Nelson vs. Kalin
Creighton junior forward Sarah Nelson should be the Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year.
I write that sentence because I’m fearful I will not be able to write “Creighton junior forward Sarah Nelson IS the MVC Player of the Year.” And this entire article is based on that fear, hoping to educate those that care to read and care to consider that there is more to the MVC Player of the Year than scoring a lot of points.
Scoring 12.1 points per game, Nelson ranks 12th in the MVC in scoring and does not even lead her own team in that category. Soon-to-be named MVC Freshman of the Year Marissa Janning tops the team with 13.6 points per game. And it is those scoring numbers that may very well be the reason she does not win the MVC Player of the Year. However, when it’s all broken, I hope it’s clear to see that one cannot go wrong voting for the 12th-leading scorer in the MVC to win the league’s top honor.
Nelson leads the league in field-goal percentage (.506), blocked shots (41) and assist-turnover ratio (1.9). She’s second in the league in minutes played (34.0), sixth in the league in rebounding (7.9 pg) and assists (3.6 pg), and eighth in the league in 3-point accuracy (.372) and double-doubles (5).
Wow Rob those are great numbers! Clearly she should win this thing, right? I’m glad you asked, not clearly at all in fact. There’s a super senior in Cedar Falls who has already once been the MVC Player of the Year and would like to add another trophy of Jackie Stiles to her mantel. That’s right, UNI’s sixth-year senior Jacqui “Grandma” Kalin may very well prevent Nelson from grabbing the honor.
Okay Rob, tell me about Kalin. That’s what I’m going to do. Please, read on.
Remember that scoring angle I started with? That’s where Kalin has the edge and what might attract the votes that Nelson deserves. The Panther point guard leads the MVC with 19.6 points per game, including 21.0 per game in Valley play. She leads the league AND the NCAA, shooting 94.9 percent at the free-throw line and her 73 3-point field goals on the year lead the league. Those three league-leading categories are equal to Nelson’s three league-leading statistics (FG%, blocks, A-TO ratio).
While Kalin outranks Nelson in those statistical categories, the Bluejays’ candidate for Player of the Year outranks UNI’s candidate in rebounding, field-goal percentage, three-point percentage, steals, blocked shots, assist-turnover ratio and minutes. Yes, you read that correctly, the Bluejay forward shoots it more accurately from long range, has more steals and a better assist-turnover ratio than the UNI point guard. In fact, Kalin barely edges Nelson in assists on the year. The player who has the ball in her hands for nearly every UNI play has 111 assists in 29 games (3.8 pg), compared to a post player for the Bluejays who has 102 assists in 28 games (3.6 pg).
Beyond Kalin’s solid numbers, she’s also a great story – a sixth-year player returning from a medical redshirt season to lead her team. She won the award in 2010-11 and she’s UNI’s all-time leading scorer, giving her the career accolades that should not influence the vote, but human nature inevitably lends itself to looking beyond this year’s numbers.
Nelson, the pride of Omaha Westside, has four games this year with at least 10 points, 8 rebounds and 5 assists. She’s scored in double figures 18 times, had eight rebounds in a game 16 times and six assists in a game eight times.
Kalin, a Sioux City, Iowa native, has twice had games with at least 10 points, 8 rebounds and 5 assists this season. She’s scored in double figures in all but two games (CU held her to 9 points in Omaha), had eight rebounds in a game six times and six assists in a game seven times. She also owns a pair of double-doubles, including a point-assist double-dime.
No one has attempted more shots in the MVC than Kalin. Her 416 attempts are 159 more than Nelson has attempted this year. Why? Simply put, without Kalin, UNI does not have much of an offense. The Bluejays are a far more balanced team on offense and that does not require Nelson to put up shots at the frequency of her POY competitor. Should voters fault Nelson for not having a higher scoring average, simply because she’s surrounded by better players than Kalin?
Another major factor in Player of the Year voting, which benefited Kalin when she won the award two years ago, is team success. A Bluejay win on Saturday against last-place Southern Illinois would give Creighton at least a share of the MVC title – a Wichita State win at Missouri State would split the championship. No matter UNI’s outcome on Saturday, the Panthers will play as the fourth seed in next week’s Valley tournament.
Kalin was the best player on the best team in 2010-11, as UNI ran away with the Valley title by virtue of its 17-1 record. Kalin, however, was not the best player in the league that year. That distinction belonged to Casey Garrison of Missouri State. But the Lady Bears finished 12-6 and the voters, including myself, rewarded Kalin for leading her team to the Valley crown.
Might voters be swayed by Creighton’s league crown and UNI’s distant finish when considering who to vote for? Might they vote for Wichita State’s team leader Jessica Diamond? Not likely. When I started to research and write this story, I had every intention of making a three-way comparison between Nelson, Kalin and Diamond, but the more I looked into Diamond’s stats I couldn’t twist enough numbers in her favor. This is a two horse race between Nelson and Kalin.
Both players are very deserving, I wouldn’t be put off or upset if Kalin wins, I just hope Nelson gets the consideration (and votes) she deserves from the media, sports information directors and head coaches of the MVC.
| Kalin | Nelson | |
| Games | 29 | 28 |
| PPG | 19.6 | 12.1 |
| RPG | 5.0 | 7.9 |
| APG | 3.8 | 3.6 |
| TO | 67 | 53 |
| A-TO Ratio | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| FG% | 41.8 | 50.6 |
| 3FG% | 37.2 | 37.3 |
| FT% | 94.9 | 68.6 |
| 3FG | 73 | 31 |
| Blocks | 2 | 41 |
| Steals | 31 | 36 |
| Double-Doubles | 2 | 5 |
| 10+ point games | 27 | 18 |
| 8+ rebound games | 6 | 16 |
| 6+ assist games | 7 | 8 |
| 10+ point, 8+ rebound, 5+ assist games | 2 | 4 |
Senior Day
Saturday’s game at D.J. Sokol Arena will mark the end of the line for Creighton seniors Ally Jensen and Jasmin Corbin. Jensen has started every game over the last two years, while Corbin suffered a career-ending ACL injury against Kansas in the fourth game of this season. Corbin has opted to not apply for a medical redshirt and will not return for a potential fifth season in 2013-14.
Jensen will finish her career ranked fifth in school history in three-point field goals made. The native of Ames, Iowa, has drilled 210 three-pointers in her career, starting 80 of the 123 career games she’s played in. She enters senior day with 788 career points. A true three-point specialist, in addition to making 210 of 264 field goals inside the three-point line, she actually shoots better from beyond the arc than she does inside of it. As wild as it sounds, she shoots just 29 percent (54-186) from inside the three-point line, while shooting 35.7 percent from three-point range (210-588) in her career.
Corbin appeared in 96 games, all off the bench, during her injury-shortened career. She too liked to shoot the deep ball, as 41 of her 52 career field goals were three-pointers. The Millard West graduate finished her career with 178 points.
The Game
Not much to focus on when Southern Illinois comes to town. The Salukis (4-24, 1-16 MVC) have had a season to forget, entering Saturday on a 15-game losing streak. In fact, the last 10 losses have all been in double figures. SIU head coach Missy Tiber quit on Jan. 21 after her team lost by 48 points to Illinois State. Interim head coach Adrianne Harlow has yet to register a win for the last-place Salukis.
On the flip side, Creighton (22-6, 14-3 MVC) enters Saturday looking to end the regular-season on a seven-game winning streak. The Jays have had to grind out their last two victories, beating Drake by one last weekend and needing overtime to get past Evansville 74-69 on Thursday night. A victory on Saturday would clinch Creighton’s first regular-season MVC title since 2002-03.
A win would also be Creighton’s 11th straight at home and give the Jays a 9-0 home mark in Valley play for the first time at Sokol and the first time since the 2002-03 campaign.
A loss to SIU and its 321 RPI would eliminate Creighton from NCAA at-large contention. Creighton enters Saturday with an RPI of 25, good enough to earn an at-large bid in ESPN’s most recent bracketology. (But take that projection with a grain of salt, this bracketology is poorly researched. Placing Creighton, Nebraska and South Dakota State at one sight is never going to happen as each of those teams played each other in the regular-season.)
Hope to CU there, but if you can’t make it, listen to myself and Brad Burwell call the action on 1180 AM in Omaha or online.