Three weeks ago, Creighton and Missouri State met in the conference opener, and just like they’d done the previous five meetings, the Bears emerged victorious. Initially, the Jays schemed to minimize Kyle Weems’ effectiveness, and it worked, as he was 3-9 from the field en route to six first half points. Unfortunately, their concentration on Weems allowed the unheralded Anthony Downing to go off for a career night, making 5-6 shots in the first half in leading the Bears with 11 points at the break.
Adjusting to slow down Downing at the half gave Weems some breathing room, and he torched them for 25 points in the second half, going 8-13 from the field. And yet, they might have survived — the game was tied as late as the 6:54 mark of the second half, and the Jays cut the deficit to three with 1:48 to go — except Downing continued to score, too, adding 15 after the half on 6-8 shooting. Trying to account for two red-hot shooters was more than the Jays defense could handle, and they buckled, especially late as a three-point game ballooned to a 12-point loss.
It was demoralizing for fans and players alike, and had the potential to be the sort of loss that shipwrecks a season. Of course, that didn’t happen. (Other horrifying things that didn’t happen, at least as far as my selective memory is concerned: Rocky V, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, Van Halen 3, Nickelback, eating an entire bag of store brand Kettle Chips in one night, the first Missouri State game this year, and several other things I’m forgetting to mention because…um, what were we talking about again? I forget.)
A win in Wichita three days later righted the ship, and the Jays haven’t lost since, going a perfect 6-0 with three road wins. Meanwhile, the Bears have completely squandered the momentum they earned with beating the MVC favorite on the road, going just 3-3 since and losing twice at home.
I was speaking metaphorically when I said I’d forgotten the first game, of course, although it’s worth noting that it remains the only game I did not produce a highlight reel for this season. I forced myself to re-watch it for the first time earlier this week, and once the dry heaves stopped, it quickly became apparent that an awful lot of things happened in that first game that aren’t likely to repeat themselves:
- Antoine Young had as many turnovers as he did assists, one of just three games this season where he’s had a negative or even A/T Ratio
- Young’s 3-13 shooting for the game was his second-worst offensive output of the season, eclipsing only his 0-3 game against Houston Baptist
- Grant Gibbs had more turnovers (4) than assists (3), one of just three games all season where that’s been the case
- Doug McDermott was 8-18 from the floor, one of only five games where he’s missed more shots than he’s made, and the only game where his missed attempts totaled in double-figures
- As a team, they shot 38.1% from the floor, the only game all season where they’ve made fewer than 40% of their shots
- Gregory Echenique had three rebounds, by far his lowest total since grabbing five in the St. Joseph’s game way back on December 10
That’s an awful lot of statistical anomalies to be bunched together in one game, and even with that going against them, Creighton played to a tie through 34 minutes. That’s encouraging, and so is the fact that last year in Springfield, the Jays battled a far superior Bears team to the final possession before losing in a hostile environment not unlike what they’ll face tonight — this is the Bears last stand, for all practical purposes. A loss tonight will be four in the league, which (barring a monumental collapse by Wichita or Creighton) would excuse them from both the MVC race and therefore from any glimmer of NCAA/NIT hope they may have left. A win keeps them alive for those goals, temporarily, though their margin for error is zero the rest of the season. This will be a desperate MSU team the Jays face tonight, which is why I can’t argue with the line on the game giving a slight edge to the Bears.
Creighton’s chances of victory depend on how many of those statistical outliers (“Off Nights” in layman’s terms) were caused by Missouri State’s defense and scheme, and how many were just the result of Creighton having a whole bunch of guys have bad nights all at once. If it’s the former, the Bears will likely win their seventh straight against the Jays. If it’s the latter, Creighton will stop this absurd streak and make the MVC a two-horse race.
Catching Up with the Bears: MSU fell from a first-place tie in the MVC standings on Friday with a last-second 61-60 loss at UNI, then faced another setback on Sunday with an 87-82 home overtime home loss to Evansville … The Bears are 1-6 all-time in home games against ranked opponents, including a 63-58 loss to No. 17 Creighton at Hammons Student Center on Feb. 26, 2003 … In the only other JQH Arena game against a ranked foe, No. 25 Northern Iowa took advantage of a controversial intentional foul in the final minute to steal a 55-54 win from the Bears on Jan. 30, 2010 … In four previous meetings, Kyle Weems has outscored Doug McDermott by an 83 (20.8 ppg) to 60 (15.0 ppg) margin. McDermott, however, has out-rebounded Weems 38-33 … The Bears are currently ranked 13th in the nation in turnovers per game (11.1), and last season, they finished 7th among 336 Division I teams in fewest turnovers (10.3). With that said, Missouri State has 32 turnovers over the last two games … Missouri State is the last team to defeat Murray State, which is currently ranked No. 10 and is one of three unbeaten teams remaining in Division I basketball. The Bears defeated the Racers 89-76 at JQH Arena in the first round of the 2011 NIT on March 15, 2011 … Kyle Weems has posted 18 straight double-figure games and ranks No. 8 on the MSU career scoring list (1,674), just 3 points behind Blake Ahearn (1,677 points from 2003-07) for the No. 7 spot.
One Big Paragraph with Lots O’Dots™: In Creighton’s last 28 games dating to late last season, it has shot 41.9 percent or better in all but two contests. Both games below 41.8 percent came against Missouri State … Creighton is off to a 6-1 start in MVC play this season, the program’s best mark to begin league play since starting 7-0 in 2002-03. That season, the Jays fell at Evansville in their eighth Valley contest … After going 6-21 in true road games the previous two seasons, Creighton is 6-1 in true road games this year. They’re currently 3-0 on the road in Valley action, and last started 4-0 in league road games way back in 1942-43 … Grant Gibbs, winner of the MVC Newcomer of the Week award two straight weeks, scored in double-figures in all three games last week. He averaged 10.7 points, 5.7 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game … Missouri State’s Michael Bizoukas, a fellow newcomer, leads the MVC with 6.1 assists per game and a 3.1 assist/turnover ratio, while Gibbs (5.9 apg., 2.5 a/to ratio) is second in both categories … There are five active MVC players with 1,000 or more career points, and three of them will take the floor at JQH Arena on Wednesday (Kyle Weems, Doug McDermott, Antoine Young) … Creighton has played in seven true road games this season. Six of the seven schools to host the Bluejays have set a season-high in that venue for home attendance, and the one that didn’t (Tulsa) was just 132 fans shy of a season-high.
The RUN-DMD Show: Doug McDermott has 1,018 career points in 57 games entering Wednesday’s contest. Head coach Greg McDermott owns a similar 1,033 career points — but took nearly twice as many games to accumulate them (110 career games at Northern Iowa from 1984-88) … Antoine Young and Doug McDermott are the first Bluejay teammates to go over 1,000 in the same season since Ryan Sears & Ben Walker in the Jays’ 2000-01 campaign.
The Last Time They Played: Missouri State ended Creighton’s bid for glory in St. Louis last March with a 60-50 win in the semifinals of Arch Madness. Creighton led much of the first half, and had a 37-29 lead with 16 minutes to play in the game. They’d score just two field goals over the final 12 minutes, as the Bears defense clamped down. Kenny Lawson led Creighton with 12 points, seven rebounds and three blocked shots, while Doug McDermott and Gregory Echenique grabbed seven boards apiece.
The Series: Creighton leads 30-28, having won eight straight over the Bears prior to dropping the last six. Missouri State is 18-7 all-time at home against Creighton, including a 3-1 mark at JQH Arena.
Greg McDermott is 6-11 in his career (and 0-4 at Creighton) against Missouri State, including a 79-74 double-overtime victory over the Bears to win the 2004 MVC Tournament. He is 0-1 against Paul Lusk.
Despite losing the last six, Creighton has led at the half in each of the last four meetings.
Gratuitous Linkage: Creighton’s Avery Dingman, a native of Branson, was recruited heavily by Missouri State’s previous staff. That he spurned his hometown team for a conference foe ruffled a few feathers in the Bears online community. Tonight he plays his first game back home, as the Springfield News-Leader’s Lyndal Scranton writes in this excellent profile.
This Date in Creighton Hoops History: There’s Fire Marshal Specials, and then there’s the crowd the Jays played in front of on January 18, 2003. Somehow, 10,184 people packed into the Civic Auditorium — nearly a thousand over capacity — for a Saturday afternoon showdown with Southern Illinois, nationally televised by ESPN. That nationwide audience missed the first 11 minutes of the game as a terrible Minnesota-Illinois Big Ten Foulpalooza ran a half-hour long, but when they joined the action, they saw Kyle Korver record a double-double with 24 points and 11 rebounds, and make three consecutive three-pointers on three straight possessions, the last of which sent the decibel reading inside the venerable old building to perhaps it’s highest level ever. #13 Creighton’s 85-76 win propelled them into the top ten two days later.
Completely Random, Totally Rad Music Video of the Day: You bet.
The Bottom Line: I completely understand Jays fans who think this looks like a loss tonight. Missouri State has had the Jays’ number lately, and they’re desperate — with eleven conference games to play, they have to go undefeated to have any realistic chance at winning the league.
I’m picking the Jays because Missouri State has struggled this year when teams get hot from outside — their defense in the paint can be stifling, but their perimeter defense is shaky. The Jays have had no trouble knocking down threes on the road recently, and I think they’ll ride Ethan Wragge and the hometown Avery Dingman to a win tonight.
Jays 78, Missouri State 75