[dropcap]Saturday[/dropcap] afternoon, an extremely banged-up Creighton Bluejay squad takes on fifth-ranked Xavier in the season finale, which will be televised nationally on FOX (not FS1 — regular, over-the-air network FOX). The list of Jays gutting out the remainder of the season with an injury grew by one very big number on Wednesday night, as Mo Watson suffered a pulled groin and was severely limited afterward. He did not practice on Thursday, but made it through the full practice Friday and is expected to start Saturday.
So he’ll play, but how good will he be? Anything less than a fully effective Watson and Creighton’s chances of pulling off what is already a completely unexpected upset drop to somewhere south of zero. Malik Albert acquitted himself nicely in his biggest minutes of the year following Watson’s injury Wednesday night, but expecting him to go into a rowdy Cintas Center and run the point for the entire game seems foolhardy.
The Jays are currently in a three-way tie for fourth, and can finish anywhere from fourth through sixth place in the Big East. If they beat Xavier and Providence loses at St. John’s, the Bluejays would be the four seed and play the winner of Saturday’s Butler/Marquette game. If they beat Xavier and Providence also wins, the Bluejays would be the five seed and play Providence. If they lose, they’re the six-seed regardless of what anyone else does, and would play Seton Hall.
The latter is the most likely scenario, as the Jays are walking into a bit of a proverbial hornet’s nest on Saturday. Not only did they upset Xavier less than a month ago, the Musketeers are coming off a loss to Seton Hall that they’ve had a week to think about, AND it’s Senior Day for three players who’ve been big contributors to their program. In other words, one of the big ways for a massive underdog to pull off an upset — catching the favorite off guard — isn’t going to happen.
So, if there’s a chance, it lies in Xavier’s 1-3-1 zone, it’s propensity for allowing wide-open looks from the corners, and in their inability to keep quick shifty guards from penetrating. The Jays got those looks against the 1-3-1 in Omaha and made just enough of them to win, but will they on the road? 17 Big East games where they mostly haven’t says no, they can’t. And if Mo Watson isn’t as quick as he normally is, can he still make the same plays — and shots — he did in that first meeting? We’ll have to wait until gametime to know the answer to that one. In any event, our friends at Banners On The Parkway wrote this tremendous analysis after the Creighton win against X, breaking down why Xavier’s 1-3-1 failed them in that game.
Of course, even if the Jays do manage to get those open looks against the zone and knock them down, there’s also the tiny little problem that they’re playing fifth-ranked Xavier, who played by far their worst game of the season in Omaha and were still in the game. The Musketeers’ offense logged just .76 points per possession, and Mo Watson shredded their defense to the tune of 32 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assists. Meanwhile, Trevon Bluiett, Remy Abell, Myles Davis, and Edmond Sumner shot a combined 4-31 from the floor, scoring 14 points. As a team they were 1-21 from three-point range and 13-20 from the line.
That’s highly unlikely to happen a second time, even if Creighton plays similarly well defensively. Xavier has four players with double-figure scoring averages and two more that average 9.5 points or more. Bluiett (ninth in the Big East at 15.1 ppg.) leads the way followed by Sumner (11.3 ppg.), Davis (10.9 ppg.), senior James Farr (10.3 ppg.), sophomore J.P. Macura (9.7 ppg.) and junior Jalen Reynolds (9.5 ppg.).
With that many scorers, it’s no surprise that seven different Xavier players have led XU in scoring at least twice this season: Bluiett (15 times), Reynolds (4), Sumner (5), Davis (3), Farr (3), Macura (2), and senior Remy Abell (2).
They’re one of the best rebounding teams in the country, leading the league and is ranking 16th in D1 in rebound margin at +7.8 rpg. Xavier has outrebounded 25 opponents and tied one in 29 games this season. Of the three times they’ve lost the rebounding battle (Georgetown on January 19, Marquette on February 6 and Seton Hall on February 28), XU outrebounded those three teams in the other meeting. Creighton managed to stay relatively even with them on the boards in Omaha, losing the battle just 46-44, although Xavier did double up on them 16-8 on offensive boards.
Quick Notes on the Musketeers:
- Xavier is 23-0 this season when leading at the half and 23-0 when shooting at least 40 percent. Xavier has won 16 games this season by double figures. All 29 of Xavier’s games have been decided by at least seven points.
- Xavier leads the Big East Conference in rebound margin (16th in the nation at +7.8 rpg.) and is second in the league in four other major categories: scoring offense (23rd in the nation at 80.4 ppg.), assists (31st in the nation at 16.1 apg.), scoring margin (26th in the nation at +10.7 ppg.) and 3-point field goal percentage (.356).
- Xavier has hit 555-of-756 from the free-throw line for 73.4 percent (third in the Big East and 43rd in the nation), including a 93.5 percent effort (29-of-31) at Georgetown on February 20. Xavier has made almost as many free throws (555) as its opponents have attempted (562). Creighton managed to beat them at their own game, so to speak, in Omaha; XU was 13-20 from the line, while CU was 19-26.
Bluejay Bytes:
- James Milliken scored a career-high 26 points on Wednesday at Providence, and he’s now averaged 22.5 points per game in the past week. Milliken has scored in double-figures in all five career games he’s played during the month of March during his Creighton career, averaging 18.8 points per game in that span. Milliken is also 18-for-29 (62.1 percent) from three-point range in March during his career.
- Maurice Watson Jr. owns 194 assists this winter, a figure that already ranks fifth in program history for a single season. He’s one shy of matching Antoine Young for fourth place, and six shy of becoming the fourth man to reach 200 helpers in one season. Watson is on pace to also pass Randy Eccker’s 205 (in 1976-77) and Grant Gibbs’ 210 (in 2012-13) and finish the season second on the all-time list. Ralph Bobik set the CU record with 252 in 1973-74, and that mark has never been approached.
- Creighton has gone .500 or better in league play 20 of the past 21 seasons (including 2015-16). Xavier has been .500 or better in 34 straight seasons, including 2015-16. That’s the nation’s longest active streak, five seasons longer than Murray State’s 29. The rest of the top-five consists of Kansas (27), Kentucky (27) and Gonzaga (25).
The Series:
Xavier owns an 11-10 lead in the series with Creighton, including a 6-5 mark in Cincinnati. The teams split a pair of meetings last season, with the road team winning each contest, and Creighton won last month in Omaha.
If CU wins on Saturday, they’ll become the first visiting team to ever beat Xavier three times at Cintas Center, and would also become just the third team to beat Xavier at Cintas Center in consecutive seasons.
The Last Time They Played:
Gratuitous Linkage:
SB Nation writes that Xavier is no longer an underdog, noting that only Louisville and Michigan State have been to the Sweet 16 more often than Xavier in the last eight years. The Musketeers’ five trips to the second weekend ties them with Arizona, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina and Wisconsin over that time frame. With that kind of success they were a major, big-time program even when they were in the A10, but now that they’re in the Big East there’s no longer any argument to be made to the contrary. They’ve done everything but make a Final Four, and this year’s team might be the one to finally check that box.
What the Other Side is Saying:
Banners on the Parkway lists these keys to a Xavier win: offensive rebounding, not shooting 1-21 from three-point range again, and getting through the game healthy. They’re locked into the two-seed regardless of the outcome, so that last key makes sense — Xavier’s almost certainly in the same place, both Big East Tournament-wise and NCAA-Tournament wise, win or lose, so keeping all their stars healthy is paramount.
As for offensive rebounding, they wrote this rather interesting nugget:
Seven of the Bluejays 12 losses have come when they allow opponents to get over that 25% season average they allow on the glass. While that doesn’t seem terribly impressive, the Jays are only 6-6 when opponents get 29% of their misses. The more chances that Creighton allows on the offensive glass, the more likely they are to lose.
This Date in Creighton Hoops History:
On March 5, 2000, fourth-seeded Creighton beat the top seed Indiana State 71-69 in the semifinals of the MVC Tournament. The Jays ended the first half on a 14-0 run to take a 36-24 lead, then endured Sycamore runs of 17-0 and 7-0 in the second half to hold on for the win.
Indiana State cut the deficit to 68-66 after a three-point play by Nate Green with 44 seconds left, and then Matt West missed two free throws for the Jays to give ISU a chance to tie or take the lead. Green forced a pass inside, however, and Ben Walker was fouled immediately after securing the loose ball. He made both free throws to make it 70-66 Jays, but the game wasn’t over just yet. The Sycamores answered with a bucket and Walker, fouled again, made just one of two free throws. Up 71-68 with five seconds left, the Altman-Era Jays did something they almost never did — fouled when they were up three.
Freshman Terrell Taylor explained the play in the media room afterward: “Coach had a very good strategy on that particular play. He told me just to let them get it in, run a couple seconds off the clock and foul. I tried to go for the steal, but I tried to foul him at the same time.”
That strategy forced ISU to the line, where they made the first, missed the second intentionally, and then failed to secure the rebound. Livan Pyfrom tipped the ball out towards half-court and the clock expired, moving the Jays to the MVC finals. They’d go on to beat second-seeded SMS to claim their second-straight MVC tourney title the next night.
Completely Random, Totally Rad Music Video of the Day:
The Bottom Line:
To pull off the win, Creighton must:
- Get a shooting performance like they had at DePaul or against St. John’s at home, against a defense several notches better than those two teams
- Once again limit Xavier’s ability to score from outside, though holding them anywhere close to the 1-21 they shot in Omaha is unrealistic and borderline impossible
- Crash the boards, especially the offensive glass. The Bluejays stayed even with Xavier, 46-44, overall in Omaha but gave up 16 offensive rebounds which led to 22 second-chance points — in other words, nearly 30% of Xavier’s points came on second opportunities
- Limit Xavier’s chances from the free throw line. The Musketeers have made more FT’s than their opponents have attempted, and in the first meeting, the Jays flipped the script on them. As with every road team, CU can’t expect to get borderline calls, but they need to keep Xavier from rolling up a significant edge in points from the line.
I don’t think the Jays will get embarrassed as some do, but a double-digit loss is probably in the offing.
#5 Xavier 79, Creighton 68