Our resident Bracketologist, The Bracketeer, has returned to give his predictions for the 2015-16 season. He is a long time contributor to White & Blue Review and matches up with some of the best bracketologists in the nation. Follow him all season long as Creighton looks to get back to the NCAA Tournament.
A few guidelines for everyone looking at the bracket and how I came to my projections (games through January 31):
- I tried to seed teams as if it were actually Selection Sunday. So some teams may seem a bit high or a bit low compared to what others have presently. However, based on the numbers to date, that’s where I believe they would be seeded when you factor in SOS, Top-50 wins, Top-100 wins, etc. With most teams still having half of their regular season games remaining, there are a lot of “incomplete” resumes this early in the process
- Since we are early in the process, there will be some teams that appear in the bracket that have below .500 records in their conference. Although the common thought that below .500 in your league = no at-large bid, since 2000, 10 such teams (all from “power” conferences) have received an at-large nod. Most conferences are only a handful of games into league play – so some teams with sub-.500 league records will be in the field of 68, presently.
- As the NCAA selection committee is supposed to do, I attempted to avoid match-ups that would involve rematches from this season and teams from the same conference potentially playing each other (generally until the Sweet 16). Also, teams cannot play in their home arena (e.g., Providence can’t play in the “Providence Region”). If necessary, the committee in the past has allowed for a “one-seed” movement from a team’s “true” seed to help in putting together the bracket.
- I’ve used information from the various RPI/efficiency sites out there in compiling my somewhat educated guesses but will mostly site RPI, KenPom and RPI Forecast.
- Below the bracket, I’ve also listed the “Last Four In”, “First Four Out” and “Next Four Out”.
Now for the bracket projection (February 1)…
LAST FOUR IN: Clemson, Florida State, St. Joseph’s, George Washington
FIRST FOUR OUT: LSU, UCLA, Georgetown, Wisconsin
NEXT FOUR OUT: Butler, Tulsa, Gonzaga, Texas Tech
MULTIPLE BID LEAGUES: ACC (10), Pac-12 (8), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), Atlantic 10 (4), Big East (4), SEC (4), American (2)
Next bracket projection: Monday, February 8
5 Things About This Week’s Projection
1. Not too much movement on the top 4 seed lines, although I did move North Carolina up to a #1-seed and dropped Kansas to a #2-seed (based on the loss at Iowa State). In past years, the four #1’s have been pretty clear cut or have been down to five teams for those four spots. I currently have Virginia as a #3-seed in this week’s projection. You could certainly make a case for the Cavaliers to be on that top-seed line. The theme for this season is that the race for the NCAA Championship is wide open. As it pertains to seeds, there’s not as great a difference in quality as in previous years between a “#1” and a “#3 or #4”.
2. I’ve previously written about whether or not Clemson is bracket-worthy this season. On the positive side, the Tigers 6 wins vs the RPI top 50 trails only Virginia (8), Iowa (7) and Iowa State (7). On the negative side, the Tigers played the absolute worst non-conference schedule (330 non con SOS) of any team in consideration for an at-large bid. Add to it, they’ve done most of their winning at home (2-6 road/neutral record). However, those 6 quality wins really do stand out. I have Clemson as one of my last four teams in for this week’s projection.
3. Although we know upsets will happen when conference tournament play begins, its not looking like a good year for the non-power leagues as far as at-large berths go. Presently, the only teams that would likely get in via an at-large invitation if they were to lose their non-power league tournament are – Dayton (Atlantic 10) and Wichita State (MVC) as the Shockers will likely get consideration for the games that Fred Van Vleet missed earlier in the season. Monmouth (MAAC), VCU (Atlantic 10) and Cincinnati (American) have also put themselves in position for at-large consideration should they falter in their league tourney.
4. I doubt the Selection Committee takes “star power” into consideration when making its field of 68, but it would be a shame to see Ben Simmons and LSU reduced to the NIT. As far as the Tigers’ résumé, it lacks a lot of punch (1-3 vs top 50, 2-6 road/neutral, 82 RPI). However, to steal a line from Jay Bilas (I believe he was the first one to use this term), they pass the “eye test”. They also play up to their competition. I have LSU in my “first four out” as they just haven’t done enough on paper, but my eyes tell me they are NCAA-worthy.
5. From a Big East perspective, you can put Xavier, Villanova and Providence “in ink” for your bracket. XU and VU will contiue to be in contention for a #1-seed throughout the next 6 weeks. After looking like they were headed for another January-February implosion, Seton Hall has turned things around and appears to be in line for an at-large nod. Butler is doing its best “Seton Hall” impression from a year ago as they are off to a 3-6 mark in league play. The good news for Bulldog fans is that of their 9 remaining Big East games, 7 are very winnable. That would put Butler at 10-8 in the league. When you add that to the good work they did in the non-conference portion of its schedule (vs. Purdue, at Cincinnati), Butler would likely be dancing if they could get back to an above .500 conference mark. With a 6-3 mark in conference Georgetown has now made its way into “bubble” mentions. Also, the Hoyas wins against Wisconsin and Syracuse – that didn’t look so great 3 weeks ago – now are helping their résumé.
Thanks for reading. The next edition of “The Bracketeer” will run on Monday, February 8…