I’ve watched the Sun Devils on TV twice this season, and both times I came away very impressed. Jahii Carson is frighteningly good at getting to the rim even against teams that are good at defending those kinds of players (while CU is not), Jermaine Marshall is a more than capable replacement for Carrick Felix (who’s now in the NBA), and Jordan Bachynski is a much-improved offensive player and the best big man the Jays have faced in the post-Echenique Era.
Carson was damn near unstoppable a year ago when these two teams met, and now has the benefit of a year of improvement AND rule changes that benefit players like him. He hung 40 points on UNLV a week ago, and had 23 points against Marquette on Monday night. Against Creighton last November, he went 9-17 from the floor, 10-11 from the line, and 2-4 from three-point range, with four rebounds, seven assists and 30 points while playing 38 minutes despite being in foul trouble. He was a one-man wrecking crew, in short.
Fellow guard Jermaine Marshall, a transfer from Penn State, has quickly become the team’s second option offensively. He averages 16.7 points a game, shoots 50% from the floor (33-66), 44% from behind the arc (17-39) and 81% from the line. His numbers aren’t skewed by one or two big games, either, as can often happen with averages this early in the season — in six games, Marshall has scored 19, 18, 17, 20, 5, and 21 points, which is remarkably consistent.
Complimenting those two, they have 7’2″ behemoth Jordan Bachynski, who has recorded a double-double in all six of ASU’s games this season (!), including a monstrous 14 point, 10 rebound, 7 block performance against Marquette. In one sequence early in the game, I watched in horror-slash-amazement as he blocked two straight shots on the same possession. Later, with his team leading 79-77 and the clock ticking down, he blocked the potential game-tying shot at the buzzer. Though he officially had seven blocks, there were at least another seven shots he altered but didn’t make contact with.
They’re a scary team, no doubt. Some on the Bluejay Underground make Arizona State out to be invincible, at least in this game, which I admit is a tempting opinion to have. But when you take a step back and really analyze how they match up with the Jays, it’s not nearly what you’d expect.
Last year, Creighton and Arizona State played in Las Vegas, with Creighton winning 87-73. Though they won by 14, CU really didn’t play extraordinarily well. In fact, they played pretty sloppily, all things considered. Austin Chatman had six turnovers, a season-high, fouled out for the only time all season, and looked a step slow thanks to an exhausting battle with Wisconsin the night before. Gregory Echenique was in foul trouble all night, playing just 12 minutes — six in each half — and as a result was mostly a non-factor. Doug McDermott scored 29 points, but Carson one-upped him by scoring 30.
As a team, they turned it over 15 times to just 12 assists. They made 34% from three-point range (8-23) and only two players made more than one trey (Ethan Wragge, 3-7, and Jahenns Manigat, 2-3). And they shot just 47% from the floor — they had only nine games all season where they shot worse than they did against ASU.
Looking at those facts, if you didn’t know the outcome of the game, you might think Creighton lost, rather than winning by 14. That’s encouraging. It’s also encouraging that while Bachynski was held in check by the Jays a year ago, it (mostly) wasn’t Echenique doing the job — thanks to Double-Zero playing only 12 minutes, they essentially played the same rotation of big men they’ll play Thursday night. Re-watching the game, I discovered that the smaller lineup was actually a good matchup for CU; Bachynski had a devil of a time defending players like Wragge and Artino, as the highlight reel shows.
My guess is the smaller lineup will be the most successful one for CU in this game, once again. Artino likely can’t guard Bachynski straight-up — he’s giving up three inches and at least 20 pounds to Bachynski, and probably isn’t strong enough to make up for the deficiencies in height and girth. Doubling him isn’t a terrific option, either, as they’ll need help to keep Carson from getting hot. Much like they did at St. Joseph’s, look for Creighton to put Wragge and McDermott on the floor together a lot — that creates a matchup nightmare for Arizona State, as Bachynski will have to try to guard one of them, preferably 15-20 feet from the basket.
That only works if CU hits their outside shots, of course, as creating that matchup nightmare on offense comes at the expense of a better matchup for Bachynski when the Sun Devils have the ball. It’s a gamble I’d take — he’s a much-improved offensive player, but the odds of him scoring 25-30 points are small enough to make it worthwhile, and even if he goes off, trading twos for threes still gives CU the advantage.
One other thing to note: a year ago against Creighton, ASU played only seven players, and CU’s bench outscored their bench 28-8. This year, their depth isn’t much better; just six players scored against Marquette earlier this week, and they have just seven players averaging more than six minutes a game. Should Bachynski get frustrated chasing Wragge and McDermott around, and get in foul trouble, the dropoff to the next-guy-in is substantial, both in terms of experience and talent.
If Creighton plays reasonably well — getting open looks from outside and knocking them down, keeping their turnovers low, and rebounding the ball — they ought to be able to win this game by 8-10 points when it’s all said and done. A performance closer to the one they turned in against Tulsa, however, and this could just as easily be a 8-10 point loss.
About the Sun Devils: Arizona State is off to its first 6-0 start since 1980-81, and owns wins over UNLV and No. 25 Marquette … The Sun Devils average 84.8 points per game, and shoot 49.4 percent from the field, 40.9 percent from three-point range and 67.6 percent at the line … Their offense is led by All-American Jahii Carson (23.0 ppg., 5.4 apg.) and Penn State transfer Jermaine Marshall (16.7 ppg.) … In the year-plus since Carson began playing for ASU, they’re 28-13 and averaging 73.5 ppg, while in the 41 games prior to Jahii suiting up, ASU was 13-28 and averaged 61.9 points per game … In the first three seasons of his career (89 games), Jordan Bachynski averaged 6.6 points, 4.3 rebounds and 2.03 blocks; this season he is at 14.0 ppg., 11.8 rpg and 4.8 bpg.
One Big Paragraph with Lots O’Dots™: Since the start of the 1998-99 season, Creighton has participated in 10 regular-season tournaments, and has a staggering 29-7 record in those events, winning five titles … They’re also 8-0 in such events the past two years, recording double-digit wins over Iowa, Wisconsin and Arizona State … The Wooden Legacy boasts four teams that finished with a Top 35 RPI a year ago, one of just two tournaments that can make that claim this year (the other: last week’s Puerto Rico Tipoff) … Creighton has scored at least 40 points in all eight halves it has played this season, while allowing just two such halves itself; Nationally, the only teams that have scored 40 or more points in every half they’ve played this season (through Sunday) were Creighton, Duke, North Dakota and Oklahoma State.
The RUN-DMD Show: Doug McDermott had 33 points and 15 rebounds in Saturday’s win over Tulsa, which is the only 30+ point / 15+ rebound game in college hoops this year. The last Bluejay to accomplish that feat? Bob Harstad, who scored 33 points with 17 rebounds in a December 6, 1989 win over Cleveland State.
The Last Time They Played: Last November in Las Vegas, the Jays scored on 11 of their first 15 possessions en route to a 27-9 lead just eight minutes into the game. Creighton held on for a 87-73 win to claim the tournament title.
The Series: Arizona State leads the all-time series 4-3, but Creighton is 1-0 all-time in neutral-site meetings with the Sun Devils.
Greg McDermott is 1-0 against both Arizona State and Herb Sendek.
Gratuitous Linkage: The terrific Nicole Auerbach of USA Today profiled Jahii Carson in a longform piece published Tuesday. It’s a great read, going into detail about how Herb Sendek has modified his offensive schemes to best utilize Carson’s talents.
This Date in Creighton Hoops History: November 28 is a day that hasn’t been very good to Creighton, historically. They’ve played just three times on this date since 1987, losing all three games badly. On November 28 of last year, they lost to Boise State 83-70 at home, deflating the euphoria surrounding two impressive wins in Las Vegas over Wisconsin and Arizona State. On November 28, 2010, they lost 65-52 at Northwestern, despite a valiant effort from Antoine Young, who scored 18 points with 5 assists while playing all 40 minutes. Before that, you have to go all the way back to 1987 to find the previous time CU played on November 28, a season-opening 70-49 thumping at the hands of California in Berkeley, a game in which Tony Barone’s young squad committed 21 turnovers.
You’ve got to go back 30 years to find the last time Creighton won a game on this date — a 57-55 road victory over Southern on November 28, 1983. And what a memorable game it was. At the start of coach Willis Reed’s third season on the Hilltop, the Jays had won just one road game in his tenure, after going 0-11 in 1982-83 and 1-12 in 1981-82. They seemed destined to drop their first road game that year, too, trailing 34-31 at the half to Southern. Reed shortened his bench to just seven players, with Vernon Moore and Kenny Evans playing all 40 minutes and Benoit Benjamin playing 39. Benjamin scored 23 points with 10 rebounds, 3 blocks and two rim-shaking dunks, and hit two crucial free-throws with 26 seconds to go in the game, giving the Jays a 55-53 lead. After Southern tied the game on a jumper with 13 seconds left, it was Moore’s turn for heroics; he took the inbounds pass, drove the length of the court and made an eight-footer with just seven seconds to play for the win.
Completely Random, Totally Rad Music Video of the Day: You bet.
The Bottom Line: Doug McDermott and Jahii Carson both score 35, canceling each other out. Creighton’s supporting cast is much, much better, and that’s the difference.
Jays 83, Arizona State 75