Ten years ago this March, eighth-seeded Creighton beat ninth-seeded Alabama 58-57 in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. That 56-possession rock fight, clinched when Josh Jones locked down Alabama’s Trevor Releford on the final possession and forced him to take an off-balance shot at the buzzer, was about as stressful as March Madness gets.
I’ve been thinking a lot about that game this week, because Creighton’s opening matchup of the 2022 NCAA Tournament has a lot of similarities. The Crimson Tide had the sixth-best adjusted defensive efficiency in the country entering that game, but were average offensively; San Diego State comes into Thursday’s matchup ranked second in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency but is below average offensively. Most pundits see this as a low-possession, high-intensity battle decided in the final minute.
San Diego State enters the tournament winners of 11 of their last 14 games, and the three losses came by a combined three points to fellow NCAA Tournament teams — one-point road losses to Colorado State and Boise State by identical 58-57 scores, and a 53-52 loss to Boise State in the Mountain West title game.
At the top of the scouting report is senior Matt Bradley, a graduate transfer from Cal who is their only player to average in double figures at 17.0 points per game. Bradley is lethal from just about anywhere; he’s made 41.4% of his threes (57-of-137), 39.8% on midrange jumpers, and 56.1% on shots at the rim. He has great size for a guard at 6’4” and 220 pounds, making him hard to stop in the paint when he gets a head of steam rolling; who the Jays defend Bradley will be interesting. Do they stick Trey Alexander on him, who is a bit better on-ball defender but gives up 35 pounds to him? Or go with Alex O’Connell, who is taller and longer and a better perimeter defender, but not as good at stopping the dribble?
Whoever draws the assignment will face a guard with a lot of tools in his arsensel:
Bradley struggled in the MWC Tournament last weekend, leaving some to wonder how much is left in the gas tank for a warrior who’s been tasked with such a heavy offensive burden all season. In the first two games, he shot just 4-of-14, scored 12 combined points, and had nine turnovers. Against Boise State in the title game, he had 17 points but needed 17 shots to get there (4-of-13 on twos and 2-of-4 on threes). It’s probable that a senior who is finally in his first NCAA Tournament finds another gear and renders last weekend’s struggles a moot point. It’s also possible he’s worn down and will struggle against a physical defense. It’s absolutely worth watching closely, because he’s by far their biggest offensive threat.
Senior forward Nathan Mensah is the Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year after blocking 2.2 shots per game (and altering or changing numerous others). He averages 7.3 points and a team-leading 7.1 rebounds per contest. Interestingly, his 190 shot attempts have been split nearly even between shots at the rim (91) and midrange jumpers (95) — interesting because he’s really, really good at the former (62.9%) and below average at the latter (35.8%).
Point guard Trey Pulliam averages 8.5 points per game and tops the Aztecs with 103 assists. More a distributor than scorer, Pulliam is a decent shooter inside the arc, primarily on pull-up jumpers. He doesn’t get to or finish at the rim well, and doesn’t shoot the three particularly well, either. But he’s expert at setting up Bradley all over the floor and Mensah in the paint.
Creighton’s defense revolves around their guards running over nearly every screen, funneling the dribble toward Kalkbrenner where he blocks or alters shots better than almost anyone. Combined with their drop coverage, it encourages opponents to take short/medium jumpers rather than challenge them at the rim.
Those are the shots SDSU’s top scorers love to take. 42.1% of Bradley’s total shot attempts have been two-point jumpers. 50.0% of Mensah’s shots have been from there, and 56.1% of Pulliam’s have been two-point jumpers. Assuming they struggle to score at the rim — both because they’ve struggled to do so over the course of the season, and because they’re facing an elite rim protector in this game — whether they knock down midrange jumpers or not could be a deciding factor in the game
But their offense isn’t where they win or lose games. SDSU’s defense gets the headlines, and for good reason. With an adjusted defensive efficiency of 86.1, they are a full six points better than Creighton who had the best mark in the Big East at 92.1.
SDSU’s opponents have played the slowest pace in D1, at 19.2 seconds per possession, for all the reasons you’d suspect — the Aztecs keep opponents from running in the open floor by cleaning up on the offensive glass and limiting turnovers, and then in the half court, their length and athleticism take away your first (and second, and often third) options. Opponents often get impatient, and try to force things by taking ill-advised shots, making risky passes, or dribbling into traffic, which compounds the problem. SDSU’s opponents have had a turnover on 21.7% of their possessions, 29th most in D1, and have had the ball stolen away on 11.4% of possessions, 43rd most.
There aren’t many, if any, holes in their defense. They block 14.4% of opponents shots, a big reason they allow teams to shoot just 43.1% on two-pointers (sixth-best in D1 and well below the D1 average of 49.7%). Because of the difficulty scoring in the paint and at the rim, opponents resort to shooting lots of threes; nearly 40% of opponent’s shot attempts have come from behind the arc (well above the D1 average), where they shoot just 30.4% (33rd worst and also well below the D1 average of 33.7%).
One of the biggest reasons the Aztecs are so efficient defensively on the perimeter is because they have the ability to switch almost every screen without worrying about mismatches. Against most teams, that’s served them well. Against Creighton, switching screens in the paint will allow the Jays to exploit Ryan Kalkbrenner against smaller defenders — and against someone other than SDSU’s great post player, Nathan Mensah. They faced a seven-footer 12 times this season, and in those games, the opposing big man shot 50.5% on two-pointers — remember, opponents have made just 43.1% of their two-pointers overall. Getting touches at the rim for Kalkbrenner early, often, and then doing it again is one of CU’s biggest keys to victory. He had 15 second-half points against Villanova on Saturday; he’s scored 12 or more points in 11 straight games.
- Tip: 6:27pm
- Venue: Dickies Arena, Fort Worth, TX
- TV: TruTV
- Announcers: Brian Anderson, Jim Jackson, Allie LaForce
- In Omaha: Cox channel 203, CenturyLink Prism channel 1164/1165
- Satellite: DirecTV channel 246, Dish Network channel 242
- Streaming at http://ncaa.com/marchmadnesslive
- Creighton Radio: 1620AM
- Announcers: John Bishop and Nick Bahe
- No streaming or webcast allowed per NCAA regulations
- National Radio: Westwood One
- Announcers: Kevin Kugler and Robbie Hummel
- Westwood One affiliates
- Streaming at http://westwoodonesports.com/FortWorth
- Satellite radio: Westwood One feed on Sirius 138, XM 205, or Internet 968
- For Cord Cutters:
- TruTV is available on all major streaming services including Hulu, Sling, AT&T TV, YouTube TV, and Fubo
- SDSU did not collect a single win when trailing in the final minute or so this season. Final possession wins on offense: zero. Final possessions wins on defense: four, against Arizona State, Fresno State and Nevada twice.
- San Diego State played in its fifth consecutive Mountain West Tournament title game, falling to Boise State, 53-52. The Aztecs had two good looks in the final eight seconds but Matt Bradley’s layup was long and a runner by Trey Pulliam also missed the mark. Amazingly, SDSU has made the tournament title game in eight of the last nine years and in 12 of the last 14 seasons (2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022).
- This is the program’s ninth tournament appearance in the last 12 seasons that a champion was crowned. That total does not include the 2019-20 season when SDSU was 30-2 and ranked sixth in the AP poll when the season ended prior to the tournament. The Aztecs are making their 14th appearance in the Division I event, owning a 6-13 all-time record. Head coach Brian Dutcher has been on the Aztec sidelines either as head coach or assistant for 16 of the program’s 19 all-time tournament games and all six of the program’s victories.
- Creighton freshman Arthur Kaluma is the brother of San Diego State senior Adam Seiko. The two were teammates on the Ugandan National Team last summer when they competed at AfroBasket in Rwanda. Both men started, with Kaluma averaging 13.2 ppg. and Seiko averaging 13.0 ppg. Their coach for Uganda is George Galanopoulos, who is the head coach for the G-League’s Texas Legends, who are based out of the Fort Worth suburb of Frisco.
- Despite their youth, the Jays do have some Big Dance experience. Alex O’Connell and Ryan Kalkbrenner played in all three games last season. O’Connell also played in seven NCAA Tournament games at Duke, including a pair of starts, as the Blue Devils went 5-2 in those contests. KeyShawn Feazell played in an NCAA Tournament loss for Mississippi State in 2019 against Liberty. Ryan Hawkins was a part of four NCAA Tournament teams while playing at the Division II level for Northwest Missouri State, going 18-1 (12-1 when he played). In both 2018-19 and 2020-21 he started all six games of Northwest’s national title run. He was named the MVP of the 2020-21 Elite Eight after posting 32 points in the Elite Eight, 20 points and 11 rebounds in the semifinal and 31 points and 18 rebounds in the title game vs. West Texas A&M.
- Creighton is making its 23rd NCAA Tournament appearance, and 14th in the last 24 years. The Bluejays are 14-23 all-time in NCAA action, including a 10-12 record in its first game. Last season Creighton defeated UC Santa Barbara (63-62) and Ohio (72-58) before falling to eventual runner-up Gonzaga (83-65) in the Regional Semifinal. It was CU’s first appearance in the Sweet 16 since 1974. Creighton owns an 8-12 record all-time in the Midwest Region, far more wins than any other Region.
- Creighton is one of just 11 teams that had both its men’s and women’s basketball teams earn an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. That list consists of Arkansas, Baylor, Creighton, Indiana, Iowa State, LSU, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, North Carolina, Notre Dame and Ohio State.
Creighton owns a 4-3 lead in the all-time series with San Diego State, though SDSU won the only two previous times the programs have met on a neutral floor. The last time they met, SDSU defeated Creighton 83-52 in November of 2019 at the 19th Annual Continental Tire Las Vegas Invitational.
Five current Aztecs played in that game, including Omaha native Aguek Arop (7 points, 5 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal), Nathan Mensah (3 points, 6 rebounds, 2 blocked shots, 2 steals), Adam Seiko (3 points, 2 rebounds), Trey Pulliam (3 assists) and Keshad Johnson (3 rebounds, 1 assist). No one from Creighton’s active roster played in that game; Shereef Mitchell did but is out for the year with an injury.
Creighton’s played on St. Patrick’s Day in the NCAA Tournament four times before, and they’re all terrible memories: an 85-69 loss to #6 Missouri on March 17, 1989, a 72-60 loss to #13 Illinois on March 17, 2002, a 63-61 loss to West Virginia on March 17, 2005, and a 84-72 loss to Rhode Island on March 17, 2017. Greg McDermott’s UNI Panthers lost an NCAA Tournament game on St. Patrick’s Day to Dayton in 2006 (54-49), too.
The Bluejays have actually won a game on March 17 — and it was an NCAA Tournament game, to boot — but you have to go all the way back to the 1962 NCAA Tournament to find it. Red McManus’ first team to earn an NCAA Tourney berth beat Memphis State in the first round, 87-83, and advanced to the second round where they met eventual national champ Cincinnati. In that game, Paul Silas picked up two fouls in the first 90 seconds and was held to a career-low seven rebounds. A 66-46 loss ended their hopes of advancing, but in those days there was a regional consolation game the following day. And so on March 17, 1962, the Bluejays defeated Texas Tech 63-61 in the NCAA Midwest Region Consolation Game.
The Jays trailed by two with 30 seconds left, but Herb Miller was fouled in the act of shooting and went to the line where he made two free throws to tie it. Their defense forced a turnover on the inbounds pass, and then Pete McManamon nailed a 20-footer with eight seconds left that wound up as the game-winner.
“It was a heart-throbbing finish, just like a lot of them we’ve won,” Coach McManus told the Omaha World-Herald after the game. “but a fitting climax for a team that wouldn’t give up.”
The Bottom Line:
It’s exceedingly difficult to find a pundit predicting a Bluejay victory. Among the analytics crowd, KenPom predicts a 61-58 SDSU win and Bart Torvik predicts a 60-57 SDSU win. ESPN’s BPI gives SDSU a 63.2% chance of victory. Vegas has the Aztecs as two-point favorites.
It’ll be a grinder. But Creighton’s won these games all year. They’re 7-2 in games decided by five points or less, with two of those wins coming without Ryan Nembhard — 81-78 in the game at St. John’s where he was lost for the season, and 64-62 on March 2 against UConn. I think that mark will move to 8-2 after this one. But take the under.
Creighton 56, San Diego State 53