Wednesday night against Xavier, Austin Swartz scored a career-high 27 points, making 7-of-13 from three-point range and 3-of-4 inside the arc. He also had seven rebounds, four assists and a steal in just 22 minutes. He became the first Bluejay to score 20 or more in a game this season, and in doing so, Swartz shattered the Creighton record for points in a Big East debut which had been shared by Doug McDermott and Ryan Hawkins (19).
Since sitting out the Oregon game, he’s scored 66 points in four games (11, 16, 12 and 27) after scoring eight total in the first six games. He’s made 16-of-38 (42.1%) from three-point range and 9-of-14 inside the arc (64.2%) over the last four games, too. It’s come out of nowhere in terms of this season, but it’s worth remembering Swartz’ pedigree before committing to Miami out of high school: he was a consensus top-50 recruit in the nation (#46 overall per 247 Composite; #47 overall recruit per ESPN). He ranked third among all players in scoring on the 2023 Nike EYBL circuit, averaging 21.0 points per game. And he picked Miami over offers from Virginia Tech, UConn, Georgia, Indiana, Clemson, Florida State, Illinois and Houston.
His commitment from the transfer portal was lower-profile than most of the Jays’ other additions, given that he averaged just 5.9 points and 1.0 rebounds in 29 games for the Hurricanes as a freshman. But coming out of high school Swartz was one of the highest-rated prospects in the country, and now that he’s settled in to the Jays’ system, he’s emerged as one of their best players.
That has to sting a little for Marquette fans, given Shaka Smart’s very public anti-transfer portal stance. For better or worse, he’s opted to build his roster with recruits who are committed to the old-school process of developing and improving in one place out of high school. When those players actually develop and improve, it’s hard to argue with his process — and Marquette’s success the last three years has been amazing.
But when players don’t improve or even regress, and you don’t supplement with transfers that could help? You get the mess they find themselves in this year. Marquette is one of the two worst teams in the Big East, depending on your opinion of DePaul so far, and arguably the most disappointing given that they were picked to finish fifth in the preseason poll.
It’s only “arguably” because the Jays are on the disappointing list, too, and at least at surface level these two teams have fairly similar resumes. Creighton lost convincingly to Gonzaga, Baylor, Iowa State and to their in-state rival Nebraska. Marquette lost by 23 to Indiana, by 20 to Purdue, by 20 to their in-state rival Wisconsin, plus losses to Maryland, Dayton and Oklahoma. But where CU has wins over Oregon and at Xavier and has some semblance of momentum, all five of Marquette’s wins are Q3/Q4 wins and they’re coming off a home loss to Georgetown. And they’re in a pretty fragile spot, having lost four of five with the one win coming in overtime, 75-72, against a Valparaiso team they were expected to beat handily. These appear to be two teams headed in opposite directions.
Their problem can be boiled down to the fact that they can’t score efficiently and they can’t stop opponents from doing it. Marquette is only shooting 30.8% from three-point range, 275th worst in D1. They’re also only shooting 53.4% at the rim, which ranks 340th. The excellent Marquette blog Paint Touches shared this damning stat: MU is currently shooting 17.1% on contested spot-up threes (or .508 PPP), which is the worst mark in all of D1. It’s worse than that, though. They rank 1,443 out of 1,465 teams in D1, D2, D3, NAIA, NCCAA and USCCA. So at basically any level shy of the NBA, there’s only 22 teams who shoot worse on contested spot-up threes.
Defensively, their adjusted defensive efficiency ranks 74th, which isn’t terrible — but using T-Rank’s sortable data, you can remove their Q4 games from those numbers. Do that, and their defense ranks 138th against everyone else, and that’s not a winning formula with their offensive struggles. It’s also the most surprising of their woes, because defense was supposed to be their strength.
Individually, they’re led by 6’5” senior guard Chase Ross who averages 17.4 points, 4.2 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game. Ross is their engine and the guy everything runs through offensively. He can and will shoot threes, and though he’s not been great (16-of-55, 29%) this year, that skill is there — he made 36% each of the last two years. He’s much better when he attacks downhill and finishes through contact. Ross is on pace to make huge improvements on two-pointers (47-of-87 through 12 games, after making 79-of-147 a year ago) and at the free throw line (67-of-87 so far, and 86-of-114 last year). He’s made the huge star leap between his junior and senior seasons that everyone expected him to — their struggles have little to do with Ross, and if anything they’d be even worse if he hadn’t.
6’0” freshman Nigel James Jr. is their only other player averaging in double figures at 11.3 points per game and a team-best 3.8 assists. He, too, has been terrible from outside — James has made 6-of-26 (23.2%) of his threes. He prefers to drive into the paint, though finishing (47.7% at the rim) and shooting (25% from three-point range) are not strengths either. He’s a capable ball handler who has assisted on 32.1% of their points when he’s been on the floor — but he’s also susceptible to turnovers, coughing it up on 15.9% of possessions.
6’8” Royce Parham moved into the starting lineup against Georgetown, and had four points, five rebounds and a block. He’s averaging 9.3 points and 4.8 rebounds per game, but has been inconsistent. He had a big game against Purdue (19 pts) and disappeared in others, scoring three against Maryland, five against Dayton and six each against Albany, Central Michigan and Valpo. And he had some serious flaws in his game: He’s only shooting 27.9% from three, he doesn’t get to the line much (3.4 fouls drawn per 40 minutes), he’s a black hole with the ball (taking 23.1% of the team’s shots when he’s on the floor) and he’s struggled on defense.
6’11” senior Ben Gold had started every game before that, and the stretch five is a pure shooter who pulls opposing bigs out of the paint. However, he is not a very physical player and is not a rim protector; he struggles to rebound in traffic. He’s basically the exact same player he was a year ago, which is a perfectly fine player — just not one that took the kind of season-over-season leap Marquette needed him to.
6’9” Caidin Hamilton averages 4.8 points and 4.3 rebounds per game, starting at center and mostly struggling to compete against opponents with good centers of their own.
On the wing, 6’4” freshman Adrien Stevens is averaging 6.3 points and 2.0 rebounds, while 6’5” Zaide Lowery averages 8.1 points and 2.9 boards.
For Creighton to be successful, they need to take care of the ball, because Marquette’s half-court defense is average and their offense relies on easy transition buckets to get into a rhythm. They’ve gotten a steal on 12.9% of possessions (29th best) and turned opponents over on 20.2% oof possessions. Meanwhile, they need to dominate Gold in the paint and corral offensive rebounds to get easy second-chance points.
Tip: 7:30pm
Venue: CHI Health Center Omaha
TV: NBCSN (Available on YouTubeTV)
Announcers: John Fanta, Nick Bahe and Jordan Cornette
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Live Stats:
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Sophomore forward Damarius Owens entered Wednesday’s Big East opener
with 23 total points in his first nine appearances this season and concluded the night against Georgetown with a career-best 15-point effort. The Rochester, N.Y., native finished 5-of-11 from the floor, knocked down each of his four free throw a empts and also grabbed a personal-best seven rebounds in 27 minutes of action off the bench. Owens’ previous career best was a 14
Marquette’s point guard duo of junior Sean Jones and freshman Nigel James Jr. saw extended action together on the court against the Hoyas and combined for a productive ve night at the offensive end.
The duo combined for 23 points, nine assists and a pair of blocked shots and shot 10-of-19 from the floor. Neither player scored in the team’s previous loss at No. 6/6 Purdue in the non-conference finale
Creighton’s 31 assists at Xavier were its second-most ever in a game under Greg McDermott, trailing only the 32 vs. USC Upstate on Dec. 20, 2017 in a 116-62 win. Nationally, Creighton became the first road team with 31 or more assists in a Power 5 conference game since Washington at California on March 3, 2005
Creighton owns a 129/62 assist/turnover ratio (2.08) in its six wins this year, compared to a 62/67 (0.93) ratio in its five losses.
Josh Dix owns 17 assists and three turnovers in the wins compared to 15 assists and nine turnovers in CU’s losses. Ty Davis has nine assists and just one turnover since moving into the CU starting line-up on Dec. 13.
Austin Swartz had 27 points in 23 minutes of Wednesday’s road win at Xavier. He’s just the seventh Bluejay in the last 20 seasons with 25+ points in 25 minutes or less, and joined Cole Huff as one of two Bluejays with a game of 27+ points in 23 minutes or less since 1991-92.
Saturday will be the 102nd all-time meeting between Creighton and Marquette in a series that dates back to 1923. Creighton has played 327 different schools in its history, but Marquette is just the third different opponent that Creighton has faced 100 times or more, joining its 153 meetings vs. Drake and its 100 match-ups with Wichita State.
Marquette leads the 102-year old series with Creighton by a 60-41 margin, but Creighton has won nine of the past 14 meetings. Eighteen of the last 23 meetings have been decided by eight points or less. Creighton is 13-12 against MU since the teams became Big East rivals, but the road team is 12-12 in those match-ups (CU is 6-6 in Milwaukee; MU is 6-6 in Omaha), with CU winning the lone Big East Tournament meeting in New York City in 2022.
Over the years, no lead has been safe in Omaha. In 2023, the Jays blew an eight-point second half lead and lost 73-71. In 2020, they blew a nine-point second half lead and lost 89-84. In 2019 they had the ball leading 85-82 with 0.8 seconds and still found a way to lose, a seemingly impossible thing to do given the circumstances; they lost 106-104 in overtime. In 2018, they blew a 16-point lead and lost 90-86. And on and on.
Last February, they blew an 11-point lead midway through the second half, and then Jamiya Neal carried them across the finish line to ensure ’2025’ wasn’t added to that list of horrible memories from past Marquette visits to Omaha. Neal scored, assisted or otherwise directly contributed to (via defensive rebounds that created the possession) 16 of the Jays’ final 22 points from the 10:04 mark on. The only ones he didn’t have a hand in? Zugic’s four points scored when he subbed in for Neal after picking up his fourth foul, and a pair of free throws by Ashworth to seal the win with 33 seconds left.
On December 20, 2020 Creighton beat UConn 76-74 in overtime. James Bouknight was amazing, scoring 40 points on 13-of-24 shooting, drawing 11 fouls with all of his drives to the rim. But the rest of the Huskies were atrocious: his teammates combined to shoot 11-for-43 overall and 2-for-18 on three-pointers. And the Huskies had 13 turnovers to just nine assists.
Protecting a two-point lead, UConn’s R.J. Cole missed two straight free throws with 11 seconds left to leave the door open just a crack. The Jays drew up a play for Damien Jefferson. It was nothing fancy; they simply got the ball to him and let him go to work. Jefferson drove to his right, rose up, and sank a jumper to force OT.
DAMIEN. JEFFERSON.
ONIONS FOR @BLUEJAYMBB! TO OVERTIME WE GO. #BIGEASThoops pic.twitter.com/NvrjQfjQgn
— BIG EAST MBB (@BIGEASTMBB) December 20, 2020
Then in the extra period, their defense went to work. After UConn briefly led 68-66 in the first minute of OT, they missed seven consecutive shot attempts and had a shot clock violation. With their defense holding UConn in check, the Jays pulled away by driving the ball directly into the defense and scoring at the rim, and made 6-of-8 at the line.
Vegas favors the Jays by 7.5 and ESPNs BPI gives them 80% chance of victory. KenPom predicts a 10 point Jays win with 82% probability.
Creighton needs to win this one by double digits to avoid giving back some of the metric gains they made at Xavier. I think they will.
Creighton 84, Marquette 74