The Bracketeer is a new contributor to White & Blue Review, but a familiar face. The Bracketeer made his first appearance on Patrick Marshall’s old blog back in 2009. After a two-year hiatus, The Bracketeer has returned. Follow us in the New Year when Bluejay Banter Bracketology takes on The Bracketeer to predict the NCAA Tournament field.
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Well, here it is. Another college basketball season is upon us. Seems like just days ago that Butler and VCU were making mid-majors everywhere proud with their Final Four appearances. But alas, the regular season is about to get underway. Many experts are saying that the 2011-12 college season will be one of the most exciting in quite some time. Only time will tell if they are correct.
Only time will also tell how “The Bracketeer” fared with his preseason prognostications as to which teams will make the NCAA Tournament field of 68 (still seems weird to say). Yes, “The Bracketeer” is back after a two-year hiatus. Wish I could say I was tracking down Bin Laden and Hussein during that time, but I wasn’t. The last time I made my prognostications public (2009), I was correct on 33 of the 34 at-large teams (seems like cheating to take credit for the 31 automatic bids that everyone else got correct).
Now I can hear some of you nitpickers/fun-haters already saying “Why all the fuss this early?” To that I say, “Why not?” So, here is “The Bracketeer’s” first offering in predicting the Field of 68. I went as far as to predict the teams I feel should comprise the NCAA Tournament as well as teams that are also in the conversation for dancing in March. No projected seeds, no “are they playing here or there?” Even I can agree that type of stuff is too early to forecast in November.
Once we get into January and beyond, we’ll take a bit more of the subjective data, crunch it, and see if a little more logical sense can be made of the 2012 March Madness teams to be (with seeds and all the other mumbo-jumbo). Enjoy.
Atlantic Coast Conference (6)
“It Feels Great to Be in the Field of 68”
Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Miami (FL), North Carolina, Virginia
“It’s only November, we feel we’ll peak late”
Virginia Tech
North Carolina and Duke – enough said … Clemson brings back enough from last year’s NCAA Tourney squad that they should again make its way into the Big Dance … Florida State should also have enough for a return appearance after its Sweet 16 run a year ago, although things might be a little bumpy early in trying to replace Chris Singleton and Derwin Kitchen, the ‘Noles top two scorers from last season … Former George Mason head coach Jim Larranaga takes over a Miami (FL) team that returns four starters and nine of its top 10 scorers from a 21-win NIT team … Although Virginia returns four starters and appears to be an NCAA tourney team on paper, the Cavaliers non-league schedule is, well, cavalier. Michigan, Oregon, and George Mason are the only top 100 teams on their schedule. They could end up facing Marquette at the Paradise Jam, which would be a must-win non-league game. Otherwise, they may need to go 10-6 in ACC play for a serious look from the selection committee. I have UVA barely making the field of 68, but it is not an overwhelming endorsement … Funny thing is Virginia Tech usually is the ACC team guilty of lackluster non-conference scheduling, which is also usually followed up by head coach Seth Greenberg and his annual late February whine session as to why they aren’t considered to be solidly in the NCAA field. This year, the Hokies have bulked up their non-league slate, playing in the Preseason NIT as well as hosting Kansas State and a Jimmer-less BYU squad. Sadly for Va. Tech, they don’t have Malcolm Delaney for one more year (18.7 ppg in 2010-11, 2nd in ACC). I’ll still take February 24 as the over/under date for when Coach Greenberg begins his annual cry to “let us into the dance.”
Atlantic 10 Conference (3)
“It Feels Great to be in the Field of 68”
Dayton, Temple, Xavier
“It’s only November, we feel we’ll peak late”
George Washington, St. Joseph’s, Saint Louis
Although they hail from a “mid-major” conference, where we MVC fans know that nothing is guaranteed, you might as well plan on seeing Temple and Xavier on your 2012 brackets now … Temple returns four starters from last year’s 26-win NCAA team, while Xavier brings back three starters, including 2011 A-10 Player of the Year Tu Holloway, from its 24-victory Tourney team … Dayton gains the services of the ultra-talented former Southern Illinois point guard Kevin Dillard this season. Dillard, along with three other returning starters from the Flyers 2011 NIT squad, should help see UD make its way back into the four-letter tournament … George Washington returns an experienced team for first year head coach Mike Lonergan, who has won wherever he has coached … St. Joseph’s and Saint Louis are both young teams with a lot of talent and return starters galore (SJU 4, SLU 5) from a year ago. These two teams may still be another year away, but also good enough to not completely ignore.
Big East Conference (7)
“It Feels Great to be in the Field of 68”
Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
“It’s only November, we feel we’ll peak late”
Villanova, West Virginia
As much turmoil as the Big East is experiencing with its football membership, the basketball season might not provide the diversion the commissioner’s office would hope for as this appears to be a down year for the conference … Coming off a record 11 NCAA Tournament bids, the Big East lost over half of its starters from the 2010-11 season … Although defending national champion Connecticut is the slight preseason favorite to win the conference, I like the team Syracuse brings back for Jim Boeheim. Lots of talent and lots of depth could see the Orange Final Four bound for the first time since winning the title in 2003 … Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, and Marquette should all find their way into the field of 68 without much trouble… Notre Dame lost the heart and soul of its team to graduation (Ben Hansbrough), but with underrated Tim Abromaitis still aboard, the Fighting Irish should make its way back into the NCAA Field — although it is honestly a lukewarm endorsement at best … Loaded with inexperienced talent, Villanova and West Virginia have too many questions to answer early on to include them in the field presently.
Big Ten Conference (5)
“It Feels Great to be in the Field of 68”
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin
“It’s only November, we feel we’ll peak late”
Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, Iowa
I’ll admit that I chickened-out a bit when it came to handicapping the Big Ten for this season … For starters, Ohio State, Michigan, and Wisconsin should be locks for the tournament (although some would say that the Wolverines and Badgers have sizeable question marks heading into the season) … Michigan State wasn’t your typical Tom Izzo-led Spartan team you expect out of East Lansing year after year in 2010-11 … MSU had lots of “chemistry” issues that appear to be rectified heading into this season, Izzo’s team should be back on solid ground as far as NCAA Tournament talk … Indiana returns four starters and many expect this to be the year that they break back through to the top half of the Big Ten standings … The Hoosiers are seeking their first NCAA bid since Tom Crean took over as head coach (2008) … After those five teams, I pretty much just listed the rest of the league as potentially getting into the Big Dance. Terrible, I know… Each of the five teams listed above you can make a case for being NCAA-worthy and also why they should be an NIT team at best … Illinois lost three starters, but based on some of the same “chemistry” issues that MSU experienced, it could be a case of addition by subtraction for the Illini … Minnesota has a great frontcourt (Trevor Mbakwe and Ralph Sampson III), but who will get them the ball? The Golden Gopher backcourt will be very inexperienced … If Northwestern can find a way to replace “Juice” Thompson, they certainly have the other components necessary to make its first NCAA Tournament appearance in school history … Asking Purdue’s Robbie Hummel to play on one leg may be too much to ask. I’m a big fan of the job Boilermaker head coach Matt Painter does, so I’ve learned not to ever count his team out of the mix … Iowa has a great chance to improve under the second year leadership of Fran McCaffrey, but it would be a stretch to see them finish above .500 in league play for the first time since the 2006-07 season. They’re maybe a year away from making some serious noise … Even though I don’t project them into the NCAA field here’s a word or two about the chances of Nebraska in its first year of Big Ten play. Based on the style that head coach Doc Sadler’s team’s have played in past seasons and seem likely to play this year, it is more similar to Big Ten basketball than how it fit in the Big 12. With their defense-first, grind-it-out style the Cornhuskers could fare decently and may be able to even get, dare I say it, close to .500 in league play. But I think that is the ceiling for them. Look for Nebraska to be competitive, but around 6-12 in Big Ten play.
Big 12 Conference (6)
“It Feels Great to be in the Field of 68”
Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M
“It’s only November, we feel we’ll peak late”
Kansas State
Although there are zero Big 12 teams to be found in the Coaches’ Poll Preseason Top 10, one could argue that the 10-team (no Nebraska or Colorado) version of this league may be the best in the country from top to bottom … Baylor, Kansas, Missouri, and Texas A&M should all easily find themselves dancing in March … Even though Texas lost all five starters from a year ago, the infusion of talent Rick Barnes has brought in should have the Longhorns back in the field of 68 … Yes, I know that Iowa State finished in the Big 12 cellar last year. However, if transfers Chris Allen (Michigan State), Royce White (Minnesota), Chris Babb (Penn State), and Anthony Booker (Southern Illinois) all pan out, the Cyclones have a better than average chance to dance for the first time since 2005 … Kansas State returns three starters but overcoming the loss of “The Beard” (a.k.a. Jacob Pullen) could be too much for the Wildcats.
Colonial Athletic Association (1)
“It Feels Great to be in the Field of 68”
Drexel
“It’s only November, we feel we’ll peak late”
George Mason, VCU
The CAA is coming off a league record three NCAA bids last year and has sent two teams to the Final Four (VCU in 2011 and George Mason in 2006) in the last six years. However, it very easily could be back to one-bid status in 2011-12 … Drexel is the preseason favorite as they return six of their top seven players from a 21-10 squad … George Mason is coming off a 27-win season and first-year head coach Paul Hewitt (Georgia Tech) does return two starters, including senior Ryan Pearson (14 ppg) … VCU should have some momentum from its Final Four run to carry into this year’s campaign, but the Rams lost way too much to be a likely at-large contender.
Conference USA (4)
“It Feels Great to be in the Field of 68”
Central Florida, Marshall, Memphis, Tulsa
“It’s only November, we feel we’ll peak late”
n/a
This could be a huge breakthrough year for Conference USA, as I project four teams into the NCAA Tournament … UCF returns all five starters from last year’s up and down team that won its first 14 games before dropping eight in a row. The Knights righted the ship to win 21 contests overall before being ousted by Creighton in the CBI … Marshall is coming off a 24-win season and returns three starters. It has also scheduled up, playing non-league games at Cincinnati, Syracuse, and West Virginia while also playing likely NCAA-bound Belmont in a same-season home-and-home … Memphis appears on the way to returning as one of the elite teams in the nation as they bring back nearly everyone (including all five starters) from a 25-win 2010-11 team … Although Tulsa lost Justin Hurtt (20 ppg) to graduation, they return three players in Steven Idlet, Jordan Clarkson and Scottie Haralson who scored 10 or more a game last season. The Golden Hurricane looks poised to make their first NCAA field since 2003.
Horizon League (2)
“It Feels Great to be in the Field of 68”
Butler, Detroit
“It’s only November, we feel we’ll peak late”
n/a
So, I saw Butler play a few times during the regular season in 2010-11 and came away unimpressed, thinking that even when they did make the NCAA Tournament it would be a short stay for the Bulldogs. I was, well, very wrong. In a similar fashion to what I said about Purdue’s Matt Painter, I’ve learned not to doubt Butler’s Brad Stevens and his coaching abilities after back-to-back NCAA Championship game appearances. Fortunately, BU doesn’t play in the Big Ten (like Purdue), so finding its way back to the Big Dance is highly likely even though Stevens needs to find a way to replace the 32 points per game that all-Horizon League players Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard provided … Have you seen Ray McCallum play? He is really, REALLY, good. McCallum, along with preseason first-team all-Horizon teammates Eli Holman and Chase Simon, should have Detroit wearing its dancing shoes for the first time since 1999. The Titans return everyone, yes, everyone, from last season. More importantly, besides having a great chance to be that VCU-type team for 2012, they also have a schedule (at Notre Dame, at Alabama, Mississippi State) that could merit an at-large look if they can get some key non-league wins.
Missouri Valley Conference (3)
“It Feels Great to be in the Field of 68”
Evansville, Creighton, Wichita State
“It’s only November, we feel we’ll peak late”
Indiana State
(Takes a sip of MVC Kool-Aid before typing) No matter which magazine you read or on-line article you skim, Creighton seems to be the sexy pick to make a VCU-esque run in 2012 based on its runner-up CBI finish in 2011… Returning the likes of super-sophomore Doug McDermott (first freshman named first-team all-MVC since 1952), senior point guard Antoine Young (13.1 ppg; led MVC in assist/TO ratio for second straight year), and junior center Gregory Echenique (led MVC in field goal percentage and blocks) has the Bluejays primed for a breakout season … Coming off an impressive run that saw them defeat teams from four different BCS conferences on its way to the NIT title, Wichita State is looking to get back to the Big Dance for the first time since its Sweet 16 run in 2006. Although WSU only returns two starters from last year’s 29-win squad, one of them is all-MVC senior guard Toure’ Murry. Along with senior sharpshooter David Kyles and senior 7-footer Garrett Stutz, the Shockers are long on experience, which usually bodes well come March … Indiana State was the surprise winner of the MVC tournament a year ago, making its way to the NCAA’s for the first time in 10 years. Unfortunately for the Sycamores, they may have to go that route again as their non-conference slate is lacking. Yes, they are playing in the Old Spice Classic, but they run into what looks like a less than stellar field (hopefully they at least get a shot at Dayton). Other than a game at Vanderbilt, ISU-blue has exactly zero non-conference games against what should be postseason caliber teams … I couldn’t come up with another team in the country who has more on the line in the first week of the season than Evansville. The Purple Aces have a chance to make a statement as they open the season against NCAA runner-up Butler and Indiana — both at HOME! Win those two and you set yourself up for great things come March. Lose them both, and its already time to start thinking about next season. I like UE’s chances to start 2-0 and build momentum toward an NCAA berth.
Mountain West Conference (2)
“It Feels Great to be in the Field of 68”
New Mexico, UNLV
“It’s only November, we feel we’ll peak late”
n/a
Question: What does the Mountain West Conference look like without guys named “Jimmer” and “Kawhi”? Answer: A lot less like a three- or four-bid league. The sad reality is that mid-major leagues generally run in cycles and this seems to be the beginning of a downturn in what’s left of the MWC… New Mexico returns four starters and should be the run-away winner of this 8-team league. Although now guided by first year coach Dave Rice, UNLV also returns a solid nucleus that should have the Runnin’ Rebels dancing come March … After that, maybe, just maybe, you give a puncher’s chance to San Diego State. The Aztecs will have a hard time replacing all they lost (especially Leonard) from last year’s magical 34-3 season.
Pac-12 Conference (4)
“It Feels Great to be in the Field of 68”
Arizona, California, UCLA, Washington,
“It’s only November, we feel we’ll peak late”
Oregon, Stanford
I feel this is the one BCS league that I know very little about overall. So I asked a friend of mine, who also is a college hoops junkie, and, in a nutshell, he said that the Pac-12 has zero standout teams for the coming season. However, he also said that the league should be deeper than it has been the past few years and that you will likely find four or five NCAA Tournament-caliber teams. So from his mouth to my keyboard (that didn’t sound strange at all) here’s what the Pac-12 forecast looks like. Despite the noted preseason struggles of Arizona already this year (exhibition loss to Seattle Pacific), the Wildcats — along with California, UCLA, and Washington — all appear to have solid shots at making the field of 68 … He also considers Oregon to be on the rise but likely a year away, as the Ducks graduated quite a few players from its CBI Championship team last season … Lastly, he felt Stanford would be the sleeper team in the Pac-12 this year. The Cardinal is mostly young, but, talent-wise at or near the top of the league so says my Pac-12 friend.
Southeastern Conference (5)
“It Feels Great to be in the Field of 68”
Alabama, Florida, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Vanderbilt
“It’s only November, we feel we’ll peak late”
Auburn
Kentucky’s in. Vanderbilt’s in. Florida’s in. Those three teams will undoubtedly headline SEC basketball in 2011-12 … Alabama might have something to say about the who’s-who of the SEC as the Crimson Tide returns its three leading scorers (JaMychal Green, Tony Mitchell, and Trevor Releford) from last year’s NIT runner-up team … If Mississippi State doesn’t make it to the NCAA Tournament this season, it very well could cost head coach Rick Stansbury his job. They are not a lock by any means, but the Bulldogs (led by Dee Bost and Renardo Sidney) should have enough complimentary players to sneak their way into the Big Dance … To be frank, over the last five years Auburn has been one of the worst major conference basketball programs. The Tigers return four starters, and, with a lot of SEC teams likely in transition in 2011-12, could be talked about quite a bit as a bubble team come March (even if just based on the notion that they play in a BCS league).
West Coast Conference (2)
“It Feels Great to be in the Field of 68”
Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
“It’s only November, we feel we’ll peak late”
BYU, San Francisco, Santa Clara
The WCC has all the makings of a three-bid league in 2011-12, however it is up for grabs as to who that third team might be … Gonzaga and St. Mary’s should both be wearing its home white jerseys when it comes time to play its respective NCAA Tourney openers in 2012 … Not only did BYU lose the nation’s top scorer in Jimmer Fredette, they also lost 12.5 ppg man and all-around workhorse Jackson Emery. Forward Brandon Davies being reinstated to the program is a huge boost to the Cougars, who also have scheduled well enough out of conference (home vs. Baylor, at Virginia Tech, neutral site against Oregon, and a likely match-up against Wisconsin in the Chicago Invitational) to make them legitimate at-large contenders … Both San Francisco (returns all five starters from 19-win team) and Santa Clara (defending CIT champions and returns 20 ppg guard Kevin Foster) should have lots of wins in 2011-12, but the non-league slates for both schools are woeful. Because of non-conference schedules, it is sad to say in November that the only way USF or SCU make it to the Big Dance is by winning the conference tournament, but they are both very capable of doing so.
The One-Bid Leagues
The following conferences (18 of ‘em), pretty much no matter how you dissect it, will provide only one team to the 2012 NCAA Tournament… If you want a top 5 of “could get an at-large if they don’t get its league’s automatic bid”, then those schools would be Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Harvard (Ivy League), Iona (MAAC), Long Beach State (Big West), and Western Michigan (MAC).
America East – Boston University
Atlantic Sun – Belmont
Big South – UNC-Asheville
Big Sky – Montana
Big West – Long Beach State
Ivy league – Harvard
MAC – Western Michigan
MAAC – Iona
MEAC – Coppin State
Northeast – Long Island
Ohio Valley – Austin Peay
Patriot – Bucknell
Southern – College of Charleston
Southland – Texas-San Antonio
Summit – South Dakota State
Sun Belt – Arkansas State
SWAC – Jackson State
WAC – Hawaii
In a nutshell, the 2011-12 season has the opportunity to be a big year for the so-called mid-major schools as nearly every BCS league appears to be in a downward trend from last year. I have projected 10 at-large bids for the mid-majors, which would be the most since 2004.
I also see only three elite teams (North Carolina, Kentucky, and Ohio State) heading into the 2011-12 season, so seeing yet another mid-major make into the Final Four would not surprise me one bit.
“The Bracketeer” will be back sometime in January with his first guesses at how the 2012 NCAA bracket might look come Selection Sunday. I don’t know about you, but I can hardly wait for the college hoops season to get underway.