A few guidelines for everyone looking at the bracket and how I came to my projections (thru games of February 22nd):
- I tried to seed teams as if it were actually Selection Sunday. So some teams may seem a bit high or a bit low compared to what others have presently. However, based on the numbers to date, that’s where I believe they would be seeded when you factor in SOS, Top-50 wins, Top-100 wins, etc.
- Since we are early in the process, there will be some teams that appear in the bracket that have below .500 records in their conference. Although the common thought that below .500 in your league = no at-large bid, since 2000, 10 such teams (all from “power” conferences) have received an at-large nod. Most conferences are only a handful of games into league play – so some teams with sub-.500 league records will be in the field of 68, presently.
- As the NCAA selection committee is supposed to do, I attempted to avoid match-ups that would involve rematches from this season and teams from the same conference potentially playing each other (generally until the Sweet 16). Also, teams cannot play in their home arena (e.g., Creighton can’t play in the “Omaha Region”, Louisville can’t play in the “Louisville Region”). If necessary, the committee in the past has allowed for a “one-seed” movement from a team’s “true” seed to help in putting together the bracket.
- I’ve used information from the various RPI/efficiency sites out there in compiling my somewhat educated guesses but will mostly site RPI and KenPom.
- Below the bracket, I’ve also listed the “Last Four In”, “First Four Out” and “Next Four Out”. I’ve also done a brief capsule on each multi-bid conference.
Now for the bracket projection (February 23rd)…
LAST FOUR IN: Boise State, North Carolina State, Pittsburgh, Tulsa
FIRST FOUR OUT: Illinois, UCLA, Massachusetts, Temple
NEXT FOUR OUT: Texas, BYU, Miami (FL), Davidson
MULTIPLE BID LEAGUES: ACC (7), Big East (6), Big 12 (7), SEC (6), Big Ten (5), Pac-12 (4), Atlantic 10 (3), American (3), MVC (2), MWC (2)
Next bracket projection: Monday, March 2
In a Nutshell
The top eight teams in most bracket projections continue to cruise along. How cool would it be to have four different 1-seed vs. 2-seed regional finals? The consistency that these teams (Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Kansas, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Arizona and Villanova) have shown throughout this season makes me think this could be the year this actually happens.