A year ago, Creighton came into the NCAA Tournament as a six-seed who had gone 4-4 over their last eight games, picking up four wins over teams who were not in the NCAA Tournament and three losses to teams who were. And their most recent game was an 82-60 blowout loss to Xavier in the Big East Tournament semifinals. Then they turned the page and began a run to the Elite Eight a week later.
This year, Creighton won seven of eight to end the regular season, including home wins over #1 UConn and #5 Marquette and road wins at Xavier, Butler and Villanova. Over those eight games — six of them Quad 1 games — Creighton shot 50.6 percent from the field, made 11.4 three-pointers per game, and drained 79.1 percent of its free throw attempts. Individually, Ryan Kalkbrenner (18.6 ppg.), Trey Alexander (18.5) and Baylor Scheierman (18.3) all averaged at least 18 points per game during that stretch. But in the Big East Tournament, they crashed to Earth. Against Providence, the Jays were 6-of-26 from three-point range, including a ghastly 3-of-16 in the first half. Their 23.1% shooting percentage from three was tied for their third worst of the season.
And so despite finishing the regular season on a heater, Creighton enters the 2024 NCAA Tournament in much the same way they did a year ago: coming off a disappointing loss in the Big East tourney. That blowout to Xavier was a footnote in 2023, forgotten by most and ultimately insignificant because of what followed. It’s March Madness where legacies are ultimately forged, and the moment CU has played all year for is finally here: the NCAA Tournament. Their first opponent: the Akron Zips.
Prior to winning three games in three days to win the MAC Tournament and earn the league’s automatic bid, Akron had lost four of their previous six games, including back-to-back losses to Eastern Michigan (#325 KenPom) and Western Michigan (#304). Limping into the conference tourney, they received not one but two gifts from Kent State. First, the Golden Flashes upset regular season champ Toledo in the first round. Then, in the title game against Akron they were leading by one point with five seconds to play, and fouled intentionally thinking they were behind. Hopefully Kent State gets a nice thank you card from the Zips, or at least an appreciative text message.
The Zips are a scrappy, feisty, veteran team who starts four seniors and a junior. Their roster ranks 22nd on KenPom in experience, with 54.6% of their minutes returning from a year ago. As you’d figure from a team that old, they don’t beat themselves in the traditional ways: they average just 8.6 turnovers per game (or on 17.2% of their possessions, 194th in D1), they keep opponents off the glass (their opponents average an offensive board on 25.5% of missed shots, 46th in D1 and well below the average of 29.0%). And they’re solid at the free throw line, making 72.4%.
Though no power conference team would schedule Akron, they loaded up on good mid-majors in the non-conference, facing a non-conference slate that ranked 42nd toughest in D1 according to KenPom. They lost to a pair of NCAA Tourney teams in Utah State and Drake, and split games with a pair of NIT teams (losing to UNLV, and beating Bradley.)
Stylistically, they look to grind games to a halt with an adjusted tempo of 65.9 (268th in D1) and an average possession length of 18 seconds (291st). They primarily play man-to-man defense and mix in some drop coverage principles on occasion, and that defense has been tough on three-point shooters: their three-point defense is 13th best in the country, holding opponents to 30.0% shooting. But it seems to be through a mix of good closeouts, good on-ball defense, and luck, not through preventing teams from taking the shots — their opponents have taken 36.8% of their shots from three-point range (ranking 167th). Compare that to, say, Creighton’s drop coverage defense, whose opponents have shot a similar 32.2% from deep. CU runs teams off the line and stops them from taking the shot altogether, as their opponents have taken just 27.2% of their shots from three.
The Zips are led by two-time MAC Player of the Year Enrique Freeman, who is also a member of the All-MAC Defensive Team and All-MAC Tournament Team. He was the MVP of the MAC Tournament, and was named MAC Player of the Week eight times. He earned Honorable Mention All-American honors from the Associated Press this week, and is one of five finalists for the Karl Malone Power Forward of the Year Award (along with CU’s Baylor Scheierman, among others).
Averaging 18.6 points, 12.9 rebounds, 1.6 assists and 0.8 steals per game, the 6’7″ Freeman does a lot of everything. Yes, he shoots a lot (taking 24.3% of his team’s shots when he’s on the floor, and using 27.9% of his team’s possessions). But that’s what you want from a player of his caliber. He had 30 double-doubles in 34 games.
He had 24 points, 21 rebounds and seven blocks in 39 minutes in a MAC semifinal win over Ohio, and a 17/7/4 line in the title game. Freeman shot 62.5% on two-point shots (197-of-315), with a whopping 68.5% of those shots coming at or near the rim according to Hoop-Math.com. Those numbers are indicative of a player who posts up a lot, and catches the ball deep on the block a lot, which he does — and when teams collapse on him in the paint, he’s a really good passer that often kicks it out to open shooters. And for good measure, Freeman occasionally takes a three-pointer himself, shooting 36.4% on threes (16-of-44).
Freeman isn’t alone. Synergy data shows that Akron posts up on 16.5% of possessions, ranking in the 99th percentile nationally. Ali Ali, a 6’8″ forward who joined Freeman as a First Team All-MAC selection, also gets the ball in the paint a lot. Unlike Freeman, his midrange game is where he does more damage; just 23.2% of his shot attempts come at the rim, though he converts at an absurd 75.0% rate on those shots. 39.5% of his shots are midrange two’s, which he makes at a solid 50.5% clip. Most of those are shots Ali creates himself off the dribble, where he gets downhill into the paint and pulls up for a 10-12 foot jumper. According to Hoop-Math.com, only 21.8% of his midrange two’s have had an assist, meaning the other 79.2% were Ali just creating his own shot.
If Creighton’s drop coverage gets torched by someone firing up 12 foot jumpers, it’s likely to be Ali. A matchup nightmare in the MAC where lineups tend to be smaller, Ali is also a decent enough shooter from the perimeter for defenses to respect his shot (30-of-100). He played three years for Akron before transferring to Butler last year; he then came back to Akron for one final season. So Creighton is familiar with him — he scored 10 points on 3-of-9 shooting inside the arc and 1-of-5 outside in two games against the Jays last season.
At 6’9″, Sammy Hunter is the tallest player on the roster, making him the de facto center even though he plays more like a stretch-four. 62.5% of his total shots have been threes, and he’s more comfortable taking long jumpers than he is banging in the paint. He has the second-most three-point attempts (146) and the most made threes (54) on the team, shooting 37.0%. Hunter has had nine separate games this season with 3 or more made three-pointers. One of those came in the MAC semifinals, where he made 4-of-7 from long range. The mere threat of Hunter getting hot from three-point range stresses any defense, but will put particular pressure on Creighton’s drop coverage.
He’s attempted just 94 shots inside the arc, is not a great shooter from two-point range (44.7%), and draws very little contact (just 29 attempted free throws for the season). Given his size, normally Ryan Kalkbrenner would draw the defensive assignment on Hunter, but if Kalkbrenner spends his afternoon chasing Hunter around the perimeter that’s going to leave the rim unprotected for someone like Freeman or Ali to exploit. It wouldn’t surprise me if Baylor Scheierman or Mason Miller slide over to guard Hunter, at least part of the time, with Kalkbrenner tasked with guarding Freeman in the post.
Point guard Greg Tribble is a fifth-year senior, all at Akron, who can score from all three levels. He’s their best three-point shooter by percentage (28-of-68, 41.2%), and hit the game-winning free throws to win the MAC Tournament after Kent State’s mistake of a foul in the final seconds. He averages 10.5 points and 2.2 assists per game. The latter number is indicative of Akron’s style of play offensively; they’ve had an assist on just 48.8% of their made baskets, with most of their scoring coming on iso or one-on-one plays where their guy beats the opponent, versus using ball movement to create space for someone else. Tribble is really good at dribble penetration into the lane, and then pulling up from 5-6 feet away with a teardrop jumper. His 57.7% shooting percentage at the rim is outstanding for a player his size.
Freeman, Ali, Tribble and sixth-man Mikal Dawson were on Akron’s 2022 team who took #4 seed UCLA to the wire in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. UCLA had all five starters back from their Final Four team the year before, and were 13.5 point favorites. But Akron successfully forced their grind-it-out tempo on the Bruins, their defense held UCLA to 3-of-15 shooting to begin the game, and they led for 27 minutes in a game that featured four ties and 10 lead changes. UCLA didn’t take control until there were two minutes to play, when Tyger Campbell finally put the Bruins ahead for good. Freeman fouled out of that game after logging 14 points and 10 rebounds; Ali (five points, two rebounds) and Tribble (five points, eight boards, zero assists against three turnovers) struggled.
It’s a game Akron has used as motivation all season, and particularly this week. They were a possession or two away from pulling off the upset two years ago, and their seniors are determined to finish the job if they have the chance on Thursday.
Creighton’s players feel the same way, with the memories of their March Madness near-miss even fresher in their minds. Trey Alexander, Ryan Kalkbrenner and Baylor Scheierman were all on the floor during the final play of the Jays’ 2023 season, an Elite Eight loss where San Diego State made the winning points at the free throw line after a foul was called with 1.2 seconds left in a tie game. However much motivation Akron is channeling from their 2022 loss to UCLA, Creighton draws at least as much — maybe more — from their loss in the Elite Eight a year ago.
One of these teams is going to get redemption for that heartbreak. Here’s hoping it’s the Bluejays.
Tip: 12:30pm
Venue: PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh, PA
TV: TNT
Announcers: Andrew Catalon, Steve Lappas and Evan Washburn
In Omaha: Cox channel 36, CenturyLink Prism channel 1108/1109
Satellite: DirecTV channel 246, Dish Network channel 138
Streaming at NCAA.com/MarchMadnessLive
Creighton Radio: 1620AM, 101.9FM
Announcers: John Bishop and Nick Bahe
Streaming on The Varsity Network app, Powered by Learfield
National Radio: Westwood One
Announcers: Scott Graham and Jordan Cornette
Simulcast on SiriusXM channel 210 or 203, and on the SXM App
Streaming at WestwoodOneSports.com/Madness
- Akron will be making its sixth overall NCAA Division I Tournament appearance after qualifying in 1986, 2009, 2011, 2013, and 2022. They’re winless in five previous trips to the tourney.
- Other players to look out for: 6’5″ guard Mikal Dawson, who’s 41-of-152 (27.0%) from three-point range this year. He’ll shoot them, so the Jays have to hope he stays in a slump (he was 1-of-11 in the MAC tourney). 6’2″ guard Shammah Scott will also shoot a fair amount despite poor metrics; he’s 20-of-78 (25.6%) for the year from deep, and was 2-of-7 in the MAC tourney.
- Freeman is 39th in the country in blocked shots (60), 47th in blocks per game (1.76), 22nd in field goal percentage (.593), 17th in field goals made (224), 30th in free throws made (166), first in total rebounds (439), second in defensive rebounds per game (9.32), 17th in offensive rebounds (3.59), and first in rebounds per game (12.9). And with 30 double-doubles this season, he’s one away from tying the NCAA record set by David Robinson of Navy in 1986.
- Creighton is making its 25th NCAA Tournament appearance all-time, and 16th in the last 26 years. The Bluejays are 18-25 all-time in NCAA action, including a 12-12 record in its first game. Last season Creighton defeated NC State, Baylor and Princeton to reach the Elite Eight, where it fell by one point to eventual runner-up San Diego State.
- Creighton has won at least one NCAA Tournament game in 2021, 2022 and 2023. That makes CU one of seven teams in the country to have a win in each of the last three NCAA Tournaments, joining Arkansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, Houston, Kansas and UCLA. Both Arkansas and UCLA missed the tourney this year. The only other time that Creighton has won an NCAA Tournament game in consecutive seasons came in 2012, 2013 and 2014, also under Greg McDermott.
- Ryan Kalkbrenner will become Creighton’s second player to appear in four NCAA Tournaments when he takes the floor for this one, joining Kyle Korver. He’s also three blocks shy of 100 for the season, and four shy of 300 for his career. Speaking of records: Baylor Scheierman has 99 made threes this season, one away from joining Korver and Ethan Wragge as the only Jays with 100 or more made threes in a season.
Creighton is 3-1 all-time against Akron. The home team has won every meeting, and the teams have never met on a neutral floor. The teams met most recently on Dec. 3, 2016 when Creighton topped the Zips 82-70 in Omaha.
The Jays blasted out to a 12-3 lead with Marcus Foster scoring 11 points on 4-4 shooting. Foster wound up scored 27 points on a night where he wasn’t shooting the ball all that well from three-point range, going 2-8 from outside. He was 9-11 on two-point shots, scoring on an array of mid-range jumpers, drives to the rim and dunks, and was the biggest beneficiary of Maurice Watson’s then-arena record 13 assists.
The only other time Creighton was a three-seed, they also began their tourney on March 21, beating Louisiana Lafayette 76-66.
With 12:15 to play in the game, 14-seed and heavy underdog Louisiana had taken a 50-46 lead, thanks to star Elfrid Payton. Greg McDermott, who almost never calls timeout to stem the tide, usually preferring to let his senior-laden group figure things out, signaled for time. He needed a moment. Heck, Creighton fans needed a moment. I was a nervous wreck, and judging from the reactions on Twitter and on camera shots of fans in San Antonio, I wasn’t alone.
As you’d expect from this veteran club, they didn’t share that sentiment. First, Grant Gibbs nailed a jumper to cut the deficit to 50-48. Then they got a defensive stop, and Jahenns Manigat grabbed the rebound. He pushed tempo and got the ball to Ethan Wragge, who buried — and I mean buried — a three-pointer to give Creighton the lead at 51-50. Another defensive stop followed, this time with Doug McDermott securing the rebound, and then Wragge hit another three. It wasn’t the first time back-to-back #WraggeBombs have been dropped, but they’ve never come at a more opportune time. Gibbs completed the all-senior 10-0 run with two free throws — perhaps the most unbelievable part of the entire run given the team’s struggles at the line on Friday — and the Jays led 56-50. They’d not trail again.
The Bottom Line:
Creighton is favored by 12.5 in Vegas, and by 12 on KenPom. ESPN’s BPI gives them 91.1% odds of victory. Anything can happen in March — look no further than Akron’s near-upset of UCLA in a similar 4/13 game two years ago, where they were 13.5 point underdogs. But for this 3/14 game to go Akron’s way, they’re going to have to win some portion of the game decisively (someone unexpected to get hot shooting while the Jays have an uncharacteristically bad shooting night themselves, for example).
But while there was some buzz about Akron being a spoiler two years ago, there’s very little of that this time outside of Ohio. And there’s a reason for that: against a Bluejay team who ranks 24th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 13th in adjusted offensive efficiency (Akron ranks 96th and 163rd in those categories), the Zips just need too many things to break their way to pull off the upset.