
The fourth of their Big Four is Daniel Ochefu (8.9 ppg., 8.3 rpg., 1.1 bpg.), who’s fourth on the team in scoring, and leads the team in both rebounding and blocks. He’s been an absolute monster on the glass, grabbing 12 boards in a game twice (at Depaul, vs Seton Hall), 13 at St. John’s, and 24 — yes, TWENTY FOUR — at Seton Hall. That he grabbed “only” eight boards against Creighton in January is therefore a success!
Not much has slowed Villanova down this year, and now that they’ve secured the Big East regular season title, they’re playing for a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. For the Jays to win, they’ll need to keep the game close and the crowd engaged, and hope for a break or two at the end. Since they’ve proven so adept at doing that, and this team doesn’t possess the offensive fireworks that the Bluejays used to win handily twice a year ago, this is one of the few times in the Qwest/CenturyLink Center Era where it’s hard to even envision a scenario where the Jays win.
Quick Notes on the Wildcats:
- Villanova defeated Xavier 78-66 Saturday to secure its second consecutive outright Big East regular season title. This marks only the second time in program history that VU has won conference regular season championships in consecutive seasons (1981-82 and 1982-83) and the first time both titles were won outright, as the 1983 crown was shared with St. John’s and Boston College.
- This is one of just four Villanova teams to win 27 or more games in a season. All four of those instances have come in the last decade: 2005-06 (28-5), 2008-09 (30-8), 2013-14 (29-5) and 2014-15 (27-2).
Bluejay Bytes:
- Saturday’s setback at Seton Hall was Creighton’s third straight game between the Pirates and Bluejays decided by exactly one point. By comparison, Creighton and Villanova have played three straight games decided by 21 points or more, and the six all-time meetings have each been decided by 18 points or more.
- Creighton finished Saturday’s game at Seton Hall with 10 steals. Not only was it a season-high, but it was the most since opening the 2013-14 season with 12 thefts against Alcorn State.
- Creighton can finish no higher than a tie for seventh place in the Big East standings, and no better than the eighth seed. The Bluejays are two games behind Seton Hall (and lose the tiebreaker), 1.5 games behind DePaul, and one game ahead of Marquette.
The Series:
Villanova leads the all-time series with Creighton, 4-2. The Wildcats won the first three meetings with Creighton, all prior to 1952, before Creighton picked up a pair of lopsided victories last season. Greg McDermott is 2-1 against Villanova and Jay Wright. Wright is 1-2 versus Creighton.
The Last Time They Played:
Villanova jumped out to a 15-0 lead on January 25 in Philadelphia, and was never really challenged the rest of the way, coasting to a 71-50 win. Creighton outrebounded Villanova 40-27, including 13-7 on the offensive glass, but more than gave away that possession advantage by turning it over 19 times. Villanova scored 21 points off of those 19 turnovers…not coincidentally winning by 21.
What the Other Side is Saying:
“In order to avoid an upset, Villanova must lock down the perimeter. The Wildcats defended the potent perimeter play of Xavier last Saturday, but Creighton’s emphasis on the long-ball will make this a stiff challenge.
…
The Wildcats may have to play a team that features this perimeter style of play in the NCAA Tournament. We all know the high-seeds who play a bit like Creighton; perhaps Wisconsin comes to mind as the closest comparison. Some lower seeds, however, that Villanova could face in the first or second rounds feature this style of play, such as the A10’s Davidson or Iona from the MAAC. It would behoove the Wildcats to practice locking down a perimeter-oriented team such as Creighton to prepare for tournament time.”
Villanova vs. Creighton: 3 things to consider, VUHoops.com
This Date in Creighton Hoops History:
On March 3, 2003, Creighton beat Wichita State 86-60 in the final game played at the Civic. The Jays held a 34-24 lead, then used an 18-6 run over the first eight minutes of the second half — in the span of 90 seconds, Korver hit two threes, House hit another and added an old-fashioned three-point play, surrounded by turnovers on three consecutive possessions by Wichita State as the press and the crowd noise broke their spirit. That highlight package in the Bluejay Rewind linked above is so, so much fun to watch.
Completely Random, Totally Rad Music Video of the Day:
The Bottom Line:
In order for Creighton to pull the upset, they probably need ‘Nova to be looking past the game due to a hangover from clinching the league/playing one of the league’s worst teams, they need ‘Nova to shoot worse than they’ve shot all year, and the Jays need their best shooting performance of the year, and they need to rebound like they did in Philadelphia while not turning it over like they did in Philadelphia. In short, they need to play 40 minutes of basketball as good as the 15 minutes of great basketball they played to beat Oklahoma. Is that possible? Anything is possible, I guess. I wouldn’t count on it, though.
Villanova 77, Creighton 61