Lets dispense with this right off the bat: I think Creighton is going to lose tomorrow. They’re probably going to lose by a lot. However, because pretty much everything I thought this team would do this season so far has wound up going the exact opposite direction, there is a chance the Jays steal a win. Flimsy logic, to be sure, but when faced with long odds, sometimes flimsy logic can translate into hope. Right? You bet.
If this game were played in a vacuum, Wichita State would have a big edge. They play stifling defense, crash the boards and basically eliminate perimeter shooting from a team’s arsenal. Last year, they outrebounded the Jays by 25 (!) in Wichita, 22 (!) in St. Louis, and 6 (phew) in Omaha. Those are absurd numbers. They’re 14-2 overall and 10-0 at home, and are playing every bit as well as their record indicates.
The 7-1/2 point line in favor of the Shockers no doubt takes that into account. But there’s another storyline in this game, one which cannot be simulated or predicted in the vacuum of a blog post or a newspaper article.
How will Wichita State channel their frustration over the way the last meeting ended into today’s game? As soon as Booker Woodfox hit a three from the corner at the buzzer to win their MVC Quarterfinal game, Shocker coach Gregg Marshall protested that the clock was in err. Whether he believed the clock didn’t start soon enough, or that it ran too slow, he wasn’t about to be swayed by things like “video evidence” or “comments from the Commish.” He spent the better part of his coaches’ show that week claiming they’d been robbed. But hey, these things happen, and people move on.
Or so I thought. Go to YouTube, and there are more versions of the game footage than the Zapruder Film. With titles like “The Screw in St. Loo” and “Buzzer Not Beaten,” its obvious which side of the aisle these come from. Hilarious.
During this week’s MVC Coaches Teleconference, the subject came up again. From what I can surmise, they haven’t gotten over it yet, and are using it as motivation for today. So the question is: how does Wichita State channel that motivation and/or frustration into their play today? Do they get overly-aggressive, sped up, turn the ball over early and get into foul trouble, letting their emotions get the better of them? Or do they play to the edge of insanity but not past it, using the motivation to raise their level without going into hyperdrive?
Its the $64,000 Question, really. Can Wichita State’s players play within themselves in an environment where the fans are bloodthirsty and hoping for a 40-point blowout? Fascinating stuff.
One Big Paragraph with Lots O’Dots™: Wichita State enters today’s game with a 14-2 record, and a perfect 10-0 mark at home. The Shockers are tied for second place with a 3-1 record in the MVC … The Shockers are coming off a 65-62 road win at Missouri State on Wednesday and have also beaten Drake and Bradley in league play … Toure’ Murry leads a group of three Shockers who average in double-figures. Murry averages 13 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists per game, and also tops the team with 29 steals this season … Junior big man JT Durley averages 12 points and 5 rebounds, while senior point guard Clevin Hannah averages 11 points and 5 assists per game. His 65 assists lead the team … If the game is close, the huge disparity in free throw shooting between the team’s point guards could be key. Clevin Hannah leads the nation with a 95.2% accuracy at the foul line, and has 28 straight makes. Meanwhile, Antoine Young’s struggles are well-documented.
The Last Time They Played: Lets go to the video.
The Series: Unlike the result last season in St. Louis, Shocker fans cannot debate the fact that they’ve not won very often over the last decade against the Jays.
Creighton leads the all-time series with Wichita State by a 51-40 margin, including wins in four of the past five meetings. The Shockers do own a 26-19 lead in Wichita, but Creighton is 9-6 there in its last 15 trips. The Bluejays have swept the season series with the Shockers in nine of the last 15 seasons, and they’ve won 27 of the last 33 and 34 of the last 43 vs. the Shockers.
Further, Altman is 29-7 all-time vs. Wichita State, including a 26-6 mark since coming to Creighton. Altman’s 29 wins over Wichita State are five more victories than any other school he’s beaten. And lastly, Altman is 4-1 against Gregg Marshall. You bet.
Gratuitous Linkage: In light of recent weather events, this well-written and reseached article questioning the “Wind Chill” number is an interesting read. Its a meaningless number when you really think about it, but just another tool in the box for hyperbolic weather forecasters to use in an attempt to make winter seem exciting.
Official Gametime Snack:
The Totally Random Song I’d Play Right Now if I was Still a Radio DJ: “Cry Me A River” by Justin Timberlake. Request and Dedication going out to Gregg Marshall.
The Pick: The team Gregg Marshall is building in Wichita matches up well with Creighton. They’re tough, rebound really well, and play good defense. Even without the national TV audience, the circus atmosphere of Koch Arena today, their fans hatred of Creighton, and the perceived slight in the last game, I think Wichita would have won by a handful. Throw in that stuff, and its hard to know which direction this game goes. But my hunch, unfortunately, is the Shockers win by a lot.
Wichita State 77, Creighton 61