When last we saw Long Beach State, the 49ers were in the midst of a season where they played the toughest non-conference slate in the country — I called it the “Godzilla of non-conference schedules” at the time — as they tried to stay in the NCAA Tournament at-large discussion despite playing in a low-major conference.
Dan Monson’s team is once again playing as many top-shelf opponents as he can get on the schedule, going anywhere, anytime to get competitive games. They’ve already played (and lost) at #5 Arizona, at Kansas State, at Washington, vs #14 Michigan and #10 VCU in the Puerto Rico Tipoff, and a second game against Kansas State in Puerto Rico. Still to come: tonight’s game against Creighton, road games at NC State and Missouri, and a home game with USC.
If the 2011-12 schedule was Godzilla, this is a close second. Holy crap, Dan Monson.
Of course, scheduling like a madman only works if you can actually win a fair share of the games. In 2011-12, they went 3-4 against a similar slate, and parlayed it into a NCAA Tourney berth. This year, they’re 0-6 so far against top-tier opponents, with a loss to Loyola-Marymount to boot. Their only win came in one of just two home games they’ve had so far, a season-opening victory over Hawaii-Pacific.
Gone are star players like Casper Ware, Larry Anderson and T.J. Robinson, who all played key roles on that 2011-12 squad that lost at the buzzer to Creighton in Omaha and fell in the first round of the NCAA Tournament to New Mexico. There’s still some very talented players on the 49ers roster, however, including preseason All-Big West pick Mike Caffey, who played 26 minutes in these teams’ previous meeting, scoring five points with four assists.
This year, he averages 16.6 points, 4.5 assists and 2.0 steals per game. He’s led them in scoring in five of their eight games, and scored 28 in their double-overtime loss at Washington. A quick, athletic point guard, Caffey has shown the ability to score both at the rim and with a jumper. He’s definitely a shoot-first point guard, though — Caffey has attempted 117 shots in eight games, the exact same number as Doug McDermott, and 46 more than his next-closest teammate — and has committed nearly as many turnovers (33) as he’s dished out assists (36).
Caffey takes a ton of shots, but isn’t the most efficient scorer around; he connects at a 41% clip from the floor and 36% from three-point range, which are good but not terrific percentages for a guy that shoots as much as he does. Further complicating matters, he makes just 56% of his free throws, which is — how can I put this nicely — TERRIBLE for a point guard, i.e. the player you want handling the ball late in a close game. One need look no further than his two killer misses at the charity stripe in the first overtime of their loss to Washington for evidence of that. Strangely for a shoot-first point guard, he also doesn’t draw a ton of fouls, having attempted just 39 free throws in eight games, for an average of only 4.8 a game.
Senior Dan Jennings is second on the team in scoring, averaging 12.4 points and 8.9 rebounds a game. The 6’9″, 245 pound forward converts 60% of his shots from the field, but his atrocious free throw shooting has caused teams to occasionally employ a “Hack-a-Shaq” (or in his case, Hack-a-Dan?) defense to slow him down, as he makes south of 39% from the stripe — 13-33 to be exact. That said, he’s an excellent rebounder, grabbing double-digit boards three times, including a Paul Silas-esque 17 against Hawaii-Pacific.
Given Creighton’s struggles on the glass, particularly over the weekend, that has to be concerning. Long Beach State isn’t a great-shooting team, percentage wise (they shoot 39.7% from the floor, 27.7% from three-point range and 56.8% at the line), and has arguably shot themselves out of several games, but if they consistently get second or third chances, their percentages will undoubtably go up.
The guess here is that the Jays will play the percentages, and let Long Beach jack up threes all night long so that they can crash the paint and grab their share of the inevitable rebounds, since the 49ers miss three of every four treys they attempt, and six of every ten field goals overall. If the percentages hold true, there will be lots of missed shots, and hopefully lots of fastbreak opportunities for the Jays if they can secure the rebound.
Is that a good strategy? Here’s their three-point totals through eight games:
vs Hawaii-Pacific … 6-27
at Arizona … 5-23
vs Loyola-Marymount … 3-16
at Kansas State … 6-21
vs Michigan … 8-22
vs VCU … 7-19
vs Kansas State … 5-23
vs Washington … 6-15
Yeah, I think it’s a good strategy.
About the 49ers: Long Beach State’s strength of schedule is ranked No. 8 SOS by kenpom.com … Mike Caffey set a career high with 28 points against Washington, and was just shy of a double-double by tying a career-high with nine assists against the Huskies … Caffey and Dan Jennings each scored over 20 points Saturday at Washington, and the pair has scored in double-figures together in five of eight games this season … After scoring 12 points against Loyola Marymount, junior A.J. Spencer has secured a spot in the starting lineup, scoring in double-figures in five of the last six games, including a career high 14 points against VCU, and is third on the team with an 8.6 ppg average … Branford Jones was placed into the starting lineup as an extra ball-handler against VCU, and responded with a breakout game, scoring 19 points in 37 minutes with just one turnover against VCU’s havoc defense. He currently ranks fourth on the team in scoring, averaging 8.6 points per game and is second on the team with 17 assists … The 49ers’ seven-game skid is the longest since the 2007-08 season; Long Beach State lost the final eight games of Monson’s first campaign, and dropped the first two the next season in a 10-game losing streak over two years … The 49ers have lost all three games that the team has shot over 50% thus far in the season.
One Big Paragraph with Lots O’Dots™: Creighton has won five of its last seven men’s basketball games against teams from the state of California, including road wins at California (Dec. 2012) and at San Diego State (Nov. 2011) in addition to a neutral-site win over a Paul George-led Fresno State team (Dec. 2008) … Ethan Wragge played a career-high 30 minutes in Sunday’s game vs. George Washington, and came away with a career-best nine rebounds to show for it … Wragge had 15 points vs. San Diego State and 16 more vs. George Washington, marking the first time in his career he’d posted back-to-back games with 15 or more points, and incredibly, made him the first Bluejay reserve with consecutive games of 15+ points since Cavel Witter on Dec. 22 & 29, 2009 … Tonight marks the Bluejays’ fourth straight road game; they haven’t played four straight regular-season games away from home since 2006-07, when CU played at Fresno State on its way to three games in Hawaii.
The RUN-DMD Show: Doug McDermott was held to fewer than 10 points for just the third time in the last three seasons when George Washington limited him to seven points on Sunday. McDermott scored in double-figures in all 35 games as a sophomore, in 34-of-36 contests as a junior, and now 6-of-7 contests this year.
In the two games that followed McDermott’s single-digit outings last season, he had 20 first half points vs. Presbyterian (after 5 points vs. UAB) and he had 17 first half points vs. Illinois State (after 8 points at Indiana State). He would finish with 24 points in both contests.
McDermott has never had back-to-back games in single-digits in his 117 game career, reaching 10 or more points all but 10 times.
The Last Time They Played: On Feburary 18, 2012, Creighton beat Long Beach State 81-79 on a buzzer-beater by Antoine Young that capped a game-ending 6-0 run. McDermott had a monster game, scoring 36 points with 11 rebounds, as the Jays won a thrilling BracketBuster game. You should probably just go watch the highlight reel, though.
The Series: Creighton leads 4-1, including a 1-1 mark in Long Beach (a 99-93 win in December of 1963, and a 68-51 loss in January of 1973).
Coach Greg McDermott is 1-0 against Long Beach State and Dan Monson, and owns a 3-1 career record against the current teams in the Big West Conference, with wins over Long Beach State, UC Davis and UC Riverside and a loss to Hawai’i.
Gratuitous Linkage: Long Beach State has won the Big West three straight years, but is picked just fourth this year. Part of the reason is because two starters from last year’s team, along with one of their better contributors off the bench, were kicked off the team by Dan Monson following their NIT loss last spring. Bruce Pascoe of the Arizona Daily Star wrote a feature before their game with Arizona on the reasons why Monson made the move.
This Date in Creighton Hoops History: On December 3, 2003, the Jays defeated Bethune-Cookman 69-49 to win their 20th straight home game. A 19-0 run midway through the first half was fueled by 12 points from Brody Deren, who made all five of his shots in that opening stanza. The Bluejay defense held the Wildcats scoreless for an incredible 13 straight possessions during that stretch, including eight turnovers.
Completely Random, Totally Rad Music Video of the Day: In honor of Dan Monson’s insane scheduling philosophy.
The Bottom Line: Creighton bounces back, and picks up a nice road win.
Jays 79, Long Beach State 63