Game 1 (Noon): #1 Illinois State (23-6, 16-2) vs. Indiana State (17-13, 7-11)
Season Series
Illinois State dominated the Sycamores in both games this season, with a 69-53 win in Terre Haute and a 90-61 pasting in Normal. Ashleen Bracey and Maggie Krick were prominent in both games. The Sycamores struggled with the Redbirds’ defense. Indiana State has now lost five straight games against the Redbirds.
Illinois State will win if …
…They are ready to play. Illinois State has won outright back-to-back regular season titles and is the #1 seed in this tournament for the third straight season. So, they know the drill. The Redbirds’ only conference losses this season have been against Creighton, and with their dominance of Indiana State in the past they should coast if they are ready to play.
Indiana State will win if …
…They can keep the Redbirds off the free-throw line and stop Bracey. Illinois State is 2nd in the nation in free-throw percentage, so if the Sycamores get down late, it might not help to foul. Bracey garnered player of the week honors for a season-high fourth time during the last week of the regular season averaging 24.5 points a game, including a career high 32 against Drake, and shooting almost 66% from the field.
Game 2 (2:30 p.m.): #4 Bradley (16-12, 12-6) vs. #5 Northern Iowa (14-15, 10-8)
Season Series
The teams split the season series, with each squad winning on their home court. Bradley got the win in mid January 74-62, which secured Paula Buscher’s place in the record books as the winningest coach in Bradley women’s basketball history. Katie Yohn came off the bench to score 18 points, going 6-of-8 from 3-point range. A month later in Cedar Falls, Northern Iowa hit 12 3-pointers and went on a 31-6 run to put the game away early. Lizzie Boeck led five players in double-figures to pace the Panthers in that one.
Bradley will win if …
…They play some stingy defense. MVC Defensive Player of the Year Sonya Harris leads the league in blocks and offensive rebounds, and she pulled down double-digit rebound totals in 16 games. As a team Bradley averages 5 blocks a game.
UNI will win if …
…They can get to the free throw line. Like other teams in the conference, Northern Iowa is almost automatic from the line. Kim Wypiszynski hit a league-best 44 free throws in a row at one point in the season and is 12th in the nation in free throw percentage. Teammate Jacqui Kalin is 4th in the nation, shooting 90.5%. Kalin, a first team All-Valley player, also led the team in scoring during the conference season at more than 17 points a game.
Game 3 (6:0o p.m.) #2 Creighton (18-9, 13-5) vs. #7 Drake (15-14, 7-11)
Season Series
See our recap in our MVC preview.
Creighton wins if…
…they can shoot the ball well. In a scoring contest, Creighton has a lot of weapons. However, at times the Bluejays have either all been on fire or cold as can be. They lead the Valley in 3-pointers made per game (7.3). It will be important that Chevelle Herring establishes herself early, which will create more for opportunities for Megan Neuvirth and Sam Schuett. Herring was just 9-43 from the field last season in the MVC Tournament and went through a bad slump during the 2009-2010 regular season. It will be key for her to realize whether she needs to score or dish the ball to make the Bluejays successful.
Drake wins if…
…They can hit 3-pointers. Drake is 13th in the nation in three-point percentage at 37.8%. In their last matchup in Des Moines a couple weeks ago, Drake was only 1-8 from downtown. Jordann Plummer also has to have another big night. Last night in only 26 minutes against Evansville in the opening round, Plummer had 20 points, 10 rebounds, 6 assists, and 4 steals. And it is always tough for one team (Creighton) to beat another team (Drake) three times in one season.
Game 4 (8:30 p.m.) #3 Missouri State (20-9, 12-6) vs. #6 Wichita State (16-13, 8-10)
Season Series
Despite Missouri State being the #3 seed in the MVC Tournament, the Shockers got the best of them during the regular season by sweeping the season series against the Bears (92-85 in Springfield and 73-65 in Wichita). The closest Missouri State came to beating WSU was when MVC Player of the Year Casey Garrison took the ball the length of the court to hit a basket to send the game in Springfield to overtime before Wichita scored the first 8 points of extra time, taking Missouri State out of the contest.
Missouri State wins if….
…They hit their 3-pointers. Missouri State is 12th in the nation in 3-point field goal percentage at 38%. In the two losses to Wichita State, the Bears only shot 11-32 from 3-point range at just over 34%. That may not seem like much, but if the Bears hit their season average, they pull out the wins against Wichita State.
Wichita State wins if…
…Marisah Henderson can distribute the ball. In the two regular season wins against the Shockers, Henderson averaged 9.5 assists per game. Though she is not a scorer she knows how to distribute the ball, with 162 assists on the season. Plus, she’s 2nd on the team in rebounds. The ability for one player to grab the rebound and then streak the ball up the court with great vision can create a lot of fast break opportunities, which could neutralize any performance by Missouri State’s Garrison.