Creighton went 4-4 over their last eight games, picking up four wins over teams who are not in the NCAA Tournament and three losses to teams who are. Their most recent game was an 82-60 blowout loss on Friday night. That’s not exactly a great last impression, so earning a ‘6’ seed with first and second round games in Denver feels overly fortunate. It’s a short plane ride for the team — and for their fans.
Their opponent is NC State, who are in the NCAA Tourney for the first time since 2018. They finished sixth in the ACC, were blown out by fellow bubble team Clemson 80-54 in the ACC Tourney…and then got a bid to the tourney while Clemson is off to the NIT. Given their precarious spot right on the edge of the bubble, it wasn’t a surprise when national pundits like ESPN’s Dick Vitale singled them out.
It’s a fascinating matchup, featuring the ACC’s #4 offense against the Big East’s #1 defense. Watching NC State on film, the first thing that jumps out to you is the confidence they have in themselves to make any shot, any time — especially their backcourt. Their top two scorers, Terquavion Smith and Jarkel Joiner, have never seen a shot they didn’t like, and once they cross halfcourt they’re looking for it.
Smith averages 17.5 points per game, has scored 30 or more three times this year, and when he scores at least 20 the Wolfpack are 9-1. Their offense goes as Smith goes, and because their offense is what drives them, he’s the key to them winning games.
Smith’s top line number of 90 made three-pointers is very impressive. That’s a lot! But he’s taken 266 three-pointers to get those 90 makes (33.8%), or eight per game on average. Seven times, he’s taken 10 or more in a game. That kind of inefficient scoring has caused him to drop on NBA Draft boards; while scouts remain impressed by his ceiling and his raw talent, his shot selection gives them pause.
In December, John Hollinger of The Athletic wrote of Smith’s NBA potential:
Smith has deep shooting range, but he’s also very quick and shown himself capable — at times — of disruptive defensive plays.
The biggest question, actually, is about how big a strength his shooting really is. Thus far, he’s profiled more as a mad bomber (an astounding 14.9 3-point attempts per 100) than a notably accurate one. He’s at 36.1 percent for his career and 32.1 percent on this young season. And if he’s such a good shooter, shouldn’t he be able to make a free throw? (70.9 percent career)
For context, Creighton, who takes more three-pointers than almost anyone and more than their fans sometimes wish they would, hasn’t had a player attempt 260 or more threes in a season since Kyle Korver’s senior season in 2002-03. Korver took 269 that year and made 129 (48.0%). The next closest? Ty-Shon Alexander’s sophomore season (258). Yes, not even Marcus Foster at the height of his shot-hunting prowess took threes at this kind of extreme volume; his highest total was 224 as a senior (he made 93, or 41.5%). Wragge’s highest total? 234 as a senior (he made 110, or 47.0%). You’ll notice all of those players made the shots at a much, much higher clip than Smith does.
When he’s hot, things can snowball quickly. In the ACC Tournament against Virginia Tech, he made 5-of-7 from three point range, many from ridiculous places or wild angles. He was a perfect 6-of-6 inside the arc, too, and scored 30. Watch these clips to see what I’m talking about:
When he’s not? He shoots anyway, and things can snowball the other way. The day after that 30-point explosion, he was 5-of-18 from the floor against Clemson and scored 11 points.
So what gives? Smith has the sort of “in the gym” range that Bluejay fans associate with players like Mitch Ballock and Ethan Wragge; according to Synergy, 168 of Smith’s 266 attempts (roughly two-thirds) have come from 25 feet away or further. That’s twice as many as Ballock took his senior year — Ballock took 84 shots from that far out. He doesn’t make them at the clip Ballock did, but there’s no shaking his belief in himself.
And it’s not just Smith. Second-leading scorer Jarkel Joiner (17.1 points per game) has taken 60 three-pointers from 25 feet out or further. Casey Morsell (11.0 points per game) has taken 43. Jack Clark (9.3 points per game) has taken 40 of them. It’s what they do.
“Those guards are really talented,” Greg McDermott said this week. “(Smith) hasn’t seen a shot he doesn’t like, and he can make a lot of them. He can make tough shots. In transition, great range, six, seven feet behind the 3-point line.”
Smith has taken 51.2% of his shots from behind the perimeter, and just 20.8% at the rim. Joiner has more of a midrange game, with the ability to score off the pick-and-roll inside the arc, but even he’s only taken 27% of his shots at the rim. 21.6% of Morsell’s shots have come at the rim. They can score at the rim — all of them are 50% or better on those shots — but getting downhill and driving at the rim is not a big part of their games.
All of those jump shots mean exactly what you’d assume: they don’t draw many fouls, and they don’t get to the line very often. Just 15% of their points come on free throws, 336th fewest in D1. Their free throw rate of 25.3% is 340th in D1. And when they get there, they’re not all that great at making the free throws (their team free throw percentage is 72.0%, 172nd in D1). They also primarily look for their own shots; they’ve had an assist on just 44.9% of their made baskets, 325th lowest in D1.
McDermott said after watching film, there wasn’t a good comparison to a team the Jays have played this year — and certainly nothing like them in the Big East.
“In some ways, Arizona State, the way they played,” McDermott said. “They take and make some difficult shots at times. You can’t go to sleep on those guards. They might be in a position where you don’t think they’ll shoot it and they shoot it.”
In practice this week, the Jays have spent a lot of time drilling home that point. They will need to pick up the NC State guards the second they cross half court, and guard further away from the basket than they have at any point this season. That can be an uncomfortable position, because almost by definition it spreads your defense out and leaves defenders operating on an island. But the last thing you want to do is let NC State’s guards get comfortable from 25-30 feet away — because they don’t need much encouragement to shoot. The phase “hand down, man down” comes to mind, because if you drop your hands when you’re guarding NC State’s shooters and they can see the rim, they’re taking the shot, regardless of where they are.
In the middle, the defensive-lineman-sized DJ Burns takes up a lot of space. He’s listed at 6’9”, 275-pounds, but those numbers have to be out of date — visually he appears to be at least 25 pounds bigger than that. He’ll test Ryan Kalkbrenner, but not in the ways you’d expect. Burns is not a player who backs down opposing post players with the goal of getting deep into the paint. While it’s the highest rate on the team, only 40% of his shots have come at the rim. The rest of his shot attempts come from 15 feet or so out — Burns has not attempted a single three-point shot this season.
Instead, his game is predicated on catching the ball in the post, and backing down defenders with the goal of bringing a double team — he has great court vision, and kicks the ball out to shooters who find an opening because of the double team.
“Burns is a is a handful, because he can score it and he’s a he’s an elite passer as well out of the post,” McDermott said. “It’s gonna challenge Ryan and Fred to kind of stay in front of him and make him score over the top. If you make a mistake on the backside on a cutter, he’s gonna find them.”
Defensively, they’re not a very sound group. Opponents have been successful using the pick-and-roll to get them scrambling; if you can get downhill, there will be opportunities to kick the ball out to open shooters. Teams who move the ball well can generate open looks, too, because they aren’t great helpside defenders, either. Their defense is geared more on disruption than on contesting shots — their guards go for steals, their bigs look for blocks, and they switch up their looks by using both a 3/4 court trap and a zone at times.
Creighton should be able to play the way they want to play offensively — pushing the ball in transition, looking for pick-and-roll opportunities for Kalkbrenner early in the shot clock, and turning down good shots for great shots. The keys will be to actually make those shots (which sounds obvious, but it’s true), and to avoid the sorts of dumb turnovers that doomed them against Xavier on Friday night. If NC State is running in transition off of open floor turnovers, Smith and Joiner are going to be that much harder to contain.
Of course, in March, it’s rarely the guys at the top of the scouting report who’ve done the most harm to the Bluejays. If they’re able to somewhat contain Smith and Joiner, the guy to watch out for is Morsell. He’s their best perimeter shooter by percentage (77-of-189, 40.7%), and has taken advantage of the attention defenses pay to the rest of the backcourt to find open looks.
- Tip: Approx. 3:00pm
- Venue: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
- TV: TNT
- Announcers: Lisa Byington, Steve Smith, Avery Johnson and Andy Katz
- In Omaha: Cox channel 36, CenturyLink Prism channel 1108/1109
- Satellite: DirecTV channel 246, Dish Network channel 138
- Streaming here
- Creighton Radio: 1620AM, 101.9FM
- Announcers: John Bishop and Nick Bahe
- Streaming on The Varsity Network app, Powered by Learfield
- National Radio: Westwood One
- Announcers: Dave Pasch and Fran Fraschilla
- Simulcast on SiriusXM channel 135 or 203
- Streaming here
- Terquavion Smith was voted onto the All-ACC Second Team, is an NABC First Team All-District selection and is a USBWA All-District III team member. Smith leads the Pack and ranks third in the ACC in scoring with an average of 17.5 points per game. Earlier this season, Smith eclipsed 1,000 career points in his 58th career game. He’s the fourth-fastest ACC player to 1,000 career points in the last 25 years.
- Graduate guard Jarkel Joiner joined Smith on the All-ACC Second Team and the USBWA All-District III team. Joiner is one spot behind Smith in the ACC in scoring, ranking fourth with an average of 17.1 points per game. Over the last eight games, Joiner is averaging 21.4 points, 5.4 rebounds, 5.4 assists and 1.9 steals. He’s led NC State in scoring in five of its last eight games and posted a triple-double at Syracuse on Feb. 14.
- Jack Clark is fourth in the ACC in steals, 10th in rebounding, and 11th in offensive rebounds (2.1). He enters the NCAA Tournament having scored in double figures in three straight games and is shooting 57.7% in those games. Clark has scored in double figures in 12 of 22 games this season, led the team in steals 13 times and in rebounding 9 times.
- Creighton has won at least one game in 11 of its last 13 postseason appearances, a stretch that began in 2007-08. The only two first round losses? Back-to-back NCAA Tourney defeats in 2017 and 2018.
- Twelve players on the Creighton team have been a part of an NCAA Tournament squad before, and six of them have appeared for the Bluejays in the Big Dance. Ryan Kalkbrenner, Shereef Mitchell, Sami Osmani and Devin Davis were all part of CU’s 2021 team that went 2-1. Kalkbrenner and Mitchell played in all three games, Davis played in the win vs. Ohio and the loss to Gonzaga, and Osmani played in the loss vs. Gonzaga.Last season Arthur Kaluma and Trey Alexander played in both games, while Kalkbrenner, Osmani and Davis played in one game. Mitchell, Ryan Nembhard and John Christofilis were injured and missed last year’s NCAA Tournament, while Zander Yates and Mason Miller were on the roster as redshirts.
Additionally, Baylor Scheierman was in last year’s NCAA Tournament for South Dakota State (going 0-1), while Francisco Farabello played in last year’s NCAA’s for TCU (going 1-1).
- Creighton is 4-9 against teams that made the 2023 NCAA Tournament. The Jays were 1-0 vs. Arkansas, 1-1 vs. Providence and UConn, 1-2 vs. Xavier, 0-2 vs. Marquette and 0-1 vs. Texas, Arizona State and Arizona. In those 13 games, Creighton went 3-1 at home, 0-5 on the road and 1-3 on neutral floors.
Creighton and NC State have split two previous match-ups, both of which took place on a tropical island. NC State won 86-55 on Dec. 28, 1987 at the Rainbow Classic in Honolulu, Hawaii. And then Creighton defeated NC State 112-94 on Nov. 20, 2016 at the Paradise Jam in the U.S. Virgin Islands. CU’s 112 points were its fifth-most in history and a single-game Paradise Jam record. Cole Huff scored 20 points in the victory to lead a CU team that shot 60.6 percent from the field.
The highlights of that one are the Mo Watson/Marcus Foster/Justin Patton Jays at the height of their powers. The first half against the Wolfpack was good — nine assists on 20 made baskets, 55.6% shooting from the floor, and just six turnovers despite playing at a breakneck pace. In the second half, their numbers were even more absurd: 1.568 points per possession, with 12 assists on 20 made baskets, and just four turnovers. Oh, and they were 20-30 (66.7%) from the floor, 7-12 from three-point range (58.3%) and 11-11 from the line (100%).
For the game, Creighton scored on 45 of their 80 possessions, which is an average of 1.400 points per possession. How fast did they play? They used an average of only 15 seconds per possession, and quite literally ran a short-handed NC State team into the ground.
Last March 17, the Jays defeated San Diego State 72-69 in overtime in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. That broke a streak of four straight losses on St. Patrick’s Day in the NCAA Tourney. And what a way to do it: the Jays ended regulation on a 9-0 run to tie it, and ended OT on a 6-0 run to advance.
The Bottom Line:
The Jays are five point favorites according to Vegas oddsmakers, a line that has stayed pretty consistent all week. KenPom agrees, predicting a 76-71 Bluejay win. And ESPN’s BPI gives the Jays a 73.5% chance of victory.