[dropcap]Creighton[/dropcap] has won 12 of the last 15 meetings in this in-state rivalry, and you’d have to go back to the mid-nineties to find the last time Jays fans were this pessimistic heading into a battle with Nebraska. The prevailing notion seems to be that their chances are slim — the Huskers have a good team, their fans are smelling blood in the water in this rivalry that has been tipped against them for a generation, and the Bluejays are coming off three consecutive uninspiring performances, including an ugly loss at Tulsa.
To be sure, the Huskers are formidable and the venue will be rowdy. But they’re not indestructible.
All five starters return from a year ago, led by junior Terran Petteway, who averages 21.0 points and 5.5 rebounds a game, both marks improved over his already-terrific numbers a year ago (18.1 and 4.8). The 6’6″ Petteway is great at slashing to the rim, scoring in transition, and at the free throw line, but if you can take away his driving lanes, you can neutralize his effectiveness because he’s an average, at best, shooter from outside the paint.
His jump shot leaves a lot to be desired (just 34% from three and 41% overall), and his assist-to-turnover ratio of negative-.6 can only be described as atrocious (15 assists to 25 turnovers). The latter is nothing new for Petteway; a year ago he was similarly loose with the basketball and posted a negative-.59 A/T ratio (52 assists and 88 turnovers). In short, he’s a great scorer, a good defender, and he’s careless with the ball. That’s not me being a hater; by either the eye test or the statistical test, he does an incredibly poor job of taking care of the basketball, especially for a player as talented in other areas as he is. For a player that isn’t a point guard to average over 4 turnovers a game is…really something.
By comparison, Creighton has played two more games than Nebraska up to this point, and has no one with as many turnovers as Petteway, and no one close to approaching a negative assist-to-turnover ratio. The erratic Devin Brooks has 20 turnovers (an average of 2.5 a game), but has 31 assists to go along with them, giving him a respectable 1.55 A/T ratio. No one else has more than 12 turnovers.
Petteway gets the headlines, but the better player of their Big Two in my opinion is Shavon Shields, who at 6’7″ is a similarly-sized wing and is just as dangerous offensively — except he’s more efficient, he has a better jump shot, he takes better care of the basketball, and has a far-less erratic personality. Shields is a more difficult player to stop, because even if you take away his driving lanes, he can still beat you with jumpers (60% from the field and 42% from three-point range). Actually, what’s interesting is that Shields has the exact same number of made field goals as Petteway — 40 — but he’s taken 30 fewer shots to make them. Shields is 40-66, and Petteway is 40-96.
Shields and Petteway combine to average 41 points a game, one of only two duos in the country averaging at least 20 points per game along with the Georgia State pair of R.J. Hunter and Ryan Harrow. They average nearly 55% of their teams’ points, as no one else on the team averages in double figures. That’s not to say they don’t have other capable players, however, as they do have four other players who average between 6.2 and 6.8 points per game.
The backcourt of Shields, Petteway, Benny Parker, and Tai Webster is strong. As it was a year ago, however, their post play is a major weakness. 6’10” junior Walter Pitchford is more of a stretch-four than a traditional post, and he does most of his damage away from the rim (he’s attempted the second-most threes on the team this year).
Fifth-year senior transfer Moses Abraham (who played for Georgetown when he was known as Moses Ayegba), a 6’9″, 247-pound veteran, was being touted as quality depth off the bench upon his signing this summer. Then Leslee Smith, a 6’8″, 254-pound senior who played almost 17 minutes a game as one of Nebraska’s top reserves a year ago, tore his ACL in July. Smith was one of the Huskers best rebounders, particularly on the offensive glass, where he snared a team-high 59 boards (nearly two per game).
With Smith’s loss, Abraham will have to shoulder a bigger load, and while so far he’s been a better player than the guy CU fans saw play for G’Town last year (0-1 shooting, two turnovers, five fouls, four rebounds and a block in 22 minutes) he’s not a difference maker offensively — he’s a bit of a liability, with as many turnovers (7) as field goals (7). He has done a nice job on the glass, averaging the second most rebounds on the team with 5.5 per game, but he’s not the guy to keep defenses honest and help open things up for Shields and Petteway.
Which brings us back to the question at the start of the Primer: is it really that hopeless Sunday night? KenPom gives the Jays just a 30% chance of winning, meaning according to his advanced metrics, there’s only three games on their schedule with worse odds of victory — at Villanova, at Georgetown, and at Butler. That’s not good. So how do the Jays get out of Lincoln with a win?
First and foremost, they have to shoot the ball better. No defensive plan in the world will make a difference if they have a 16-minute drought like they did against Middle Tennessee, or a ten-possession, 1-8 drought like they did at Tulsa. Repeats of those scenarios make everything else a moot point.
But provided they do shoot it better, there’s some things they’re very capable of doing that can give them a chance to win it.
They need to lock down Shields, which means Avery Dingman needs to shake off the rust he displayed in Florida and at Tulsa, and play the physical perimeter defense he played in Big East play last year to cut off his driving lanes and make him settle for jump shots — and then contest them. They need someone to hold Petteway in check; not so much to shut him down entirely, but just to make sure he doesn’t go off for 30+. Ricky Kreklow has the size, but is he up to the task? And finally, they need to keep an eye on Pitchford and make sure he doesn’t get hot from outside, which means one of the Jays’ quicker big men — Toby Hegner or Will Artino? — will need to chase him around the arc and make sure the shots he gets are tough, contested looks.
If they do those things defensively, and shoot the ball like they’re capable of, this will be a very competitive game.
About the Huskers: The Huskers are 5-1 on the season following a 70-65 win at Florida State on Monday where they built an 18-point second-half lead, only to withstand a furious Seminoles comeback in the final 10 minutes … Benny Parker has averaged 7.0 points per game over his last three starts, and he’s also averaging 2.3 assists and 2.3 steals per game in that stretch … The last time a Husker averaged at least 20 points per game was Tyronn Lue in 1998, and only six Husker players have averaged at least 20 ppg in a season — relevant because Shields and Petteway are both over that threshold so far this year.
One Big Paragraph with Lots O’Dots™: Greg McDermott is the only coach in Creighton history to win three of his first four games against Nebraska, and with a win on Sunday, McDermott can join Dana Altman as the only Creighton coaches to win four straight games over the Cornhuskers … Creighton has won six straight games against teams from the Big Ten, an eight-point win vs. Northwestern, three double-digit wins vs. Nebraska, and one double-digit victory each against Iowa and Wisconsin … CU’s only six men to play in four career wins over the Cornhuskers are Kyle Korver, Joe Dabbert, Mike Grimes, Michael Lindeman, Tyler McKinney and Ethan Wragge, and of those six, only Korver and McKinney never played in a loss against NU. With a win on Sunday, seniors Will Artino, Austin Chatman and Avery Dingman would join that group.
The Last Time They Played: Last December in Omaha, Creighton busted out to an 18-2 lead in the early moments of the game, built it up to a 38-8 lead later in the first half, and coasted to an 82-67 victory. Doug McDermott led Creighton with 33 points, while Ethan Wragge added 16 points and tied a career-high with nine rebounds.
Nebraska was led by 22 points from Shavon Shields while Terran Petteway had 21 points before fouling out following an infamous scrum with Grant Gibbs for a loose ball.
Seriously though, go back and read my account of that drubbing that I linked in the first sentence. It’s fun to relive that night.
The Series: The win last December was the Jays’ ninth straight regular-season win at home over the Huskers, and third straight overall in the series. The all-time series is 25-22 in favor of Nebraska, though if they hadn’t ducked the Jays during the 50s, 60s and 70s — a period of tremendous success for Creighton and relative mediocrity for Nebraska — the series would almost assuredly be tipped the other direction, perhaps significantly.
Nebraska owns a 16-6 edge in Lincoln all-time, but the Bluejays are 4-3 in their last seven trips to town. This will be the first meeting between the teams at Pinnacle Bank Arena, where the Huskers are have won 12 consecutive home games dating back to last January and are 19-1 all-time.
Gratuitous Linkage: While all the attention is on Shields and Petteway, and for good reason, it’s the Huskers freshman point guard Tarin Smith that could be a key Sunday night. The Lincoln Journal-Star’s Brian Rosenthal profiled the player who hit a clutch three-pointer in the final minute on Monday night, clinching a 70-65 road win at Florida State (and perhaps keeping the Huskers from blowing the game after leading by 18).
This Date in Creighton Hoops History: On December 7, 2002, Creighton moved to 6-0 thanks to a 74-64 win over BYU at the Civic. The Bluejays forced 23 turnovers, and had a 25-4 edge on points off turnovers, more than making up for a day where they didn’t shoot particularly well — Kyle Korver went 4-14 from three-point range, and the team was just 8-28 from downtown.
With the game tied at 40 midway early in the second half, Creighton used a 21-6 run to bust the game open. BYU’s 12 possessions during that nearly eight-minute span produced five turnovers, two field goals, and two free throws. Meanwhile, unsung heros for the Jays carried them — sophomore Kellen Milliner scored 8 of his 11 points during the run, and freshman Nate Funk added six. The run was capped by a Korver three at the 8:33 mark, whipping an unusually large (for the time) non-conference crowd of 8,500 into a frenzy.
Completely Random, Totally Rad Music Video of the Day: It’s a Long Way to the Top, If You Wanna Rock and Roll.
The Bottom Line: One of two things will happen Sunday night. Either Creighton gets rattled by the hostile atmosphere, misses a ton of shots early, and digs themselves a hole they can’t get out of — or they come out and play well enough early to get their confidence back, and then keep the game competitive throughout. If the former happens, I hope you’ve stocked up on provisions. If the latter happens, please, Bluejays, I beg ya: MAKE YOUR FREE THROWS.
I think it’s a close game, but their free throw woes late in games (it didn’t hurt them vs Oklahoma, but it killed them vs Ole Miss) are their undoing.
Nebraska 73, Creighton 68