Our resident Bracketologist, The Bracketeer, has returned to give his predictions for the 2015-16 season. He is a long time contributor to White & Blue Review and matches up with some of the best bracketologists in the nation. Follow him all season long as Creighton looks to get back to the NCAA Tournament.
A few guidelines for everyone looking at the bracket and how I came to my projections (February 7):
- I tried to seed teams as if it were actually Selection Sunday. So some teams may seem a bit high or a bit low compared to what others have presently. However, based on the numbers to date, that’s where I believe they would be seeded when you factor in SOS, Top-50 wins, Top-100 wins, etc. With most teams still having half of their regular season games remaining, there are a lot of “incomplete” resumes this early in the process
- As the NCAA selection committee is supposed to do, I attempted to avoid match-ups that would involve rematches from this season and teams from the same conference potentially playing each other (generally until the Sweet 16). Also, teams cannot play in their home arena (e.g., Providence can’t play in the “Providence 2nd/3rd round” site) or if they are the host institution (e.g, Iowa State can’t play in the “Des Moines 2nd/3rd round” site). If necessary, the committee in the past has allowed for a “one-seed” movement from a team’s “true” seed to help in putting together the bracket.
- I’ve used information from the various RPI/efficiency sites out there in compiling my somewhat educated guesses but will mostly site RPI, KenPom and RPI Forecast.
- Below the bracket, I’ve also listed the “Last Four In”, “First Four Out” and “Next Four Out”.
Now for the bracket projection (February 8)…
LAST FOUR IN: Clemson, Oregon State, Stanford, St. Bonaventure
FIRST FOUR OUT: Cincinnati, Connecticut, St. Joseph’s, Wisconsin
NEXT FOUR OUT: Butler, Kansas State, Vanderbilt, UCLA
MULTIPLE BID LEAGUES: ACC (9), Pac-12 (9), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), SEC (5), Atlantic 10 (4), Big East (4)
Next bracket projection: Monday, February 15
5 Things About This Week’s Projection
1. It seems like every year around this time the popular thing to say is that the bubble is “very weak”. In and of itself, this is a true statement as the teams that are on the bubble have résumés that are extremely flawed. However, this year it is even more realistic to say this as Louisville self-imposed a postseason ban on its program last week. The Cardinals, along with SMU, take away two teams that were seemingly locks to be part of the 36 at-large nods (although you could argue that SMU would be very likely to capture the American Athletic Conference’s automatic bid). In this week’s projection, take a look at the 6 vs. 11 match-ups. I would venture that none of the #6-seeds would be more than a 55% favorite to defeat the #11-seeds they are pitted against. To me, the 6 through 11 seeds look almost identical…
2. In this week’s projection, it came down to Oregon and Iowa for the final #1-seed. Both can certainly make a strong case for the top-seed line, however, this mostly came down to overall league strength. The Ducks are the best team in the #2-RPI conference while the Hawkeyes are the top squad in the #6-RPI league.
3. With less than five weeks until Selection Sunday, the above projected field will certainly change. Here are three teams that I currently have in my bracket that I don’t think will be there on March 13:
Stanford – I’ll give the Cardinal credit for playing the #1-ranked overall schedule (#37 non-con) in the NCAA. However, having lost 4 of 5 after a solid start to Pac-12 play (def. Utah and at Oregon State), Stanford will likely have to finish league play 5-3 or better. With games against Oregon, at Arizona, USC and at Washington, that seems like a tall task.
Michigan – The Wolverines somehow won 7 of their first 9 Big Ten contests without star guard Caris LeVert. Last week was rough for the Maize and Blue as they suffered home beatdowns at the hands of Indiana and Michigan State. This looks more like a team that is running on fumes (they had been playing way over their capabilities for the last month) and could really use a spark that the caliber of player like LeVert could provide. It does sound like LeVert is close to returning. If he does not, this looks more like an NIT team that did a really good job of overachieveing for a four-week stretch.
Pittsburgh – The Panthers may have built enough of a cushion with the good work they’ve done so far in ACC play (wins at Notre Dame and at Florida State), but lets take a look at their next six games…
- at Miami
- at North Carolina
- vs. Wake Forest
- at Syracuse
- vs. Louisville
- vs. Duke
I’m not sold on Pitt and I think the above stretch could end up 1-5 – which would drop the Panthers onto the “bubble” and possibly even out of most projected brackets.
4. On the flip side, here are three teams that are not in my current projection that I think will make their way into the field of 68 five weeks from now.
Butler – The big game for the Bulldogs comes on Wednesday when they play at Seton Hall. Win that contest and BU has a very good chance to finish Big East play 6-1, which would put them at 11-7 for the season. Butler looked like it regained some of its form from November/December with its wins over Georgetown and St. John’s last week.
Vanderbilt – Largely regarded as one of the top 4 teams in the SEC when the season started, the very talented Commodores have been a disappointment. They continued this trend last week – following up their nice win against Texas A&M with a complete clunker at Ole Miss. If Vandy can get on a roll (next four games should be W’s) and continue that momentum into the final two weeks of SEC play (at Florida, vs. Kentucky and at Texas A&M), they will have opportunities for résumé enhancing wins.
Wisconsin – This one is based more on the opportunities they will have to improve their résumé than their actual chances of improving. The Badgers have won 5 straight to get itself into the at-large picture. Wisconsin has eight league games remaining. Its three home games should all be wins (Nebraska, Illinois, Michigan) as should its game at Big Ten doormat Minnesota. The Badgers other four Big Ten road games are…
- at Maryland (RPI 4)
- at Michigan State (RPI 16)
- at Iowa (RPI 8)
- at Purdue (RPI 22)
If the Badgers take care of business in the games they should win and then add in one road triumph from the above four games, they will certainly make a strong case for inclusion into the field of 68. Win two or more of those games, along with winning the Big Ten games they should win, and last year’s NCAA Tournament runner-up will be dancing for the 18th year in a row.
5. Other than a bad loss by Providence at DePaul, not too much fluctuation in where the Big East stands as far as bracket projections. Of the four league teams I do have in my field of 68, all are projected to be wearing their home whites (#8-seed or better) in their first contest. I still do have Xavier as a #1-seed. I would put the Musketeers non-conference accomplishments (wins vs. Dayton, USC, Alabama, at Michigan and vs. Cincinnati) among the top 5 of teams currently in the NCAA field as well as a stellar 9-1 road/neutral record.
Thanks for reading. The next edition of “The Bracketeer” will run on Monday, February 15…