The last three years, Nebraska’a gameplan for the Bluejays was the same: make sure Ryan Kalkbrenner didn’t beat them at the rim, and roll the dice that Creighton couldn’t hit enough threes to make up for it. He scored four points a year ago, 13 in the game in Lincoln two years ago, and 10 three years ago. Meanwhile, CU attempted 40 three-pointers in 2022 and 2023, and a program-record 42 last year. And in two of the three games, it worked — the Jays were 10-of-40 and 12-of-42 from deep in their two losses.
The flip side is that when it didn’t work, it blew up in Nebraska’s face spectacularly, with the Jays making 10-of-24 in the first half of their 2024 win in building a 52-37 halftime lead (and winning by 29, 89-60).
To put the extreme nature of that defensive strategy in context, Creighton — a program built over the last 30 years on three-point shooting — has only attempted 40 or more threes in a game four times EVER. They attempted 40 against Texas Southern in 2023, and then there’s the last three years against Nebraska. That’s it. That’s the list.
Why is this relevant with Kalkbrenner now starring in the NBA? Because Nebraska has gone all-in on that strategy this year. Through eight games, their opponents have taken 50.3% of their shots from three, ranking 358th out of 365 D1 teams. The context there? In Greg McDermott’s 16 seasons at Creighton, an average of 42.3% of their shots have come from three. Here’s Nebraska’s opponents’ numbers from three:
USC Upstate: 12-of-35
Winthrop: 13-of-42
Kansas State: 12-of-35
New Mexico: 13-of-44
Oklahoma: 14-of-37
UMES: 7-of-22
FIU: 6-of-23
West Georgia: 4-of-24
Given that, it seems likely that even without Kalkbrenner, Nebraska is going to dare the Jays to take a significant percentage of their shots from behind the arc. Creighton has to make them pay for it.
The bad news is that Nebraska has been quite a bit better defending the three this year; it’s part of why they’re off to an 8-0 start for the first time in a half-century. It remains to be seen how their numbers hold up once Big Ten play starts, but for the moment, their three-point defense ranks in the top 100 nationally, and if it holds, would be the best mark in Fred Hoiberg’s tenure.
The good news? After starting the season poorly from behind the arc, Creighton has started to find themselves. Tuesday against Nicholls, Austin Swartz, Josh Dix, Nik Graves and Isaac Traudt each make 3 three-pointers — the first time since March 4, 2020 against Georgetown that CU has had four players each make three or more of them.
And as pointed out on Jays Classic’s X account, the team-wide numbers have also skyrocketed. Over their first four games (three buy game wins and a loss at Gonzaga), they were 33-of-122 from deep, or 27.0%. Over the last four (losses to Baylor and Iowa State, wins over Oregon and Nicholls) they made 43-of-108, or 39.8%.
Defense is another story. The Jays continue to struggle on that end of the floor, and giving up 76 points to Nicholls at home only exasperated the worrying about it.
“Inconsistency,” Greg McDermott said of his second opinion after watching the game film. “You know, kind of what I thought the first time. It’s a different guy all the time, usually there’s a breakdown somewhere. And in basketball, it’s hard to hide. If you make a mistake, your team’s probably going to pay for it. And we’ve just got to try to limit those mistakes more and more with each passing day. With Nebraska, they spread you out and you’ve got to guard the three-point line. So because you’re spread out, you better be ready to guard the dribble as well. And that’s something that we have to do a better job of.”
Defensively, the question for Creighton begins with how to defend Rienk Mast. The 6’10”, 250-pound Mast is back after missing all of last season with a knee injury, and leads the Huskers in both scoring (17.9 points per game) and rebounds (6.3). He’s made 43.2% from three (16-of-37) and 63.6% on twos (35-of-55). With roughly 1/3 of his shot attempts coming from outside the arc, he makes opposing big men chase him around, which has the side effect of dragging them away from the rim. He’s also assisted on 22.8% of their points scored when he’s been on the floor, showing the danger of having to throw a double-team at him if you’re unable to contain his scoring — he’s really good at passing out of double-teams to an open shooter.
“He’s difficult. You know, Fred uses him kind of like he used Georges Niang when he was at Iowa State. He’s got the ball at the top of the floor and he’s a decision maker,” Greg McDermott said on Friday. “Because he can shoot it so well, you have to respect him a few feet behind the three-point line and then he passes it so well as well too. He can score a lot of different ways. I haven’t even talked about in the post. He’s crafty down there as well. We’ve just got to make his catches a little difficult if we can and then try to pressure him when he has it.”
It seems likely that Jasen Green will be asked to guard Mast initially, despite being three inches shorter and 15 pounds lighter. Owen Freeman is the better size matchup inside, but does not have the foot speed to keep up with Mast when he roams out to the perimeter. How Green fares in that assignment might be the key to the game defensively, because if he can’t do it alone, everything could unravel.
That means Freeman (and Kerem Konan when he’s in the game) will be tasked with guarding the 6’10” Berke Büyüktuncel. While he can and does shoot threes, he’s nowhere near the threat that Mast is, and with a 2-of-18 (11.1%) line from outside so far this year (and just 23-of-83, or 27%, a year ago), the odds are against Büyüktuncel burning you too badly even if Freeman is late on close-outs or unable to be in his pocket on the catch.
6’7” freshman Braden Frager has been Büyüktuncel’s primary backup at the ‘4’, and occasionally played alongside him when Mast is out of the game. He’s a good three-point shooter (14-of-39, 35.9%) and, at least so far, spectacularly good from inside the arc (21-of-25, 84.0%). Unsustainable? Of course. But just eight games into his career Frager is already showing signs of being a three-level scorer (he’s also drawn 3.5 fouls per 40 minutes, and made 13-of-16 from the free throw line), and seems on track to be a rare homegrown star for Nebraska’s hoops team.
In the backcourt, Nebraska will be without their leading returning three-point shooter for the rest of the season, as Connor Essegian suffered a serious ankle injury last week. He was fantastic a year ago, making 78-of-207 (37.7%) from three and scored 15 points in their win over CU in Omaha.
Without him, Iowa transfer Pryce Sandfort will need to take on an even bigger role. He made 56-of-140 (40.0%) from three for the Hawkeyes a year ago, and when paired with Essegian would have made Nebraska a very difficult team to defend. As it is, Sandfort is a terrific shooter who’s made three or more 3’s in five of their eight games. And while his shooting percentage so far is down from a year ago (25-of-68, 36.8%) that’s skewed by three really poor games in the last two weeks — he was 5-of-14 from three against K-State, 2-of-10 against Winthrop and 1-of-5 against New Mexico.
Does his former Iowa teammate Josh Dix draw the defensive assignment here? It seems likely, given both Dix’ reputation as a good perimeter defender and his familiarity with Sandfort’s tendencies.
“He has our attention. He’s been shooting it really well this year,” Dix said. “But, you know, I saw it in practice all of last year. He didn’t have the biggest role on the team, but I knew he could do that and he’s shining right now.”
6’3” guard Jamarques Lawrence is back after a one-year hiatus at Rhode Island; he played the previous two years for the Huskers, making him the rare boomerang transfer. Lawrence is a better player than he was the first time around. He shot 56-of-148 (37.8%) on threes for the Rams a year ago, and has picked up where he left off by making 15-of-33 (45.5%) so far this year. And though he’s the lowest-volume shooter of their starters, Sam Hoiberg is a capable scorer and a good ball-handler that rarely turns it over.
Their 8-0 start has masked some of the roster’s biggest deficiencies so far. The biggest? There really isn’t anyone who can consistently create their own shots off the dribble, like Brice Williams did for them a year ago. They’re also typically not in great position for offensive rebounds, and they’ve grabbed a board on just 27.0% of their missed shots this year (278th). And they’re middle of the road in terms of forcing turnovers (18.7% of possessions, 124th).
Employing a positionless five-out offense where everyone is a threat to make a three is hard to defend, but on nights where those shots aren’t falling, they struggle to score. Look no further than last weekend, when they were 8-of-30 from outside against a bad USC Upstate team and grinded out a nine-point win.
The Huskers have taken an absurd 52.9% of their shots from three-point range, 10th most in D1. And they’ve made 34.6%, which ranks 141st. As Creighton fans know all too well, when you take this many three-pointers, you live or die by it. And even the Jays haven’t had a team where the three was *this* big a part of their offense.
Unlike Gonzaga, Baylor and Iowa State, this is not a team who will bully the Jays on the glass and turn a missed shot into an easy putback, nor is it a team likely to force a ton of live-ball turnovers that become transition points. So while it sounds overly simplistic, this might truly be a game where the team that shoots better from outside will be the winner.
Both teams are going to attempt a ton of them, that much is for sure.
Tip: 4:00pm
Venue: Pinnacle Bank Arena, Lincoln, NE
TV: FS1
Announcers: Connor Onion and Nick Bahe
In Omaha: Cox channel 78 (SD), 1078 (HD); CenturyLink Prism channel 620 (SD), 1620 (HD)
Outside Omaha: FS1 Channel Finder
Satellite: DirecTV channel 219, Dish Network channel 150
Cable Cutters: Available on all major streaming platforms
Streaming on the Fox Sports app and website
Radio: 1620AM, 101.9FM
Announcers: John Bishop and Taylor Stormberg
Streaming on 1620TheZone.com and the 1620 The Zone mobile app
Simulcast on SiriusXM channel 389 as well as on the SiriusXM App
Live Stats:
Follow along on Stat Broadcast
The Huskers lead the Big Ten and rank 16th nationally with 11.3 3-pointers made per game as of Dec. 3. Nebraska’s 11.3 3-pointers per game is 4.5 more per game more than last season after eight games. They’ve made 10-or-more 3-pointers five times in seven games, including 17 against FIU and 15 vs. Oklahoma. It marked only the seventh and eighth time in school history that NU had at least 15 3-pointers in a game. Last year, the Huskers made double-digit 3-pointers seven times in 35 contests.
Cale Jacobsen and Jared Garcia have provided punch off the bench over the last two games, as Nebraska has battled injuries to Connor Essegian and Berke Büyüktuncel (who missed the Winthrop game with a sprained ankle before returning against USC Upstate). Jacobsen averaged 11.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.0 steals and 2.5 assists per game in two games last week, reaching double figures in both games. Garcia, who is working his way back from a foot injury, averaged 5.0 points and 3.5 rebounds in 10.5 minutes over the two contests.
Büyüktuncel and Creighton’s Kerem Konan were both members of the Türkiye National program, playing together for several events, including the 2024 FIBA U20 EuroBasket and 2023 FIBA U19 Basketball World Cup.
Creighton men’s basketball is 4-1 inside Pinnacle Bank Arena since the facility opened a dozen years ago, as the Bluejays are the only non-conference team with multiple wins against the Cornhuskers inside “The Vault”. Creighton women’s basketball also owns more wins at Pinnacle Bank Arena than any other non-conference team, with three.
Creighton has led at halftime in 19 of the past 26 regular-season meetings, with nine double-digit leads at intermission in that span. Four of the seven times that Creighton trailed it half, it came back to win the game anyway. Nebraska has led at halftime and beaten Creighton in the regular-season just three times since Jan. 8, 1997, with those coming in December of 2018, December of 2022 and November of 2024. Also of note, Nebraska has scored more than 30 first half points in just six of the last 22 regular-season meetings vs. Creighton at all sites.
As Creighton head coach, Greg McDermott owns an 11-4 record against Nebraska. He is the only Creighton men’s basketball coach to win seven straight games over the Cornhuskers (2011-17), and his 11 overall victories against Nebraska are one more than the previous record for a Bluejay men’s basketball head coach against Nebraska, as Dana Altman went 10-7. McDermott owns a 17-6 record in his career against the Cornhuskers. Among his 635 career head coaching victories at all levels, the only other team he has beaten more as a head coach is DePaul (26-1).
Creighton has won 20 of the past 26 regular-season match-ups, and leads the all-time series (including postseason) 30-28. Creighton has won 10 of the last 13 meetings, with nine of those wins coming by double-digits.
Creighton’s 52-37 lead at the break the last time they played in Lincoln was the ninth time in the last 26 regular-season meetings that they have had a double-digit halftime lead. Greg McDermott is 11-4 against Nebraska since taking the CU job, and his 11 wins are the most ever, breaking Dana Altman’s previous record of 10 wins. And McDermott’s 17 total wins over Nebraska (including six at Iowa State) are second only to DePaul, who he’s beaten 24 times.
In their last visit to PBA, they tied the largest margin of victory in the 57 game history of the series, winning 89-60 in Lincoln. Baylor Scheierman (24 points, 10 rebounds) and Ryan Kalkbrenner (13 points, 12 boards, 3 blocks) both had double-doubles in the win.
On December 7, 2019 Creighton defeated Nebraska 95-76 in Omaha.
During a first half where Creighton had leads of 10-0, 27-4, and 37-7, and ultimately led 48-22 at the break, the Jays played A+ basketball. Defensively, they executed their gameplan nearly perfect, cutting off driving lanes and forcing Nebraska to create offense in the halfcourt where they struggle. Sure enough, the Huskers were 8-of-34 from the field and 3-of-14 from three-point range.
Meanwhile, the Jays were 17-of-33 overall and 8-of-16 from three-point range. They turned all those missed Husker shots into a 27-18 edge on the glass, a 10-2 edge in fast break points, and put the game on ice before the second 20 minutes could even begin.
Marcus Zegarowski led the way with 30 points, 9 rebounds and six assists. He shot 13-of-19 from the floor, made 4-of-7 from three-point range, and was the best player on the floor by a sizable margin.
The scoreboard moment to remember from this one came after a fastbreak dunk from Bishop. Jays fans have seen this movie before — many times before — and it never gets old. Like all your favorite movies, you can quote your favorite lines. Bishop’s dunk made the score 37-7, and gave this game the kind of singular score to signal exactly which blowout you’re talking about when it comes up on social media, message boards, and over a cold one at the bar. The quotable line, as it were.
37-7.
“It really hurt a lot, especially all the messages and things people were saying down at Nebraska last year,” Alexander said. “We took it personal. Obviously we wish we could have beat them by more, but we did what we had to do.”
Speaking of social media and message board fodder, that quote from Alexander ranks right up there with the all-time greats in this series, doesn’t it?
“We wish we could have beat them by more.”
KenPom predicts a four-point Nebraska win. ESPN’s BPI gives Nebraska 63.9% odds of victory. But the road team has won three straight in this series, and I have a sneaking suspicion it will be four.
Jays 78, Huskers 73