Our resident Bracketologist, The Bracketeer, has returned to give his predictions for the 2015-16 season. He is a long time contributor to White & Blue Review and matches up with some of the best bracketologists in the nation. Follow him all season long as Creighton looks to get back to the NCAA Tournament.
A few guidelines for everyone looking at the bracket and how I came to my projections (thru games of February 14):
- I tried to seed teams as if it were actually Selection Sunday. So some teams may seem a bit high or a bit low compared to what others have presently. However, based on the numbers to date, that’s where I believe they would be seeded when you factor in SOS, Top-50 wins, Top-100 wins, etc.
- As the NCAA selection committee is supposed to do, I attempted to avoid match-ups that would involve rematches from this season and teams from the same conference potentially playing each other (generally until the Sweet 16). Also, teams cannot play in their home arena (e.g., Providence can’t play in the “Providence 2nd/3rd round” site) or if they are the host institution (e.g, Iowa State can’t play in the “Des Moines 2nd/3rd round” site). If necessary, the committee in the past has allowed for a “one-seed” movement from a team’s “true” seed to help in putting together the bracket.
- I’ve used information from the various RPI/efficiency sites out there in compiling my somewhat educated guesses but will mostly site RPI, KenPom and RPI Forecast.
- Below the bracket, I’ve also listed the “Last Four In”, “First Four Out” and “Next Four Out”.
Now for the bracket projection (February 15)…
LAST FOUR IN: Washington, George Washington, LSU, Oregon State
FIRST FOUR OUT: Florida State, Clemson, Cincinnati, Connecticut
NEXT FOUR OUT: Stanford, Butler, Alabama, Vanderbilt
MULTIPLE BID LEAGUES: Pac-12 (8), ACC (7), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (7), Atlantic 10 (5), SEC (5), Big East (4)
Next bracket projection: Monday, February 22
5 Things About This Week’s Projection
1) Just to give you another reason as to why many feel this is as wide-open an NCAA Tournament as there has been in recent memory, my projected 1 through 4-seeds from last week’s bracket went a combined 18-13 over the last seven days.
2) For those wondering the NCAA Selection Committee priorities for choosing the 36 at-large teams, below is an in order list of what they are supposed to consider (straight from the NCAA website):
- The Quality of Wins and Losses
- Road Record
- Head-to-Head Results/Record vs Common Opponents
- Computer Metric Rankings
- Strength of Schedule
- Non-Conference Strength of Schedule
- Player and Coach Availability
3) This was by far the most dificult bracket to seed and select so far this year. If this were a final exam, I honestly wouldn’t feel overly confident that I had all 36 at-large choices. I feel there are several teams that I’ve over-seeded (Syracuse and Baylor as #7’s and Pittsburgh as a #9). Problem is, I can’t really point to any teams that I’ve under-seeded. Maybe the “bubble” really is that weak this year…
4) Three of the #1-seeds were still pretty easy to determine (Villanova, Kansas and Oklahoma). Even though Virginia lost this week at Duke on a last second shot, I moved the Cavaliers onto the #1-seed line. North Carolina, Oregon, Iowa, Xavier and Miami (FL) also were in consideration for the last #1-seed.
5) From a Creighton perspective, here’s where things stand…
The good news:
- Sole possession of 3rd place in the 4th ranked RPI conference… Since 2010, here’s how teams that have finished 3rd or T-3rd in the 4th ranked RPI league have fared as far as NCAA invites.
2015 – Michigan State, Iowa and Purdue (all went to NCAA Tourney)
2014 – Providence, Xavier and St. John’s (St. John’s went to NIT, Xavier was last four in)
2013 – North Carolina (NCAA)
2012 – Florida, Vanderbilt and Tennessee (these teams were actually tied for 2nd in the SEC with Tennessee going to the NIT)
2011 – Florida State (NCAA)
2010 – Tennessee (NCAA)
- The Jays also now have a marquee win on their résumé (Xavier).
- The Jays play in a league that has a true round-robin schedule. 3rd place is exactly as it appears to be…
- According to item #2 above, Non-Conference SOS is not as high up on the list as it has been in years past according to the NCAA Selection Committee guidelines.
The bad news:
- Even though it is less of a priority to the Selection Committee, that non-con SOS is an eyesore (287). At face value, other Big East teams have lousy non-con SOS’s as well (Providence – 194, Seton Hall – 245, Butler – 213). So why are Providence and Seton Hall somewhat comfortably into the field of 68 and Butler considered just on the outside looking in when they have similar computer numbers to the Jays? The other three teams at least have some sort of decent non-league victories to point to…
Three best RPI non-conference wins by Big East at-large contenders:
Providence – Arizona (22), Evansville (91), Rhode Island (120)
Seton Hall – Wichita State (52), Georgia (67), Mississippi (86)
Butler – Purdue (20), Cincinnati (62), Temple (63)
Georgetown – Syracuse (40), Wisconsin (46), UNC-Wilmington (65)
Creighton – Nebraska (153), Massachusetts (164), IUPUI (179)
I said a few weeks ago that 11-7 in the league would get Creighton into the at-large conversation. I also said that there had to be some quality to that 11-7 record. They made a great stride towards that with the win vs Xavier. Of the remaining five league games, CU must do the following:
- Win both of its remaining home games (Marquette & St. John’s)
- Win at least one of the three remaining road games (Butler, Providence or Xavier)
- After playing Butler on Tuesday, root for the Bulldogs to finish strongly as they could give the Jays one or two more RPI top 50 wins.
- Don’t lose in the Big East Tourney opener.
If I had a section on the bracket where I listed “next four out after the next four out”, that’s where I’d have CU, presently.
Thanks for reading. The next edition of “The Bracketeer” will run on Monday, February 22…