On paper, Creighton’s matchup tonight with the 24th ranked Panthers looks like less like a matchup than a mismatch. The disappointing Jays stagger in at 13-13 overall, 8-7 in the league, and fresh off a home loss to Illinois State in which they failed to even get a potential game-winning shot off on the last possession. Meanwhile, Northern Iowa is 22-3 overall, 13-2 in the league, and can clinch the outright conference championship with a win. Oddsmakers have pegged the Panthers as four-possession favorites, which is the largest such spread the Jays have faced in MVC play in recent memory.
Oh, but did you hear? 7’0″ beast Jordan Eglseder, their second-leading scorer and leading rebounder, has been suspended for the next three games after a drunk driving arrest. Surely that gives the Jays a chance? Well, I don’t know about that, but it does mean we’ll be spared the grotesque sight of 6’6″ Wayne Runnels trying valiently to play post defense against Eglseder. I haven’t seen a size mismatch like that since the SIU game in Omaha in 2007 when Dane Watts and Anthony Tolliver both fouled out, leaving Pierce Hibma to play against Randal Falker.
Predictably, the national media, who’s been looking for a reason to dismiss Northern Iowa, has pounced on the Eglseder story. The most common argument is typified by this piece on ESPN.com — that Kansas suspended Brady Morningstar for an entire semester for his DUI arrest in the fall. I’ve yet to read or hear one of these national media pundits mention that the University’s policy clearly states what the punishment shall be in such a situation: 10% of the team’s games. Given the 30-game schedule that UNI played this year, three games is the punishment. But it would be too easy to look up the facts. That would get in the way of a good story and the chance to sully the name of an underdog who might take an at-large bid from a BCS league next month.
They’re the type of team that could do damage in March, too: a space-eating post player, battle-tested guards, good three-point shooters and a solid coaching staff. Frankly, this is the part of the story I’m surprised national media hasn’t chosen to focus on. A three-game suspension might not seem like a lot to them, but a loss in any of those three games could torpedo UNI’s at-large chances. So in reality, a three-game suspension at this particular point of the season is a massive, massive punishment. Much moreso than Kansas suspending one of their dozen (estimated) McDonald’s All-Americans for the fall semester.
Losing to any of their opponents during Eglseder’s suspension would hurt UNI much, much more than even two or three December losses would to Kansas. Creighton is 126 in the RPI — that’s a borderline bad loss, especially at home. Old Dominion, their Bracket Buster foe out of the CAA, has an RPI of 34 and is one of their prime competitors for a mid major at-large; losing the head-to-head matchup could be deadly should it come down to those two on Selection Sunday. And Evansville goes without saying; they’re one of the worst teams in America statistically at 267 in the RPI, but they ruined Wichita State’s season last week by upsetting them. Imagine if they did the same to UNI? Eglseder will be back for the Illinois State game to end the season, but losing to them, even with an RPI of 99, could be deadly.
As for tonight’s matchup, Northern Iowa is a superior team to the Jays in pretty much any facet of the game you want to analyze. They shoot better both from the field and from behind the arc. They outrebound their opponents by an average of 4 boards a game, compared to the Jays who have scratched and clawed merely to be even on the glass. They play better defense, giving up fewer points and holding opponents to a lower shooting percentage — they’re second in the NATION defensively, to be precise, with only Princeton giving up fewer points per game. They turn the ball over less. They dish out more assists. Most importantly, they’re 11-0 at home and their only losses are to DePaul on a neutral floor and on the road at Wichita State and Bradley.
The one thing Creighton has going for it is that they have recently played the role of spoiler to UNI. What Illinois State has been to the Jays, Creighton has been to the Panthers. A win tonight doesn’t do a heckuva lot for the Jays season, but it would cripple the Panthers. Maybe that’s enough motivation for the team to pull the upset.
One Big Paragraph with Lots O’Dots™: Northern Iowa is 22-3 this season and has already clinched at least a share of the MVC regular-season title with a 13-2 league mark … UNI will enter Tuesday’s game ranked No. 24 in the ESPN/USA Today Coaches’ Poll … The Panthers have won 12 straight games in the McLeod Center and are a perfect 11-0 at home this season, where they average 5,380 fans per game … The 12-game win streak is tied for the nation’s 15th-best current home win streak. In the Division I era at UNI, the record for consecutive home wins is 14 set in the 1988-89 season. The Panthers won 20 in a row from 1961-65 to set the school record for consecutive home wins … UNI has won 20 games in a row for the second consecutive season and seventh time in school history. The school record for wins in a season is 23 – set four times in 1963-64, 1989-90, 2005-06 and 2008-09 … UNI has assured itself of at least a share of back-to-back Missouri Valley Conference regular season titles after knocking off Drake on Feb. 10, 57-48. A victory tonight would give the Panthers their first outright MVC regular season title in school history … UNI is the first league school to repeat as regular season conference champions since Southern Illinois took four in a row from 2001-02 through 2004-05 … UNI is ranked No. 2 in the nation in scoring defense. The Panthers are giving up 55.2 points per game this season and trail only Princeton (52.9). Only one of its last 12 opponents has scored more than 60 points, and only one team has reached 70 points this year against the Panthers … UNI boasts a veteran squad that features three double-figure scorers, with Preseason all-Valley selection Adam Koch (12.6 ppg.) headlining that group along with Eglseder and point guard Kwadzo Ahelegbe, who averages 11.1 points per game and leads the team with 68 assists … UNI averages 63.6 points per game and shoots 43.8 percent from the floor, 34.4 percent from downtown and 73.9 percent at the line. It outrebounds teams by an average of 3.8 caroms per contest and commits just 10.9 turnovers per game.
The Last Time They Played: The defending MVC regular-season co-champs and the current season favorites in the league’s preseason poll matched up in the league opener for the first time in 20 years. Creighton came out of the gates ice-cold, making just one of its first 16 shots from the floor while falling behind 13-2, including a 9:10 span between field goals from Antoine Young. The Jays battled back to take a second half lead, but the Panthers used an 8-0 run late to seal the 60-52 victory.
The Series: Creighton leads the all-time series with Northern Iowa by a 26-13 count, which includes a 9-6 mark in Cedar Falls. However, the teams split their 12 matchups in the unique environs of the UNI-Dome, while the Jays have gone 3-0 in Cedar Falls since the move across the sidewalk to the McLeod Center.
The road team has won each of the last three meetings in the series, and the Jays have won each of their last five trips to Cedar Falls. Even better, Creighton has won 10 of the last 12 and 21 of the last 26 meetings. Eight of the last 11 contests have been decided by nine points or less. And, Dana Altman is 23-9 against UNI and 5-2 against Ben Jacobson.
Like I wrote in the opening stanzas of this post, Creighton has been the thorn in UNI’s side for a long, long time.
Completely Unrelated Rant: Remind me again: are the Olympics a sport? Because I’m having a hard time telling from NBC’s coverage. It seems like the plausibly-live coverage, dramatic fluff pieces and in-studio segments are a greater percentage of their production than in the past. I mean, last night they showed a profile about polar bears for ten minutes in the middle of the primetime coverage. Polar Bears! I was home for lunch yesterday and turned on the TV knowing that there were dozens of events going on, and six NBC networks on broadcast and cable showing stuff. Five of them were not showing Olympic coverage. The one that was had cross-country skiing on, and not even good cross-country skiing — the kind with staggered start times so you can’t tell where anyone is in relation to the others. I understand the concept of plausibly live when the games are in an uncooperative time zone. But Vancouver? Really?
The Totally Random Song I’d Play Right Now if I was Still a Radio DJ: The Biz Never Sleeps.
Biz Markie covering “Bennie and the Jets” is just all kinds of rad. He’s bad on purpose, which makes it great.
The Pick: Northern Iowa clinches their second-straight MVC title tonight, becoming the first school to win back-to-back titles since Southern Illinois in 2005. I’ve gone back and forth on that, though, because the loss of Eglseder could potentially allow Kenny Lawson to have a big game. Is that enough, though? I don’t think so. But it will be a little closer than the oddsmakers think.
UNI 69, Creighton 62