Two of the hottest teams in the Big East meet Wednesday when Creighton hosts Xavier. The Bluejays have won seven of their last eight games, including five straight since losing 79-71 at Marquette. Meanwhile, the Musketeers have won four of five — and over the last 11 days, they’ve beaten Marquette in Milwaukee (59-57), beaten UConn at home (76-72) and had a 16-point lead at St. John’s before losing in overtime. They’re the only team to beat Marquette in league play so far, and came within a whisker of sweeping UConn, taking the Huskies to overtime back in December before falling 94-89.
For whatever reason, the schedule was extremely front-loaded for Xavier — they’ve already played the two teams tied for first (Marquette and St. John’s) twice, and have already played fourth-place UConn twice as well. Now they come to Omaha to take on third-place Creighton. So while they’re 5-5 in the league, take that with the biggest grain of salt you can lift — six of their 10 games have come against the best teams in the league.
“Xavier will be an NCAA tournament team,” Greg McDermott said on Tuesday. “Look at the schedule they’ve played and what they have left, and how talented they are. To the committee, if the eye test is important, that team should not only be in the tournament, they’ll win games.”
Zach Freemantle leads Xavier in scoring (16.5 points per game) and rebounding (7.4 rebounds per game), and missed their first three conference games with an injury. Among those three games were losses to Marquette and UConn. The 6’9” Freemantle has had some big games over his five-year career against the Jays, including scoring 18 points in Omaha a year ago on 8-of-11 shooting (including 2-of-3 from three). Two years ago, he had 16 points and eight rebounds in Omaha, and 13 points with 11 rebounds in Cincinnati.
But it’s a balanced scoring attack, featuring four players averaging in double figures (or very nearly so). Indiana State transfer Ryan Conwell is second in scoring at 16.1 points per game, making 39.1% from three-point range while taking over seven of them per game (61-of-156). To put that in perspective, Steven Ashworth has attempted 159 threes for the Jays so far this year (making 58), in two fewer games because of injury.
He’s had nine games with 19 or more points. Among them: 21 points at St. John’s with four 3-pointers. But the eye-opener was his 34-point performance against Villanova, where he scored 28 in the second half alone. In that game, Xavier trailed 58-55 with 1:51 left but a four-point play (3-pointer and a free throw) from Conwell put Xavier ahead for good at 59-58 with 1:40 left. He scored 13 of Xavier’s final 14 points, set new career highs for free throws made (12) and attempted (14) and tied his career-high for 3-pointers made with six.
“Freemantle is back healthy; I think that certainly adds a big piece to their roster,” McDermott said. “But those new guys, (Dante) Maddox is playing more now, and Conwell’s been playing at a pretty high level all year. Just like Jamiya (Neal), as the season goes on, those guys in the first year are going to be more comfortable. So the difference between our offense and their offense, they’ve probably played the toughest schedule in the league.”
Dayvion McKnight is third on the team in scoring at 10.4 points per game, and leads XU in assists at 4.8 assists per game (sixth in the Big East). He’s also third in the Big East and 17th in the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio at 3.16. It’s already his fifth straight season with 100 or more assists.
Dailyn Swain (9.9 points per game) has upped his average in league games to 11.0 ppg. and 5.5 rpg., and is fifth in the Big East in field goal percentage (57.6%) and fifth in free throw percentage at (83.6%). He had a career-high 16 points and a career-high tying five assists vs. St. John’s at Madison Square Garden. In the win at Marquette, he had 12 points, nine rebounds (six offensive) and three assists.
Other players of note include Marcus Foster (no relation to the former Bluejay great), who’s third in the Big East in three-point shooting at 44.3% (31-70). Foster averages 8.2 points, 4.4 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game. He had nine points, a Xavier career-high eight rebounds and a Xavier career-high tying three steals at Marquette on Jan. 18 and followed that up with nine points, seven rebounds, two assists and two steals at St. John’s on Jan. 22. Foster also had a 14-point game vs. Seton Hall on Dec. 31, contributed 15 points at UConn on Dec. 18 with three 3-pointers, and a team-high 16 points and three more 3-pointers vs. Marquette on Dec. 21.
Jerome Hunter is averaging 6.4 points and 3.8 rebounds per game. He had 12 points and five rebounds in 13 minutes vs. UConn on Saturday, and contributed 10 points and six rebounds at DePaul on Jan. 11. Hunter posted a season-high 15-point game vs. Marquette on Dec. 21, and 12 points vs. Seton Hall on Dec. 31 on 3-3 shooting (2-2 on 3-pointers). Hunter, who sat out last season for medical reasons, was a star on Xavier’s 2023 NCAA Sweet 16 run.
They’re 20th in the country in three-point shooting percentage (38.3%) and fifth-best in assist rate (with an assist on 64.9% of their made baskets). And 22.5% of their total points have come from the free-throw line (39th most). Meanwhile, Creighton’s defense is designed to stop all three areas for opposing defenses and has been successful at doing so. CU’s opponents shoot just 30.3% from three (43rd best in D1), and have gotten just 30.3% of their points from three as the Jays have run teams off the line; just 34.5% of opponents’ shot attempts have been threes, ranking 43rd best. Creighton’s opponents have had an assist on just 41.9% of made baskets, 13th lowest in D1. And their opponents have gotten only 11.9% of their points at the line, the #1 ranking in all of college hoops.
Xavier loves to run and create offense in transition; over a fifth of their possessions have been categorized as coming in transition, and they rank in the 95th percentile in transition scoring efficiency. But if you can stop the ball, they’ve struggled to score in the halfcourt. And if you can defend without fouling, their two-point shooting inside the arc is below average (49.7%). That’s easier said than done, though.
“The biggest thing we’ve seen from them is their pace, especially in transition,” Jasen Green said on Tuesday. “That’s going to be a big thing for us, stopping them in transition. If we do that, we’ll be in a pretty good spot.”
“Their transition is as good as we’ve seen,” McDermott added. “They’re going to match you in waves, whether it’s a made shot, missed shot, turnover, they’re attacking and they’re not stopping until you stop them. It’s not like they’re going to get to the 3-point line and see that things are kind of put together (defensively) and back it out. They’re going to try to put their head down and get to the rim, and they’ve got shooters flanking both wings. Plus, (Dailyn) Swain can take it off the glass and lead a break, so you can get cross-matched some. That’s almost 25% of their offense, and they get about close to that from the free-throw line. So those are two areas of the game, if we expect to be successful, we’re going to have to take care of.”
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Xavier’s bench stepped up in the UConn win on Saturday as graduate students Dante Maddox Jr. (14) and Jerome Hunter (12) combined for 26 points. XU got only two bench points in the overtime loss at St. John’s on Jan. 22
Xavier has hit at least 10 3-pointers in eight games, including 10-25 vs. Villanova on Jan. 14, 10-21 on Dec. 31 vs. Seton Hall and 13-24 at UConn on Dec. 18. Xavier hit 16-31 from 3-point range vs. Jackson State on Nov. 12, which is tied for the second-most 3-pointers in XU history and the most since hitting a school record 19 in a win over Oklahoma in the 2020-21 season (12-9-20)
Xavier is third in the Big East and 17th in the nation in free throw percentage at 78.1%. XU has three players ranked in the top 15 in the Big East in free throw percentage: sophomore Dailyn Swain (fifth at 83.6%), junior Ryan Conwell (sixth at 82.7%) and graduate student Dayvion McKnight (14th at 77.9%). Swain and Conwell both had streaks of 19-straight made free throws earlier this season.
Creighton walloped DePaul 74-49 on Tuesday before returning home to hand Seton Hall a 79-54 setback on Saturday. It’s just the second time in Creighton history the Bluejays have owned consecutive conference wins by 24 points or more, and first time in the same season. The only other time came on Feb. 26, 2001 (Missouri State, 72-48) and Dec. 16, 2001 (Indiana State, 70-46) back when CU was a member of the Missouri Valley Conference. In the last 15 years, the only Big East team to record three straight league wins by 24 straight points was eventual national champion Connecticut (Feb. 10-17, 2024).
Creighton allowed just 103 points in two wins last week, surrendering 49 to DePaul and 54 to Seton Hall. It’s the first time that Creighton has allowed 54 points or less in consecutive league contests since joining the Big East, and the first time it’s happened for CU in any league since Feb. 5 & Feb. 10, 2008 when it was in the Missouri Valley Conference. Creighton has not held three straight league opponents to 54 points or less since a 19-game streak from Jan. 18, 1947 – March 5, 1948 when low-scoring games were the norm.
Creighton has won eight straight conference home games dating to last season, one shy of the program record in Big East play (set in 2013-14, when their first Big East team went a perfect 9-0 at home in league play). If you’re curious, Creighton’s longest conference win streak in school history (in any league) is 15 from Feb. 28, 2000 – Jan. 30, 2002 while a member of the Missouri Valley Conference.
Xavier owns a 22-19 lead in the series with Creighton, but Creighton leads 9-6 in Omaha. Twenty-five of the 41 all-time meetings have been within five points in the final minute, including 11 of the last 20 games.
Greg McDermott is 13-13 against Xavier, and 3-2 against Sean Miller. Miller is 3-6 against Creighton.
Creighton swept the Musketeers last season, winning a pair of games decided by seven points (85-78 in Omaha; 78-71 in Cincinnati).
On January 29, 2011, Creighton defeated Indiana State 83-69. Jahenns Manigat made his first career start, and finished with eight points, three rebounds, two assists, two steals and a charge taken. His big day was even bigger considering Antoine Young, and most of the rest of the starting five, were all in foul trouble. When Young checked out with his third foul at the 14 minute mark, the Jays led 46-40. Manigat, Daryl Ashford, Josh Jones, and Kenny Lawson — the B Team, as it were — blew the game wide open as Young, Greg Echenique and all Doug McDermott watched from the bench. A scant two and a half minutes later, it was 55-40 Jays, and Indiana State was calling timeout to regroup.
And while Gregory Echenique sat with foul trouble, too, Kenny Lawson helped fuel two big runs. In the second half alone, he had eight points, four rebounds and two blocks, one of which was launched like a missile deep into the student section. While the bench was excelling, Doug McDermott was turning in another quietly excellent day, in spite of he too being in foul trouble. He had 25 points on 7-11 shooting, 3-5 from behind the arc, and 8-9 from the free throw line to go along with 7 rebounds, 4 assists and a steal.
The Bottom Line:
Creighton is favored by 5.5 in Vegas, and by six on KenPom. ESPN’s BPI gives them 76% odds of victory. If the Jays can short-circuit Xavier’s transition game even somewhat, and play their usual brand of defense where they keep opponents off the line, they should get the win.
Creighton 76, Xavier 70