Hello everyone and welcome to the first 2012 edition of “The Bracketeer.”
A few guidelines for everyone looking at the bracket and how I came to my projections (thru games of January 8):
- I tried to seed teams as if it were actually Selection Sunday. So some teams may seem a bit high or a bit low compared to what others have presently. However, based on the numbers to date, that’s where I believe they would be seeded when you factor in SOS, Top-50 wins, Top-100 wins, etc.
- Since we are early in the process, there will be several teams that appear in the bracket that have below .500 records in their conference. Although the common thought that below .500 in your league means no at-large bid, since 2000, nine such teams (all from BCS leagues) have received an at-large nod. Most conferences are only a handful of games into league play (some haven’t even played a game yet), so some sub-.500 teams will be in the field of 68 presently.
- As the NCAA selection committee is supposed to attempt to do, I avoided match-ups that would involve rematches from this season and teams from the same conference potentially playing each other (generally until the Sweet 16 or later). Also, teams cannot play in their home arena (e.g., Creighton can’t play in the “Omaha Region”, Dayton can’t play at the “Dayton First Four site”). If necessary, the committee in the past has allowed for a “one-seed” movement from a team’s “true” seed to help in putting together a bracket.
- I’ve used information from the various RPI/efficiency sites out there (Realtime, Warren Nolan, KenPom) in compiling my somewhat educated guesses.
- Below the bracket, I’ve also listed the “Last Four In”, “First Four Out” and “Next Four Out”. I’ve also done a brief capsule on each multi-bid conference.
Now for the bracket projection (January 9)
| East (Boston) | Midwest (St. Louis) | |
| 1 Syracuse (Big East) | 1 Ohio State (Big Ten) | |
| 16 Tex. Southern (SWAC)/Maine (Am. East) play-in | 16 Wagner (Northeast)/Lamar (Southland) play-in | |
| at Pittsburgh | at Columbus | |
| 8 Illinois (Big Ten) | 8 Marquette (Big East) | |
| 9 San Diego State (MWC) | 9 Long Beach State (Big West) | |
| 5 Dayton (Atlantic 10) | 5 Alabama (SEC) | |
| 12 Florida (SEC) | 12 North Carolina State (ACC) | |
| at Louisville | at Albuquerque | |
| 4 Kansas State (Big 12) | 4 UNLV (MWC) | |
| 13 Oral Roberts (Summit) | 13 Davidson (SoCon) | |
| 3 Connecticut (Big East) | 3 North Carolina (ACC) | |
| 14 Buffalo (MAC) | 14 Denver (Sun Belt) | |
| at Pittsburgh | at Greensboro | |
| 6 Vanderbilt (SEC) | 6 Missouri (Big 12) | |
| 11 Northwestern (Big Ten) | 11 Mississippi State (SEC) | |
| 7 St. Mary's (WCC) | 7 Purdue (Big Ten) | |
| 10 Memphis (C-USA) | 10 Northern Iowa (MVC) | |
| at Portland | at Omaha | |
| 2 Michigan State (Big Ten) | 2 Georgetown (Big East) | |
| 15 George Mason (Colonial) | 15 Bucknell (Patriot) | |
| West (Phoenix) | South (Atlanta) | |
| 1 Baylor (Big 12) | 1 Duke (ACC) | |
| 16 Montana (Big Sky) | 16 Campbell (Big South) | |
| at Albuquerque | at Greensboro | |
| 8 Xavier (Atlantic 10) | 8 Southern Mississippi (C-USA) | |
| 9 Wichita State (MVC) | 9 California (Pac 12) | |
| 5 Louisville (Big East) | 5 Temple (Atlantic 10) | |
| 12 Wisconsin (Big Ten) | 12 Stanford (Pac 12)/Marshall (C-USA) | |
| at Portland | at Columbus | |
| 4 Gonzaga (WCC) | 4 West Virginia (Big East) | |
| 13 Iowa State (Big 12)/Colorado State (MWC) | 13 Harvard (Ivy) | |
| 3 Indiana (Big Ten) | 3 Kansas (Big 12) | |
| 14 Belmont (Atlantic Sun) | 14 Cleveland State (Horizon) | |
| at Nashville | at Omaha | |
| 6 Creighton (MVC) | 6 Michigan (Big Ten) | |
| 11 LSU (SEC) | 11 St. Josephs (Atlantic 10) | |
| 7 Virginia (ACC) | 7 Murray State (OVC) | |
| 10 Iona (MAAC) | 10 BYU (WCC) | |
| at Nashville | at Louisville | |
| 2 Seton Hall (Big East) | 2 Kentucky (SEC) | |
| 15 Nevada (WAC) | 15 Norfolk State (MEAC) | |
LAST FOUR IN: Stanford, Colorado State, Marshall, Iowa State
FIRST FOUR OUT: Mississippi, Virginia Tech, Missouri State, Texas
NEXT FOUR OUT: Saint Louis, New Mexico, Central Florida, Minnesota
MULTIPLE BID LEAGUES: Big Ten (8), Big East (7), SEC (6), Big 12 (5), ACC (4), Atlantic 10 (4), C-USA (3), MVC (3), MWC (3), WCC (3), Pac 12 (2)
In looking at the bracket, a couple of things jumped out:
- Presently, the bubble is very weak. In my initial review of teams, I came up with 55 NCAA Tournament-worthy teams. As we all know, it is a field of 68. So if there were lots of disagreement with some of the teams I have in the field (Stanford, Iowa State and Marshall, for example) you would get no argument from me.
- Mid-majors grabbed 11 at-large bids in this projection. Based on the down year’s for a few of the power conferences (Pac 12, ACC and SEC), I could see that number holding true come Selection Sunday. Eleven at-large bids would be the most for the Non-BCS leagues since 2004.
Next bracket projection: Monday, January 23
Conference Capsules:
Instead of the usual “Lock” “In” “Bubble” “Out” type of designations for potential tourney teams, I’ve decided to do something a little different each time I do a bracket projection. This edition will use quotes from the movie Jerry Maguire (yes, I’m recycling from three years ago).
“You had me at hello”: Teams with this designation are in the field of 68 – for now.
“Help me, help you”: Not in presently, these teams need a little help.
If there is no designation classifying teams for a conference, then the automatic bid winner is the only projected team to make it from that conference. Enjoy.
Atlantic Coast Conference
“You had me at hello”
Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Virginia
“Help me, help you”
Virginia Tech
Duke: One of the four #1-seeds with computer numbers (RPI: 2, SOS: 3) and a 5-2 record vs. the Top 50 to support that claim
North Carolina: Come March, they will likely be higher than the #3-seed they are listed at currently
Virginia: The Cavaliers computer numbers are not flattering (RPI: 39, SOS: 190), but 14-1 with a Top 50 win (Michigan) puts ‘em solidly in the NCAA field
North Carolina State: The Wolpack has computer numbers (RPI: 41, SOS: 25) of a team that could be wearing home whites in its opening NCAA Tourney game. However, N.C. St. is 2-4 vs the RPI Top 100 with zero Top-50 wins and one road win on the season. Like I said above, the bubble is REALLY weak at this point, so Mark Gottfried’s squad is in by the skin of their teeth
Virginia Tech: The Hokies lone game against North Carolina State on March 4 in Blacksburg, Va., may end up being a “BracketBuster” of sorts if both teams are 8-7 heading into the last ACC regular season contest. Va. Tech, 1-4 vs. the RPI Top 100, has some work to do before being included in the NCAA field
Atlantic 10 Conference
“You had me at hello”
Dayton, St. Joseph’s, Temple, Xavier
“Help me, help you”
Saint Louis
Dayton: This was one of the more difficult teams to seed as the stats (RPI: 17, SOS: 6, 3-2 vs. Top 50) are very strong. However, they have a couple of very troubling losses to Miami-Ohio and Buffalo – by 29! I still think the Flyers will be one of the more difficult “outs” and a team you certainly don’t want to be matched up with come bracket time
Temple: Its win over Duke last week will be a nice highlight on an already solid tournament resume…
Xavier: In spite of the Musketeers struggles since “The Brawl” vs. Cincinnati, they have everything you would look for, on paper, in an NCAA Tournament team. If Xavier can regain its early season form, they could be a team to watch in March
St. Joseph’s: Despite a few stumbles in games that will be looked at with a fine tooth comb come Selection Sunday, the Hawks appear to have just enough on their resume to get in
Saint Louis: Although they won a watered-down 76 Classic back in November, the Billikens are lacking in overall numbers that would impress the selection committee. They will have chances to improve their cause with games against Temple (Wednesday) and at Xavier (Jan. 25) in the next few weeks
Big East Conference
“You had me at hello”
Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Seton Hall, Syracuse, West Virginia
“Help me, help you”
n/a
Like the past few seasons, the top half of the Big East appears to be among the elite of college basketball. Unlike the past few seasons, the mid-pack teams are mediocre to awful. Any change to the seven teams above representing the Big East in the NCAA Tournament between now and Selection Sunday would be a huge surprise.
Syracuse: #1 in both RPI and SOS. An easy choice as the #1 overall seed
Seton Hall: One of the great surprises of the young season is the play of the Pirates under second year head coach Kevin Willard. They have computer numbers that scream #1-seed (RPI: 3, SOS: 2). They did get drilled by Syracuse in their Big East opener, so I’ll go with a #2-seed for now (way higher than most people have them). Herb Pope has been one of the most underrated Big East players the last couple of years, and he is now thriving in Willard’s system
Georgetown: The Hoyas five wins vs. the RPI Top 50 are tied for the most nationally
Connecticut: The defending national champions should have no trouble finding its way back into the “Field of 68”. However, the young Huskies are struggling to find consistency
West Virginia: I’m not sure the Mountaineers are as good as their computer numbers say they are (RPI: 14, 3-2 vs. Top-50). Like him or not, Bob Huggins can coach – and he has West Virginia off to a 3-1 start in Big East play…
Louisville: Rick Pitino has a ton of talent once again, and this year’s Cardinals are 7-2 against the RPI Top-100
Marquette: The stats say Marquette should be a top 4-seed (RPI: 19, SOS: 15). The one game I saw the Golden Eagles play this year they got clobbered by Vanderbilt in Milwaukee. I can’t get that game out of my head. As much as I have Seton Hall seeded higher than most others, I have Marquette lower than most – but no doubt, safely in the NCAA field
Big Ten Conference
“You had me at hello”
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
“Help me, help you”
Minnesota
Ohio State: If the season ended today, they would get the benefit of the doubt from when they were without Jared Sullinger for two games and likely grab the remaining #1-seed (after Syracuse, Duke and Baylor)…
Michigan State: Hard to believe this team is where its at after season opening losses to North Carolina and Duke. Don’t get me wrong, there’s no shame in losing to either of those perennial powers, but the manner in which they lost looked like they could be headed for another so-so season in East Lansing. Since those losses, the Spartans have rattled off 14 straight wins and Tom Izzo’s squad appears headed toward another top 4-seed come March…
Indiana: Back in November, I said this would be a make-or-break season for Tom Crean and the Hoosiers. So far, it has been all “make”. Indiana is off to its best start since 1976 – when they went a perfect 32-0 under Bob Knight…
Michigan: The Wolverines have one of the best guard tandems in all of college hoops in sophomore Tim Hardaway, Jr. and freshman Trey Burke…
Illinois: I’m not sold on the Illini as of yet. They do have one nice win against Gonzaga and played a close neutral court game against Missouri. They also were drilled by UNLV and struggled mightily against St. Bonaventure, Illinois State and Nebraska – winning all three of those contests. They say good teams win those type of games (ones where you don’t play your best), so I guess the Illini are a good team, but I need more proof over the next few weeks to keep them solidly in my NCAA field…
Purdue: Even on one leg, Robbie Hummel continues to amaze. The Boilermakers have an RPI of 36, are 3-2 vs. the RPI Top 50, and off to a 3-1 start in league play. Purdue isn’t playing the lock down defense they have the past few years, but they seem a likely 8-9 seed candidate when March rolls around…
Northwestern: The Wildcats win over Seton Hall back in November looks better by the day. They have some troubling losses to Baylor and Ohio State (not so much the losses, but the margin by which they lost). The margin for error still seems thin and it likely always will be until they reach their first NCAA Tournament…
Wisconsin: What in the world is going on with the Badgers? With an already mentioned weak bubble and the fact that they still have two Top 50 wins to their credit (BYU and UNLV), the Badgers are in for now, barely. They will need to right the ship soon or chances are they will miss the dance for the first time under the direction of Bo Ryan…
Minnesota: I only list the Golden Gophers because they still have solid computer numbers. In reality, their season was over when stud forward Trevor Mbakwe was lost for the season with a torn ACL…
Big 12 Conference
“You had me at hello”
Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri
“Help me, help you”
Texas
Baylor: The Bears are impressive. An RPI of 4 and a 5-0 mark vs the RPI Top 50 could have fans in Waco making travel plans for New Orleans the first weekend of April…
Kansas: I didn’t think the Jayhawks would be nearly as good as they have been this season with all they lost from last year’s team. It just goes to prove that some programs rebuild. While ones like KU reload…
Kansas State: I also didn’t think Frank Martin’s squad would be as salty as they have been through the first half of the season. The Wildcats get after it on both ends of the court. KSU’s 4-2 mark vs. RPI Top 50 competition shows that it can beat the nation’s elite…
Missouri: If NCAA bids were handed out based on the “eye-test” only, it’s hard to imagine Missouri not being a top 4-seed. But outside of wins against not-as-good-as-expected California and Notre Dame, Mizzou has zero quality to its resume aside from a narrow neutral site win against Illinois (who I’ve mentioned above that I’m enamored with)…
Iowa State: The Cyclones being included in the “Field of 68” is really indicative of how weak the bubble is right now. I would argue with no one who told me they weren’t an NCAA worthy squad – but I would also likely find many holes with the team you would suggest to replace them. A lesser of evils selection for certain…
Texas: Presently, the Longhorns appear too far away from any type of NCAA at-large consideration (RPI: 73, SOS: 117). After hosting Texas A&M on Wednesday, they face the following gauntlet: @Mizzou, @KSU, KU, Ia. St., @Baylor, Mizzou (all games are against the RPI Top 50). We should have a much better indication of where the Longhorns will stand on Selection Sunday by the end of that six game stretch…
Conference USA
“You had me at hello”
Marshall, Memphis, Southern Mississippi
“Help me, help you”
Central Florida
Southern Mississippi: I’ll be the first to admit that I have not seen one second of Golden Eagles basketball this season. However, with the following numbers (RPI: 12, SOS: 39, 2-2 vs. Top 50), how are they not in?
Memphis: The Tigers computer numbers are solid (RPI: 34, SOS: 9), but they are 0-5 against the Top 50. They do at least have four wins vs. the Top 100, and they do certainly pass the much debated “eye test”…
Marshall: See my thoughts regarding Iowa State. Same goes here…
Central Florida: Even though they have a very nice neutral site win against Connecticut back in November, the Golden Knights overall resume (RPI: 72, SOS: 194, 6 wins vs. RPI 200+ teams) is lacking…
Missouri Valley Conference
“You had me at hello”
Creighton, Northern Iowa, Wichita State
“Help me, help you”
Missouri State
Creighton: A 3-0 mark vs. the RPI Top 50 has the Bluejays well on their way to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2007. Creighton’s overall SOS (96) will likely hinder its chances of getting a top 4-seed come March, but should certainly pack their home whites for its opening game…
Wichita State: Although the Shockers would be easily into the field if today were Selection Sunday, they may rue the day they lost to Temple back in November. The margin for WSU is much thinner due to that loss and its teams like Temple that WSU will likely be compared to when deciding the last few at-large berths. The Shockers, who have an impressive win over UNLV to hang its hat on, are off to a 3-1 start in league play and appear to be among the MVC’s top teams…
Northern Iowa: The computer numbers are fantastic for the Panthers (RPI: 22, SOS: 10). They also have two RPI Top 50 wins (Iowa State and Colorado State). When looking at UNI’s resume, though, it is a lesson in how to beat the RPI. They have played exactly one game against RPI 200+ competition. Aside from the computer numbers, the overall content of their season is not eye-popping. However, they will be in the conversation come March based on the above numbers alone. They are in my bracket for now, but I need to see more from the Panthers to keep them there…
Missouri State: The Bears have a very nice win at Creighton. They also have some missed opportunities in losses to West Virginia and St. Mary’s. Win just one of those games and they are likely into the NCAA field if the season ended today. The computer numbers are bubble-like (RPI: 57, SOS: 27), so I have the Bears on the outside looking in for now.
Mountain West Conference
“You had me at hello”
Colorado State, San Diego State, UNLV
“Help me, help you”
New Mexico
UNLV: The Rebels have been impressive through the first half of the season – including wins against North Carolina, Illinois and California (all by double digits). UNLV is safely into the NCAA field and will likely be in the conversation for a top 4-seed…
San Diego State: The Aztecs had an early season win (Arizona) that is turning out not to be as impressive as once thought. SDSU does also have Top 50 wins against Cal and Long Beach State, but its overall SOS of 132 could hurt them in March. Safely in for now, but needs to do more before Selection Sunday…
Colorado State: You could take what I wrote about Northern Iowa and insert it here to apply to the Rams as well. Difference is that Northern Iowa beat Colorado State earlier this season. I have the Rams in for now based on strong computer numbers and no bad losses. They likely need to go 4-2 when facing the trio of UNLV, San Diego State and New Mexico in MWC play to receive real consideration come March…
New Mexico: Woeful computer numbers (RPI: 64, SOS: 213) and not even a single game played against Top 50 competition has me doubting the 13-2 Lobos. I need to see a win against someone decent before moving UNM closer to the good side of my bracket…
Pac 12 Conference
“You had me at hello”
California, Stanford
“Help me, help you”
Arizona
This year’s Pac 12 will be a true test to the statement that the Selection Committee seems to make every year – “Conferences don’t get bids, teams get bids…” Come March, with the lack of opportunities within the conference to get quality wins (a.k.a. wins vs. Top 50 teams), the Pac 12 likely shapes up to be a one-bid league – two at the absolute most. We’ll likely find out nine weeks from now what type of BCS bias exists, if any, when the field of 68 is announced…
Did you know? The MAC has more RPI Top 50 non-conference wins (five) than the Pac 12 (three)…
California: The Golden Bears have far and away the best computer numbers of any Pac 12 team (RPI: 38, SOS: 64). Their best win – Denver. They also lost at a neutral site to Missouri – by 39! In for now, but ready to kick them to the curb…
Stanford: In spite of hideous stats (RPI: 76, SOS: 192), the Cardinal has two Top 50 wins (Colorado State and North Carolina State) and gave current #1 Syracuse all they could handle on a neutral court back in November. In, because they showed they could beat a couple of quality teams, but also on thin ice…
Arizona: The Wildcats have lost to everyone of significance they have played this season (Gonzaga, San Diego State, Mississippi State and Florida). No doubt they have talent and could turn things around in a wide-open Pac 12, but they are barely a bubble team at this point…
Southeastern Conference
“You had me at hello”
Alabama, Florida, Mississippi State, Kentucky, LSU, Vanderbilt
“Help me, help you”
Mississippi
Kentucky: Okay, we all know that the Wildcats are an extremely talented bunch, but they don’t quite scream #1-seed either. No doubt “Kentucky” will flash across the screen on Selection Sunday. What seed they receive could be an interesting debate…
Alabama: For my money, this is the second best team in the SEC behind Kentucky.
Vanderbilt: Tough team to gauge as they have a couple of questionable home losses to Cleveland State and Indiana State. They also have Final Four talent – as they displayed in a thrashing of Marquette 11 days ago. No doubt, they are in the NCAA field. Which Commodore team will show up is the question…
LSU: Now we head into bubble central, the 4-6 spots in the SEC. LSU doesn’t have a lot to get excited about on its resume (RPI: 71, SOS: 103). But they do have what few bubble teams do have – two RPI Top 50 wins (Marquette, Mississippi). It could be an in or out scenario for the Tigers on a daily basis between now and March…
Florida: In my opinion, the Gators are the most overrated team in all of college basketball. Seriously. Who have they beaten? Well I’ll tell you – no one. They do have close losses to both Ohio State and Syracuse that I suppose you could apply the “eye test” to, but I need to see more from this team before feeling really good about a more solid NCAA seed. In for now, but I’m watching your team carefully Billy Donovan…
Mississippi State: Now to the second most overrated team in the country, the Bulldogs of Mississippi State. They at least have a Top 50 win to their credit (West Virginia). I’d really like to leave the Bulldogs out of my bracket as the computer numbers say I should (RPI: 56, SOS: 106). But I also realize that if today were Selection Sunday, there’s no way a 13-3 team from the SEC gets left out. In for now, but I’m watching your team carefully, too, Rick Stansbury…
Mississippi: Computer numbers say to at least consider the Rebels (RPI: 50, SOS: 48). Of Mississippi’s 10 Division I wins, only one is against Top-100 competition. That says to me the Rebels are on the outside looking in…
West Coast Conference
“You had me at hello”
BYU, Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
“Help me, help you”
n/a
Gonzaga: Their two best wins are barely Top 50 wins (Xavier – 47, Oral Roberts – 49). However, the Bulldogs overall resume is solid and they are easily into this year’s NCAA field…
St. Mary’s: Actually, the Gaels resume is very similar to conference rival Gonzaga except for the overall SOS (Gonzaga – 12, St. Mary’s – 101). We’ll get to find out which of those two teams are better on Thursday when the Bulldogs and Gaels meet in Moraga, Calif…
BYU: Nothing really to note of significance except for decent computer stats (RPI: 42, SOS: 62). The Cougars likely need a couple of wins against the top two teams (Gonzaga and St. Mary’s) in the league and zero bad losses to maintain its spot in the NCAA field. The Cougars also have a key non-league match-up remaining at Virginia Tech (Jan. 25), which could go a long ways in determining their NCAA at-large chances…
The One-Bid Leagues
The following conferences (20 of them), pretty much no matter how you dissect it, will provide only one team to the 2012 NCAA Tournament… A top 5 of “could get an at-large if they don’t get the league automatic bid” would be – Davidson (SoCon), Harvard (Ivy League), Iona (MAAC), Long Beach State (Big West) and Murray State (OVC)…
- America East – Maine
- Atlantic Sun – Belmont
- Big South – Campbell
- Big Sky – Montana
- Big West – Long Beach State
- Colonial – George Mason
- Horizon – Cleveland State
- Ivy league – Harvard
- MAC – Buffalo
- MAAC – Iona
- MEAC – Norfolk State
- Northeast – Wagner
- Ohio Valley – Murray State
- Patriot – Bucknell
- Southern – Davidson
- Southland – Lamar
- Summit – Oral Roberts
- Sun Belt – Denver
- SWAC – Texas Southern
- WAC – Nevada
Thanks for reading. The next edition of “The Bracketeer” will run on Monday, January 23