A year ago Providence, en route to a regular season Big East title, was dismissed by a lot of pundits as a fluke because their analytics and metrics didn’t line up with their record. They were the single “luckiest” team in America according to KenPom, winning 16.4% more games than expected based on their numbers. It was a scarlet letter that Friars fans (understandably) bristled at. After all, who wants to have their success dismissed as mere luck?
Flash forward a year, and Creighton finds themselves on the opposite end of the spectrum. They’re the third-unluckiest team in America according to that same metric — KenPom says they’ve won 17.2% *fewer* games than expected.
Much like 2021-22 Providence, the 2022-23 Bluejays’ record doesn’t line up with their analytics and metrics. Boasting an offense ranked 27th in adjusted efficiency and a defense ranked 31st in adjusted efficiency against the third-toughest schedule in D1, they have a 9-8 record. A team with their numbers, against that schedule, would be expected to be 12-5.
With that said, at some point Creighton is going to have to actually start winning games instead of merely piling up gaudy analytics that paint a different picture than their record does. If they can, having those gaudy stats against the third-toughest schedule out of 363 D1 teams can start working in their favor when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. If they can’t?
Let’s not talk about it.
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The latest brutal stretch in a season full of them, Creighton plays the last of three games against ranked teams in the span of eight days on Saturday. Following losses at #4 UConn and #12 Xavier, they host #19 Providence on Saturday. Notably, it will be their seventh Quad 1 game out of the 18 they’ve played — and the first to happen in Omaha.
The Friars come to town riding a nine-game winning streak, their longest since 1989, and are undefeated in Big East play at 6-0. It’s impressive on its own, but even moreso because they’ve done it during what could have been a total rebuild. Ed Cooley was tasked with replacing all five starters from their Sweet 16 team a year ago, and returned just three players.
Among those three, grad senior Jared Bynum was expected to lead the way. He was a preseason first team All-Big East honoree after being the Sixth Man of the Year winner last season, where he led the team in scoring in conference games, averaging 15.6 ppg and shot a team-best 46.5 percent (33-71) from behind the three-point arc in league play. Moving into a bigger role this year as starting point guard, he’s averaged 9.1 points and 4.4 rebounds per game while playing through injuries — he suffered a right leg injury in mid-December at Seton Hall, re-aggrivated it at Marquette, but missed no time. An abdominal injury against UConn was finally too much, and after playing just nine minutes against the Huskies he missed the game against St. John’s. He’s listed as questionable for the game Saturday.
If he can’t go, fellow returnee Alyn Breed is likely to get the starting nod. “Not having Jared (Bynum), we seemed a little bit out of sorts offensively,” Cooley said after the St. John’s game. “We put (Breed) in a tough spot because he’s been more of a combo guard than a point guard this year, but he’s somebody who has embraced the moment and prepared.”
Thankfully he has a lot of help. The backcourt trio of Breed, Noah Locke, and Devin Carter combined for 53 of the Friars’ 83 points in the win over St. John’s.
Carter was once again big on Saturday, finishing with 19 points, five rebounds, and five assists. Entering Saturday, he was averaging 16.4 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 3.2 steals, and 1.6 blocks in league play — all while shooting just shy of 44% from deep. He also knocked down a pair of free throws with five seconds left with the Friars ahead by just a point.
Locke made 5-of-8 from beyond the 3-point arc against St. John’s last weekend, and was 3-of-6 from long range against UConn. The graduate transfer from Florida is shooting 45% (14-31) from distance in Big East games. It’s notable, though, that in two prior road games at Marquette and DePaul, he had a combined 13 points in two games.
Inside, 6’8” senior Ed Croswell averages 12.8 points and 7.5 rebounds per game. He had 13 points and 13 rebounds in the win over UConn, bullying his way through, over, and around the Huskies’ taller post players.
And then there’s Kentucky transfer Bryce Hopkins, who could barely get on the floor for John Calipari and looks like a candidate for Big East Player of the Year under Ed Cooley. He’s averaging 16.0 ppg. and 9.1 rpg., and has pretty consistently come up huge when they’ve needed someone to be “the guy.” He had a ridiculous 29 point/23 rebound line in a double-overtime win over Marquette, and 27 points in the win over UConn where he made 13—of-15 from the free throw line.
- Tip: 1:00pm
- Venue: CHI Health Center Omaha
- TV: FS1
- Announcers: Jeff Levering and Dickey Simpkins
- In Omaha: Cox channel 78 (SD), 1078 (HD); CenturyLink Prism channel 620 (SD), 1620 (HD)
- Outside Omaha: FS1 Channel Finder
- Satellite: DirecTV channel 219, Dish Network channel 150
- Cable Cutters: Available on all major streaming platforms
- Streaming on the Fox Sports app and website
- Radio: 1620AM, 101.9FM
- Announcers: John Bishop and Taylor Stormberg
- Streaming on 1620TheZone.com and the 1620 The Zone mobile app
The Friars have started Big East play 6-0 for the first time ever, and have won nine consecutive games for the first time since the 1988-89 season (when they had 13 consecutive wins).
In conference play, the Friars have allowed opponents to make a measly 23.5% from three-point range, ratcheting up their perimeter defense to absurd levels.
Of the 14 players on Providence’s roster, seven have come via transfer.
The three Big East teams to beat Creighton this season are a combined 16-4 in league play, while CU’s victories have come over teams who are a combined 7-13 in conference action.
Baylor Scheierman had a season-best 25 points at No. 12 Xavier on Wednesday. It was the second 20-point game of the season and 29th of his career when you count his three seasons at South Dakota State. In his last game at South Dakota State last season, he had 18 points and 10 rebounds while playing all 40 minutes against Providence in the NCAA Tournament.
Creighton is eighth in the country in fewest fouls per game and per BartTorvik.com, ranks second in defensive free throw rate (free throw attempts / field goal attempts). Providence, on the other hand, is second in the country in free throws made per game and ranks ninth nationally in free throw rate.
Providence leads the all-time series, 18-13 and have split 12 meetings in Omaha. Since Creighton joined PC in the Big East in 2013, the Friars have won 12-of-21 contests at all sites.
Creighton and Providence have made a habit of playing close games in Omaha in the previous eight seasons. Six of the last seven meetings were decided by nine points or less, with five of those decided by four points or less at the end of regulation. In Providence’s eight previous games inside CHI Health Center Omaha, three of them have featured a go-ahead basket in the final 10 seconds.
On January 14, 2009, Creighton defeated Southern Illinois 73-72 in overtime, a game the Salukis felt they’d won twice — CU rallied in the final seconds of both regulation and overtime to topple them.
After leading by eight at halftime, CU trailed 61-57 with 1:16 to play in the game. P. Allen Stinnett made a free throw to cut the difference to three, and then Cavel Witter stripped the ball away from Kevin Dillard at half court as he attempted to run time off the clock. Witter raced downcourt for a layup to make it 61-60 with 24.9 seconds left, and then Dillard answered with a pair of free throws after being fouled to extend the game.
Trailing 63-60 with 10 seconds left, Witter took a desperation three-point attempt and was fouled by none other than Kevin Dillard. Witter sank all three free throws — each more tense than the last — as a sold-out CenturyLink Center held its collective breath. Bluejay nemesis Bryan Mullins then launched a desperation 35-footer at the buzzer that hit the front of the rim; had it gone in it would have counted and won the game.
A rough patch in OT, featuring two turnovers and four straight possessions with missed shots, led to SIU taking a 69-65 lead with 1:03 left. And when Witter was whistled for a charge on the Jays’ next possession, it seemed once again like the Salukis were headed for the win. Josh Dotzler came up with a huge steal on the inbounds pass, and fed Stinnett for a three to cut the lead to 69-68. After another SIU turnover, Booker Woodfox came off a pick and sank a three-pointer to give the Jays a 71-69 lead with 21 seconds left.
After a pair of free throws from Kenton Walker, CU led 73-69, and they’d need every last one of those points because Mullins launched a shot that was incredibly similar to the one he’d missed to end regulation (and to the game-winner he’d made at the horn in 2007) — a 40-foot heave that went in as the buzzer sounded to make the final score 73-72.
The Bottom Line:
ESPN’s BPI gives Creighton a 79.3% chance of victory, and Creighton is a five-point favorite in Las Vegas. KenPom agrees and has the Jays winning 76-71.
It’s a little early to say this is a must-win game, but this qualifies as a “really, desperately need to win” game. The Jays will, but it’ll be nerve-wracking.
Creighton 73, Providence 70