Villanova comes into Saturday firmly in third place in the Big East at 10-3 and 19-5 overall, and firmly in the NCAA Tournament field. Creighton enters in a tie for fourth with Seton Hall at 7-7 in the league, though they have a lot more in common with the glut of teams stacked behind them than they do with the 17-win Pirates. Non-conference struggles have left CU with just 13 total wins, the same as Georgetown, DePaul and Butler and one more than Xavier.
The Bluejays haven’t won consecutive games since late December, and have lost four of their last five to squander every bit of momentum they’d created after a 6-3 start to conference play. Meanwhile, Villanova has won four straight and seven of their last 10, with the three losses coming to UConn, St. John’s…and Creighton.
“Obviously they’ve played really well,” Greg McDermott said Thursday. “And we’re their only loss to someone that’s not named UConn or St. John’s. So we’re going to get their best shot. We had an incredible second half out there where we shot 70%. You’re going to win most games when that happens. I think there’s a little more teeth to what they’re doing defensively than when we played them the first time, and we’re going to have to make sure we match that.”
That 76-72 win in Philadelphia on January 7 is far and away Creighton’s best of the season. How in the heck did it happen? And can they repeat it?
Austin Swartz (20), Josh Dix (17) and Blake Harper (17) combined to score 54 of the team’s 76 points, and 33 of their 46 points in the second half. All three are tremendous mid-range shooters, and they exploited Villanova’s drop coverage to maximum effect. In a league where most opponents have been aggressive in their pick-and-roll coverages, often taking away those 12-16 foot jumpers, Villanova was content to let the Jays rise up from there. It will be interesting to see if the Wildcats change up their defense in the rematch, or stick with what’s worked for them in almost every other game.
“We were able to get to some spots and, you know, Josh and Austin in particular made a lot of mid-range shots that game,” McDermott said. “That’s kind of what they give up with their drop coverage. So we’ve got to try to get to those spots and make the right reads once again.”
Dix also locked down Bryce Lindsay, the Wildcats best perimeter scorer, by holding him to four points on 2-of-10 shooting (and 0-of-3 from three). He came into the game averaging 16.9 points per game, shooting 44.7% from three, and making an average of 3.3 threes per game. Perhaps it’s a coincidence, and perhaps not, but since that game Lindsay has gone into an offensive tailspin. He’s scored in double figures just three times since, making 13-of-60 from three (21.6%). His season average from outside has dropped 10 points over that span.
That slump means he’s no longer their leading scorer; that honor now falls to 6’4” guard Tyler Perkins. He’s raised his scoring average from 10.9 points to 13.5 over the same period, continuing to knock down shot from everywhere on the floor. He had 18 in the first meeting, making all five of his shots inside the arc (though he was 2-of-8 from three).
Freshman point guard Acaden Lewis averages 12.5 points and 5.3 assists per game. His numbers are up across the board from when the Jays saw him a month ago, and 2/3 of the way through his first season he’s on track to be the next great Wildcat PG1.
“They’re difficult to defend because we can’t hide anybody defensively. They have so many guys,” McDermott said. “You know, Lewis is playing at a high level. Lindsay has not shot it great as of late, but we all we know what he’s capable of. And (Devin) Askew’s playing at a really high level. Nik’s third foul is what started (their comeback) in the first game.”
Nik Graves picked up his third foul early in the second half of that one as he struggled against the Wildcat backcourt. The Jays initially went with Ty Davis in his place, and even experimented with Dix, Swartz and Fedor Zugic on the floor together for awhile.
Inside, Villanova is led by 6’10” center Duke Brennan, who averages 12.0 points and 10.6 rebounds per game. And though his offensive rebounding percentage has come down to Earth a little over the last month (he was grabbing 19.1% of missed shots before the first matchup, a number that has dropped to 16.6%), he remains one of the best offensive rebounders in the country. He scored 16 points with 12 rebounds (seven offensive) in the first meeting. But despite all that, the Jays outrebounded Villanova 39-30, including 13-12 on the offensive glass, and second chance points were tied 11-11.
The Wildcats have taken 45.5% of their shots from three-point range (40th most in D1, and second most in the Big East behind the Jays), made 36.3% of those shots (51st overall, tied for 2nd in the league with CU), and 37.5% of their total points have come via the three-pointer (27th most, second in the league behind CU).
The concern is that Creighton’s defense has regressed significantly since that first meeting, dropping from 41st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency the morning after that game to 121st heading into the rematch. One wrinkle we might see: Jasen Green and Owen Freeman on the floor together. WBR’s Matt DeMarinis, still on the mend but easing his way back into analyzing the Bluejays, posted this breakdown of some moments in Wednesday’s game where Freeman made a huge impact.
“We actually talked about it as a staff today. I think we’ll see a little bit more of them on the floor together,” McDermott said. “You know, the issue is Hudson’s played pretty well, too. Isaac had a great game two games ago. So, it becomes a little tricky to find those minutes when those other guys are playing well.”
Meanwhile, the preparation for Villanova is happening while Josh Dix prepares to bury his mom. The wake was Thursday night, and the funeral was Friday; as you’d expect, the entire Bluejay family was there to support him. He’s expected to play Saturday but will do so after an extremely challenging couple of days.
“That’s what I’m most worried about. I know we’ve got a game Saturday and I know it’s important to a lot of people. It’s important to me too,” McDermott said. “But it’s not as important as making sure we get through (Friday) the best we can. For these guys, for Josh, we’ll do the best we can. They’re all dealing with something they’ve never dealt with before.”
Tip: 1:30pm
Venue: CHI Health Center Omaha
TV: FOX
Announcers: Kevin Kugler and Nick Bahe
In Omaha: Cox channel 10 (SD), 1010 (HD); CenturyLink Prism channel 42 (SD), 1042 (HD); DirecTV 42; Dish Network 42 or 5203
Outside Omaha: Your local FOX affiliate
Streaming Fox Sports app and website
Radio: 1620AM, 101.9FM
Announcers: John Bishop and Ravi Lulla
Streaming on 1620TheZone.com and the 1620 The Zone mobile app
Simulcast on SiriusXM channel 384 as well as on the SiriusXM App
Live Stats:
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Tyler Perkins continues to cement his place as one of the Wildcats’ pillars. The Penn transfer was at the center of the rally that lifted the Wildcats past the Golden Eagles Tuesday night, scoring 22 points to go with eight rebounds. He’s scored in double figures in each of the last eight games, averaging 18.0 points and 6.9 rebounds in that span. Villanova is 21-4 over the last two seasons when he scores in double figures (84.0%).
Acaden Lewis had 15 points and five assists in Villanova’s win on Tuesday. In his last four outings – all Villanova victories – Lewis is 25-of-42 from the field (59.5%), including 6-of-14 from distance (52.9%) while averaging 16.0 points and 6.3 assists per contest.
Creighton has been outrebounded by 2.2 caroms per contest in Big East play, but the Jays have not won the board battle in any of its last 10 league contests. In fact, the last time Creighton won the rebound battle came on Jan. 7 at Villanova, when CU owned a 39-30 edge on the glass.
Regular-season sweeps over Villanova have been rare. The Bluejays have won both regular-season games against the Wildcats just twice previously, doing it in 2013-14 before repeating the feat last season.
Wednesday at DePaul, the Jays made 14-of-27 shots (51.9 percent) from deep. Creighton entered that game with an 82-4 mark under Greg McDermott when shooting 50 percent or better from three-point range, and had been 75-1 since Dec. 11, 2011. Creighton’s 82 wins when shooting 50 percent or better from deep since 2010-11 trail only Gonzaga’s 83 such victories and is tied with Arizona’s 82.
Creighton has won four straight in the series to narrow Villanova’ all-time lead to 19-12. The teams have split 12 meetings in Omaha.
Each of the last five meetings have been decided by seven points or less, and with three of those games having the road team win by exactly two points and another seeing the road team win by four points.
Creighton is 13-9 all-time when playing on Valentine’s Day. Fourteen years ago on Feb. 14, 2012, Creighton shot a Missouri Valley Conference record 77.5 percent (31-of-40) in a road win at Southern Illinois not to mention a school-record 85.7 percent shooting (12-for-14) from three-point range.
Enjoy the blurry, decidedly-non-high-def highlights of that game as televised by KM3!
Villanova is favored by 3.5 in Vegas, and KenPom predicts a three point Wildcat win. The odds favor that happening, certainly, but if the Jays can once again exploit the middle of Villanova’s drop coverage and keep from getting destroyed in the paint on the other end, who knows? They might be able to pull the upset with Ryan Kalkbrenner and Baylor Scheierman in attendance on Alumni Weekend.
Jays 74, Wildcats 71