What a difference a week makes. Last Wednesday, Creighton rolled into Terre Haute with an opportunity to put a stranglehold on the MVC with a win. Two straight losses later, their lead has evaporated, and they’ve dropped out of the AP poll for the first time all season. Another loss tonight and they’ll drop out of first place entirely, and suddenly their season would be on the brink. The goal would be to salvage an NCAA Tournament berth, instead of working towards a seed that gives them the best chance at a deep run.
It reminds me of 2004. The previous year, Creighton enjoyed one of it’s finest seasons, and came into 2003-04 with high expectations. They roared out of the gate to a 12-0 start, and won their first four MVC games. An injury to a key player — Tyler McKinney, whose eye injury ended his season after 10 games — staggered them a bit, but for a few weeks they rolled along mostly unscathed. On the morning of February 7, the Jays were 17-2 and 9-2 in the league, and seemed destined for a return trip to the NCAA’s. They lost 61-60 to Southern Illinois that afternoon, with Johnny Mathies making three free throws to pull within one point with 24 seconds left, then dribbling off his foot on the penultimate possession without getting a potential game-winner off. They got one more possession with 1.5 seconds left, but an alley-oop to Nate Funk sailed out of bounds.
After that tough loss, the season began to unravel. The Jays went 3-5 following that loss, freefalling into the third seed in the MVC Tourney. They had limped along following the loss of McKinney, but as February came, they hit a wall. Shots stopped falling, their usually stout defense faded, and they began losing the battle on the glass more often they won it.
That was a proud team full of seniors who’d had great success. Brody Deren, Mike Grimes, Michael Lindeman, and Joe Dabbert had all been a part of MVC Tournament championships, were a part of the team that beat Florida in the 2002 NCAA Tourney, and were some of the best players of the Altman (or any) Era. Nate Funk and Johnny Mathies, players who would go on to be great Bluejays on future teams, were also key contributors to that squad. Yet despite all their experience, their skill, determination, and heart, once that team ran out of steam they never recovered.
A loss on the first day in St. Louis to Southwest Missouri State ended any hopes of an NCAA Tournament bid, something that had seemed a sure thing just six weeks prior, and the season ended a few days later when they lost an NIT game to Nebraska.
There’s quite a few parallels to this season. The team from the previous year was one of the best ever, a group of veterans returned hoping to build on that success, and they roared out of the gate to an undefeated start. They lost one of their key players to an injury, played on seemingly unscathed for awhile and looked like they were on track for a special season. On the morning of February 6 (eerie how the dates so closely match, isn’t it?) they were 20-3 and 9-2 in the league, and were a lock for the NCAA’s. They lost a blowout to Indiana State, then another in heartbreaking fashion at home to Illinois State, and then…
Well, the rest of the story has yet to be written. Tonight’s game in Cedar Falls will give us a pretty good indication of how it ends, though. If the Jays win, and they sneak out of Evansville on Saturday with another “W”, the comparisons to 2004 will be nothing more than the ramblings of a slightly over-caffeinated writer. But if they continue to look like they’re running in quicksand, and drop tonight’s game, it may be hard to escape the parallels.
Catching up with the Panthers: UNI has won three straight games for the second time this season – matching its longest win streak of the year … Senior guard Marc Sonnen is shooting 46.3% from three-point land on the season to rank No. 7 in the nation (among players with a minimum of 2.5 made three-pointers/game) … Senior forward Jake Koch has scored 992 points and needs just eight more points to become the Panthers’ 36th member of the 1,000-point club … UNI is the best free throw shooting team in the Valley at 75.8% on the season, and is ranked No. 13 in the nation in team free throw percentage … UNI made six field goals in the second half against Bradley – all of which came form behind the three-point arc. The only other points the Panthers scored in the second half vs. the Braves came at the free throw line — 13-of-14 — as UNI missed all seven of its two-point field goals in the second half … UNI redshirt freshman Matt Bohannon posted a career-high 14 points in the Panthers’ 68-65 win at Bradley, draining four 3-pointers, grabbing two rebounds and tallying two steals.
One Big Paragraph with Lots O’Dots™: Creighton started the season 20-5, but is 6-4 in its last 10 games. Of the nation’s top-44 RPI teams (thru 2/10), Creighton is one of 17 teams that are 6-4 or worse in its past 10 games … The 25 college basketball teams that were ranked in AP poll on Jan. 18th are 40-43 since then in true road games (through Feb. 10) … Prior to Saturday, Creighton hadn’t lost a game with a +19 or better rebound average since losing 59-56 on January 8th, 1996 at Drake despite a 51-30 advantage on the glass … Of Creighton’s four setbacks, the Jays had the ball with a chance to tie (or go-ahead) in the final minute three times … Creighton is 12-0 when Gregory Echenique (9.7 ppg.) scores in double-figures this year, and 9-0 when Ethan Wragge (8.4 ppg.) does so … Creighton was 9-3 in the MVC after its 12th game of the league slate, the 18th straight season that Creighton has had a league record of .500 or better after 12 games, and each of the previous 17 campaigns the Jays would also go .500 or better in its final six contests as well.
The RUN-DMD Show: Doug McDermott has scored 1,965 points in 99 games. Assuming he scores 35 total points over his next four games, he’ll get there in fewer career games than any Oscar Robertson Trophy or John R. Wooden Award winner in the last 20 years except one (Tyler Hansbrough, 99 games).
The Last Time They Played: Doug McDermott scored 31 points with four rebounds and three assists in a 79-68 win over UNI on January 15 in Omaha. The Panthers’ Anthony James scored 25 points on 11-20 shooting (including 2-3 from three-point range) to go along with six rebounds, three assists and three steals.
The Series: Creighton leads the all-time series with Northern Iowa by a 30-16 count, but is 9-12 all-time in Cedar Falls and has lost three straight games in the McLeod Center. The Jays have won 14 of the last 19 and 25 of the last 33 meetings, but thirteen of the last 18 contests have been decided by nine points or less.
Greg McDermott is 5-5 against UNI (4-2 at Creighton) and 5-5 against Ben Jacobson.
Gratuitous Linkage: Carson Tigges of the Waterloo-Cedar Falls Courier wrote a nice feature on the parity in the Valley this year, where seemingly any team can beat any other on a given night. Or, as Derrick Docket of the MVC would say, #nutz.
This Date in Creighton Hoops History: On February 13, 2002, Terrell Taylor scored 28 points — including five in overtime — to lead Creighton past Drake in Des Moines 95-91. Brody Deren had 15 points and Larry House 14 for Creighton, who moved into sole possession of first place in the MVC with the win. The thrilling final minutes featured a three-point basket by Drake’s Lonnie Randolph with 49 seconds left in the second half gave to give them a 82-77 advantage, followed by Kyle Korver draining a three-pointer to pull Creighton within 82-80. After Drake made one of two free throws, Taylor responded with a three-point basket from the left wing to send the game into overtime. Tyler McKinney opened the overtime with a layup to give Creighton an 85-83 lead it never relinquished, as Taylor added a layup and three-point basket to close out the extra period.
Completely Random, Totally Rad Music Video of the Day: It’s time to survive.
The Bottom Line: I’ve got a bad feeling about this game, and not in the George Lucas-Cliche-Line-Of-Dialogue kind of way. Going to predict a two-point win, but I’m not at all confident that the Jays can pull this one out.
Jays 64, UNI 62