Nebraska is being billed as a much-improved team over a year ago, when Creighton whooped them 64-42 in Lincoln. That Husker team finished 15-18 overall, good for 10th place in the Big 10 (which amazingly didn’t put them in last place, because for the 12-member Big Ten, “Ten” is a word and not a number.)
Is their 6-2 record a product of an easy early schedule mixed with no true road games? Or, are they really a lot better, and if so, is it enough to make a move in a tough league?
The media covering the Big Ten don’t seem terribly impressed with the team’s prospects in 2013-14, picking them to finish dead last in Big Ten, which is 12th place in case you were wondering. In all fairness, the majority of their team is new, so it’s difficult to project how they’ll fare; slotting them last, though, has to sting for a program that believes it’s on the upswing with a new arena and a popular coach in his second season. KenPom.com, a site many (including me) believe to be the Bible of college hoops statistical data, agrees with that assessment, likely much to the consternation of Husker Nation. He projects a 14-16 record for them, which is roughly the same as they finished a year ago.
Their 6-2 record so far is largely an aberration, according to KenPom, compiled against the 298th toughest schedule in D1 (out of 351). The two best games on their schedule both ended in losses (UMass and UAB), while their best win came against Miami, a team predicted to finish towards the bottom of the ACC.
If they manage to defy the prognosticators and make a huge leap in achievement, it will be because their litany of newcomers performed better than anticipated, perhaps significantly so. Five of NU’s nine primary rotation players are in their first year competing at Nebraska, with three of those five newcomers being transfers from other D1 schools, including Walter Pitchford from Florida and Terran Petteway from Texas Tech. Though all were highly-touted upon signing with Nebraska, it’s worth noting none were standout players at their former school.
Petteway has been their go-to player early on this season, taking 30% of his team’s shots when he’s on the court, en route to averaging 15.8 points per game. He’s led the team in scoring four times in the last five games, and scored 51 points in their two losses to UMass and UAB in the Charleston Classic. Despite being an athletic 6’6″ wing who scores a lot (and takes a lot of shots — 30 more than his next closest teammate, to be exact), Petteway is not a terrific shooter, or at the very least, not terrifically efficient. He makes just 34% of his threes (9-26) and 40% overall (39-99), not the kind of numbers you like to see from the guy taking most of your shots. He is good at drawing fouls and converting at the line, though, making 39-45 (86%) from the line.
Pitchford, meanwhile, is their best outside shooter, which is unexpected given his size (6’10”, 234 pounds). He had 13 points, including three treys, and snared 5 rebounds in the win over Miami earlier this week, and averages 9.0 points and 4.4 boards a game. An athletic big man with good offensive range, he’s made 13-of-28 three-pointers (45%) so far this year, and reminds me a little of a quicker Jon Ekey, the former Illinois State and now Illinois standout that CU fans are very familiar with. Interestingly, Pitchford’s shot selection is almost equally split between three-pointers and two-pointers, taking 28 and 26, respectively.
The other D1 transfer, Leslee Smith from SMU by way of Seward County CC, has been a beast on the glass. A 6’8″ player with zero range, almost all of his shots come in the paint, though he does convert at a 62% clip (25-40). His true value is in rebounding, where he’s excelled early on. Smith grabbed 10 rebounds against Miami, 8 against Georgia and had a double-double against UMass with 12 points and 10 boards. His 16.9% offensive rebounding percentage — the percentage of possible offensive rebounds a player gets, computed as PlayerOR / [%Min * (Team OR + Opp. DR)] — ranks 30th in the country. He’s the X-Factor in this game to me, because given Creighton’s woes on the glass this season, they can ill afford to let Smith give his team second and third chances all night long, likely leading to easy buckets. If that happens, this game will not turn out well for CU.
Another newcomer, Tai Webster, a freshman from New Zealand, has reached double figures in points three times, including a season-high 14 points against Georgia. The further the 6’4″ freshman gets from the basket, the less dangerous he becomes, as Webster has made just 2-12 from behind the arc, and the majority of his 16 made baskets are from inside 15 feet.
Among returnees, Shavon Shields has emerged as a solid player on the interior, averaging 12 points and 5.4 rebounds a game. He shoots 48% from the field, and a serviceable 78% from the line, especially considering he’s attempted the second-most free-throws on the team (47). Ray Gallegos has struggled in his senior campaign, serving a two-game suspension to begin the year, though he did have eight points, five rebounds and three assists against Miami. A notoriously streaky player, Gallegos has continued that trend in 2013-14 — when he’s on, he’s a tremendous shooter, but when he’s off, he’s a possession-killer.
Just as they were a year ago, Nebraska is not a team that stretches the floor and makes their opponents guard them baseline to baseline; only 22% of their points come from behind the three-point line, which is 235th nationally. They hold the ball for an average of 18.1 seconds every possession before shooting, the 230th longest in the country, and average only 67 combined possessions per game, which is 249th. In other words, they don’t exactly get up and down the floor quickly, they don’t play in transition often, and when they’re in their half-court sets, they almost always look for shots inside.
Defensively, Nebraska is primarily a man-to-man team, and they’ve acquitted themselves well so far, holding teams to just 64.2 points per game. Their opponents get just 21% of their offense from outside, which is very impressive, and they’re holding opponents to just 31% shooting from outside. Overall, teams shoot just 44.1% percent, which is 59th best in the country.
So is Nebraska better? Probably. Are they enough better to win in Omaha during the regular season for the first time since 1995? Probably not. The better question is: are they improved enough to keep this game closer than the 22 points Creighton defeated them by a year ago? My sense is this will be a closer game, though not by much.
Barring something catastrophic, this should be another big Creighton win.
About the Huskers: Only two of the Huskers 12 players on scholarship have been at NU longer than two seasons (Ray Gallegos and David Rivers), while Gallegos is the only scholarship senior on the 2013-14 roster … The Huskers are averaging 11 points more per game than at this point last year, including a season-high 90 points against UMass on Nov. 21, NU’s highest single-game total since the 2009-10 season … Nebraska’s team scoring average of 73.0 points per game marks only the fourth time since 2000 that Nebraska has averaged more than 70 points per game through the first eight contests and the first time since 2006-07 … Nebraska scored 80 or more points in consecutive games earlier this year against South Carolina State and UMass, the first time that has happened since January of 2009 (vs. Maryland Eastern Shore and Florida A&M) … Nebraska has already scored 75 or more points three times after just reaching that plateau twice in 33 games last season, as the Huskers were 12th in the Big Ten in scoring offense, averaging 58.3 points per game … Last year, Nebraska had three players averaging over 30 minutes per game, including Ray Gallegos and Dylan Talley, who both ranked among the top five in the Big Ten in minutes per game. This year, no Husker is averaging more than 30 minutes per game, while nine Huskers average at least 15 minutes per game.
One Big Paragraph with Lots O’Dots™: Greg McDermott is the only coach in Creighton history to win two of his first three games against Nebraska, and with a win on Sunday, McDermott can join Arthur A. Schabinger and Dana Altman as the only Creighton coaches to win three straight games over the Cornhuskers … The Bluejays have won 13 straight regular-season home games against teams from BCS leagues (at time of game) since the start of the 1996-97 season, and those 13 wins have been by an average of 11.1 points, with seven coming by double-digits, and none decided by fewer than six points … Creighton is 47-1 in its last 48 regular-season home games vs. unranked opponents since the start of the 2007-08 campaign, and Nebraska is 3-14 in its true road opener since 1996-97 … Creighton is 9-0 with seven double-digit wins in home games played on Sunday night during the CenturyLink Center era … Ethan Wragge played in Bluejay wins over Nebraska in 2009, 2011 and 2012, and with a win Sunday could become the rare Bluejay player to appear in four wins vs. Nebraska. The only five men to play in four career wins over the Huskers are Kyle Korver, Joe Dabbert, Mike Grimes, Michael Lindeman and Tyler McKinney.
The RUN-DMD Show: Doug McDermott added to his career honor roll when he picked up All-Tournament Team accolades at the Wooden Legacy. McDermott led all players by averaging 21.3 points per game and also topped all players with 21 field goals made and 16 defensive rebounds.
Out of Context Ron Swanson Quote: [On bowling] “Straight down the middle. No hook, no spin, no fuss. Anything more and this becomes figure skating.”
The Last Time They Played: Last December 6, with Creighton leading 14-12 with just over seven minutes to go in the first half, the Jays rattled off a 14-3 run to end the half and took a 28-15 lead. They’d ultimately go on to win 62-42, posting (to that point) their worst field-goal percentage of the season (46%), making just 56% of their free-throws, and scoring a season-low in points. It was an ugly game for fans of scoring and playing well on offense, as Otter wrote the next day.
Austin Chatman, Grant Gibbs, and Jahenns Manigat went 5-16 from the field and combined for just 13 points, while Josh Jones, the team’s second-leading scorer off the bench, didn’t play after a heart issue during warmups. No one knew it at the time, but his career was over.
The Series: Nebraska owns a 25-21 edge in the series, though as I point out every year, that’s deceiving considering the Huskers ducked Creighton for 45 years during a period in which the Jays were a national power — all-time greats such as Bob Gibson, Paul Silas, Bob Portman, Chuck Officer, and Ralph Bobik did not play Nebraska during their careers. While the Travelin’ Jays of Red McManus and Eddie Sutton traversed the county, playing games in nearly every state and taking on any and all takers, they never made the short trek down I-80 to play Nebraska. If not for their refusal to play, this series would likely be lopsided in favor of the Jays.
As it is, Creighton has won 11 of the past 14 regular-season meetings, and holds a 15-9 edge in games played in Omaha.
Gratuitous Linkage: Because I refuse to give any more ink to the Red Menace than I have to, I won’t link to an interesting article on the opponent like I ordinarily do in this space. Instead, let’s talk about a group infinitely more deserving of our attention: the Creighton volleyball team, which defeated Arkansas in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday.
WBR’s Matt DeMarinis has been covering them all season, and is in Lawrence, Kansas for the tourney. He filed this excellent report following the win.
This Date in Creighton Hoops History: On December 8, 1989, Creighton beat Western Michigan 98-87 in double overtime in the first round of the Mazzio’s Pizza Classic in Springfield, Missouri. It was one of the best performances of Bob Harstad’s great career as he scored 35 points, including nine of CU’s last 11 points in regulation and 23 of its last 36 overall, to go along with 14 rebounds. Oh, and he played the final 17:51 with four fouls. He was 12-14 from the field and 11-13 from the charity stripe, scoring not just in great quantity but with great efficiency.
You know what? To heck with “one of the best performances of Bob Harstad’s great career.” That might be one of the best individual performances by any Jay, ever.
Completely Random, Totally Rad Music Video of the Day: Since AC/DC worked so well for Tuesday’s game, and I’m such a ridiculously superstitious person, let’s roll with some more AC/DC.
The Bottom Line: KenPom says Creighton wins by 12. I think it’ll be a bit more than that; 17 sounds about right.
Creighton 79, Nebraska 62